Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:12 am
Mathematical Probability
To: All
From: Portland Lumberjacks (danno)
Date: Friday, 5/13/2016 3:04pm
Fred Pali:
I am aeronautical engineer with an M.S. in Political Science. Much of my education includes training and using mathematical probability, statistics, etc. I kind of know what I'm talking about.
You don't seem to be following me here.
If you play the SOM baseball computer version, the computer program is biased not to exceed the total number of actual wins. You may win +/- 2 or more games and that's about it. If you over play a player or insert your own made up player, Peter robs from Paul to accommodate those statistics. I.E. Barry Bonds won't hit 70+ HR's because the program will take some of his performance stats and give them to the over played player or your made up player. The point is that the entire team's performance is limited by actual team performance. That alone negates the purpose of playing the game. The purpose of playing SOM is to take a team and make them OUT PERFORM. The SOM computer program won't allow you to do that without basically cheating like hell.
All that I am saying is that the 365 League that we are playing has a similar bias incorporated. Wins are limited by the program. This is proven true because the program cannot be left open to infinity and must have a finite number of wins. Player stats accommodate those wins. Those who do win in this league are done by chance with little to no skill involved. SOM assigns the winning teams by chance prior to the season starting. The winning teams will be allowed to win just enough games to get into the playoffs. All other teams will be limited regardless of what they do.
I have tried to put this into simple terms so even a dolt like you can understand. You are the one making this personal and attacking me. I love baseball and have been involved in the game on many levels including professional. I think I know a little about the game. I know about mathematics and I have been playing SOM since 1966.
I just threw this out there for you guys to mull over and tell me what you think. I did not expect a personal attack from jackasses like Fred. Part of this is mixing it up and discussing baseball, strategy, gaming, etc. with the other guys. Apparently, some of you aren't in that frame of mind. No problem. I'm at the bottom of the league and I'll do what I can to play "spoiler."
At the end of the season I will fade away. I can't see wasting money to be engaged in this rigged system. I am telling you, there is little to no skill involved here. SOM is ripping off people playing in this league.
I'm just going to expand this a little more to emphasize my point.
If you build a team that has superb pitching with about 95 total wins. An ERA under 3.00. Less hits than innings pitched for every pitchers. A superb relief staff, etc.
Choose position players with high OBP, high RBI, fast run ratings, excellent defense, and back up players who are also good players, that will not guarantee that you will have a winning team. You can use the best strategy, micro-manage, etc., and no matter what you do, it just doesn't make any difference. That's because your team is slated to win "x" amount of games no matter what you do.
Some of you are a little anal. You are fixated on this "good season / bad season" thing. That's fine for ONE PLAYER but not an entire team. The chances of every top player being in his "bad season" are not probable. If you trade them away, the replacement player is also in his "bad season." What in the hell are the chances of that happening? Little to none. Therefore, I say again, the season, winning teams, are rigged. Those who get a winning team are PURELY by chance and it has NOTHING to do with skill.
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