How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

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wavygravy2k

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How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostFri Oct 07, 2016 5:33 pm

Is there a chart that I can refer to that would help show how a player's sim fielding percentage stacks up with his fielding rating?

Through 24 games, Darryl Strawberry (BTT80's rf-3(-2)e8 ) has 3 errors with a .947 fielding percentage. To me, it seems like this is a string of bad ruck with rolls but without some sort of chart I'm not able to tell.

It's been a while since I've used it but I don't think Dean's chart would tell me but I might be mistaken.
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coyote303

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostFri Oct 07, 2016 10:06 pm

This chart will tell you how much someone can be expected to get on base against any position (and also total bases).

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

However, figuring out expected fielding percentage is tricky because there are so many variables that affect how many routine fielding chances (e.g., flyball B) a fielder will get throughout the season.

The error rating is how many errors you can expect a fielder to make during a season if he plays every inning of every game. So, that's probably your best way to tell if you've been unlucky with errors. That being said, outfielders can get errors on throws because of the maximum rules in effect for our online game. It's not clear if chances for regular errors are adjusted downward to account for these additional errors.
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MARCPELLETIER

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostMon Oct 10, 2016 4:10 pm

Actually, a rule of thumb that works fine is that the e-rating reflects the sum of errors a player will make in roughly 150 games. And this works fine for all positions except catchers (you have to incorporate T-ratings for them).

So a player with a e8 will on average 8 errors if he plays full time and has a 1-injury (599 PA or less; maybe 9 errors if he's a 1-injury (600 PA or more). It might be a bit more for outfielders in ATG, since SOM incorporates some throwing errors in the computer engine, which may happen more than expected against aggressive running teams, and there seems to be more running in ATG than in 200X. But I wouldn't add more than 10%

So 3 errors in a stretch of 24 games seems definitively high.

As for defensive pct, it's based mostly on out locations mostly found on pitchers and offensive cards, so it's totally unreliable (the more fly(rf) you find on a pitcher card, the better defensive pct a player will have, regardless of his defensive quality).
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wavygravy2k

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostSat Oct 15, 2016 11:22 am

Through 45 games Strawberry now has 7 errors! That's a .931 fielding percentage. I compared this with a handful of other seasons and no other season does Strawberry even come close to so many errors.

I'm gonna put him at DH for a few games.
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coyote303

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostMon Oct 17, 2016 8:16 pm

wavygravy2k wrote:Through 45 games Strawberry now has 7 errors! That's a .931 fielding percentage. I compared this with a handful of other seasons and no other season does Strawberry even come close to so many errors.

I'm gonna put him at DH for a few games.


Why? His card is no different than any other season.
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wavygravy2k

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostTue Oct 18, 2016 3:57 pm

I know it's not a big difference but Benzinger is a little better fielder: rf-3(0)e5. Straws arm is better, though.

I just can't stand seeing that error in RF so many times. Ironically, Benzinger has 4 errors through 28 games.
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gutter huggers

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostMon Dec 12, 2016 8:44 am

the fielding page looks interesting. What does per AB, H+E, etc refer to, what ratio? Thanks!
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milleram

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Re: How to determine expected sim fielding percentage

PostMon Dec 12, 2016 6:41 pm

If you watch the game replays--you can tell if it is throwing errors adding up (unless it is a mystery set) by paying attention to the rolls--obviously if it is not a roll to the RF-X chart it is a throwing error on a runner trying to take an extra base or score. With a minus 4 arm I doubt too many are throwing errors from running for extra bases, but you never know unless you look.

I would leave that arm in RF regardless of how many errors he has made--some seasons the odds never evens out.

On that fielding page those are On Base + total bases allowed in card chances--a 1 base error allowed is the same as a single allowed on that chart, and so on with Doubles/2base errors....---remember a fielder is in the field for every opposing AB so they tend to add up--it is similar to the OB+total bases added together in the offensive ratings guide if you have it.

RF A might have 30 On Base and 40 TB offensively and allow 15 per game defensively-- a net of +55
RF B might have 35 On base and 45 TB but allow 30 defensively -- a net of +50

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