Value of a good arm?

I am looking at center field, and have 2 excellent options.
My team is in a high cap league and Sportsmans Park (20 BPHR for LH hitters)

I have either
Duke Snider at $10.70 mil who is 1(-2)e5
or
Earl Averill at $10.73 mil who is 1(0)e9

Averill will hit for a higher OPS at home (1.621 vs 1.556 on the batter card), Snider will run better (1-16 plus a SB threat vs 1-11 with no SB) and have slightly fewer non-throwing errors.

My thought is that more runners would try to score on Averill and his zero arm.

Will the -2 arm likely save enough runs to make up the hitting difference?

I'd like to hear everyone's opinion.
Thanks

Duke has a lot fewer gb(a) chances.

Hey Doc,
I've had much better results offensively from Averill, consistently, enough that he would be my choice if I had to pick one. I'd try to have a -3 or -4 arm in RF with Averill so the baserunners don't go wild. If you have them both, I'd start Averill in LF and Snider in CF. I would also consider using the -3 Snider card if your division mates line up favorably with his slant and the better arm.

Larry Walker 1(-4)e2 will be RF, Turkey Stearnes 1(0)e7 in LF (and cf backup)

Right now I have Duke on the roster but Averill 0.63 card preseason (can upgrade for free before Monday)

I agree Averill should hit better, but despite playing many seasons, do not have a good handle on how much a CF arm is worth.

It is a tough question. It doesn't seem to me that better arms necessarily throw out more runners, from years of perusing their assists and dp's. The major value in good arms seems to be in deterring opponents from even trying for the extra base. A lot also depends on the parks you are playing against. With small ball teams, every base means more so the rule of thumb that I have used is to have good arms in the OF against such teams. On the other hand I will often have a +2 in lf and good arms in center and right. By having a mix of arms you don't have managers making radical changes to their baserunning strategies and may actually nail more runners that way. FWIW, in your park I would probably prefer Snider to Averill, but I'm not a huge Averill fan. Snider has better power and speed and that, for me, tips the scale in his favor in your current park.

Averill will hit for a higher OPS at home (1.621 vs 1.556 on the batter card), Snider will run better (1-16 plus a SB threat vs 1-11 with no SB) and have slightly fewer non-throwing errors.

...And Snider has a better clutch and less gbA. Plus, Averill's arm will be tested more frequently than Snider so he is likely to have more throwing errors in addition to more non-throwing errors. The peripherals make Snider a better card in my opinion. This said, with Stearns who can handle centerfield, the better choice among lefty bat who can play outfield in the 10M-11M range would be Musial. I would try to do a straight up trade to get him. Musial is a natural lf, so you don't lose money playing in left field someone who was priced to be a centerfielder.

It doesn't seem to me that better arms necessarily throw out more runners, from years of perusing their assist and of dp's. The major value in good arms seems to be in deterring opponents from even trying for the extra base.

It is true that runners are less likely to test a -2 arm, and this has the consequence that more runners may be thrown out by a 0 arm. But the overall percentage of runners who are safe when tested is still lower with the -2 arm, so overall, there is still a slight advantage to have a -2 arm, in my opinion, but I agree it's rather small. What really hurts is when you have a +2 or worse arm in centerfield, the relationship between arm value and defensive impact is then exponential.

The clear advantage of having a -2 arm vs 0 is when you have a fast runner at second base and other bases empty, with a slow hitter hitting a single, when it's still early in the game. In such scenarios, the play is almost automatically at the plate with the hitter sticking to first base. Having a -2 arm will increase your out chances by 10% in most cases. If the hitter is very fast, then it's more likely that the throw will be intercepted, regardless of the arm value.

With regard to the throwing arm strength here’s what I came up with many, many years ago. Snider’s -2 arm has a defensive value of -1.5 expected runs per 700 PA. Averill’s 0 arm results in +7.7 runs per 700 PA or 9.2 runs more than the Duke’s per season. Center fielders arms come into play twice that of a left or right fielder thus have greater impact.
When including errors Averill’s total defensive difference is 13.2 expected runs a season.
When evaluating arm strength value I like to look at the Leagues speed and their likelihood of testing arms.
So take this for what it is worth and since it is free………

Maxie

I've thought for a few years now what Druid is saying about the deterrent value of the big OF arms, particularly in CF and RF, but I can't offer any evidence to support it. I do always see a lower number of steal attempts when I play Ivan Rodriguez at catcher, and I've figured that the -5 arm just keeps HAL from attempting to steal much of the time, depending on the opponents settings. The success rates aren't stunningly lower, there are just half as many attempts. I figure that the OF arms affect the game in a similar way.

I've thought for a few years now what Druid is saying about the deterrent value of the big OF arms, particularly in CF and RF, but I can't offer any evidence to support it. I do always see a lower number of steal attempts when I play Ivan Rodriguez at catcher, and I've figured that the -5 arm just keeps HAL from attempting to steal much of the time, depending on the opponents settings. The success rates aren't stunningly lower, there are just half as many attempts. I figure that the OF arms affect the game in a similar way.

My experience is that certainly the catcher arm impacts steal attempts. My observation is that it is somewhere between 10-25 attempts for every variation up or down of 1 point in catcher rating depending on the opposition. (And the worse the arm, the greater impact the T rating makes)

The OF arm impact does not seem as linear (the wise commentary above does make sense to me for that point). However, I assume that CF is the spot in the OF where the arm would be tested most.

Great thoughts from everyone...and thanks (fwiw Stan The Man is my all time favorite player....he is taken and not likely to become available)

Thanks,
Doc

....more comments appreciated if you have them

Nothing about OF arms is linear. There is very little difference between a -4, and a -5, and less between a -5 and -6. RF arm is also way more important than LF arm because of the adjustment for going from 1st to 3rd on a single when given a choice of going or holding up. CF arm is far and away the most important, though, since your CF gets half of the failed BP homers and also more X-chart chances and open singles and doubles.

I, too, would choose Snider over Averill in a lefty park. In fact, I would happily use the little Snider card if it meant I could squeeze a million dollar upgrade onto my roster somewhere useful.