Game 7

http://www.strat-o-matic.com/community/ ... -cleveland

FWIW, the strat365 simulation this year was pretty spot on until it got to game six. The only thing HAL doesn't account for is the overuse of Kluber, Tomlin, Bauer, Miller and Chapman. Tired arms plus hitters adjusting quickly from seeing the same guys so often isn't accounted for in the cards, and hence, isn't accounted for in simulation.

IMHO, pitching to Rizzo would have been insanity. I would take my chances with Zobrist and Montero any day rather than let Rizzo beat me with one swing of a bat that was already pretty hot.

Maddon did what no other Cub manager did for 108 years.

http://www.strat-o-matic.com/community/announcements/2016-world-series-simulation-chicago-nl-vs-cleveland

FWIW, the strat365 simulation this year was pretty spot on until it got to game six. The only thing HAL doesn't account for is the overuse of Kluber, Tomlin, Bauer, Miller and Chapman. Tired arms plus hitters adjusting quickly from seeing the same guys so often isn't accounted for in the cards, and hence, isn't accounted for in simulation.

IMHO, pitching to Rizzo would have been insanity. I would take my chances with Zobrist and Montero any day rather than let Rizzo beat me with one swing of a bat that was already pretty hot.

Agree that the Strat365 simulation is pretty great. They got:

- The Indians shut out in game 1;
- The Cubs scoring five times as many runs as the Indians in game 2;
- The Indians 1-0 win in game 3 exactly(!);
- The Indians winning game 4; and
- The Cubs coming back with a close win in game 5.

I do wonder if "hitters adjusting quickly from seeing the same guys so often" is a real phenomenon. It seems like it would be difficult to separate it from pitcher fatigue and it's certainly possible to come up with exceptions: Madison Bumgarner in the 2014 World Series being the recent example that immediately springs to mind.

I certainly understand the impulse to walk Rizzo. If he had batted in the winning run and then Zobrist and Montero had gotten out, Cleveland fans would have been all over Francona: "Why did you pitch to Rizzo?" I don't think it was a no-brainer, though, and - hindsight being 20/20 - it turned out to be a bad move. As I said in my first post, I would be interested in seeing results of someone running simulations of that particular situation: the percentage of times that the Indians win if they walk Rizzo vs. the percentage of times that the Indians win if they pitch to him.

I have no doubt that running a sim on that particular situation leads to Rizzo making an out more often than not. That's just the basic baseball statistic that favors the pitcher in general.

However...

The intangibles are too much to overcome.

Rizzo: National League MVP candidate, swinging a bat getting hotter with each appearance, with big home run power. The biggest player in the biggest situation. My take is, I'll make Zobrist beat me (certainly more favorable odds for me) and gamble on maybe getting a double play. As it is, it didn't work out.

And that's the fun of second guessing...when it doesn't work out.

I love Maddon and love everything about him, esp the way he handled this season. However, in Game 7, I disagreed with just about every single decision he made! Did we win despite him? Maybe. But he won!

Bonus aside: I'm a life-long Chicago sports fan, and I esp like Blackhawks hockey. If you know anything about Joel Quennville, you know that that he basically makes hilariously terrible decisions all year long, but in an elimination game he does what should have been common sense in the first place, the Hawks subsequently win, and Quennville gets "credited" for a "gutsy coaching adjustment".

My wife is quick to point out my zero rings to the Q's three. I retort that given the chance to coach the last six Hawks teams, I'd have six rings!!

Back to Maddon. I think Krukow is unfortunately right. This wacky cult of personality thing where coaches have to leave traces of evidence, i.e. fingerprints, on a World Championship team leads to unnecessary over-analysis and over-managing.

Just the opinion of one man, happy to take his Championship anyway he could get it though.

Joe Maddon rocks!

I've been away from home the past couple of days. Congrats to all the Chicago Cubs fans here on SOM. Great comeback. Great season. I thought the Indians had em' at 3-1. Maddon's overuse of Chapman aside. I thought Francona's biggest miscue was starting Bauer - who was the only Indians Pitcher the Cubs hit well through the 1st 5 games. It gave the Cubs hitters life and that IMO is what turned the series around - As the Cubs bats woke up, just as they did in the Dodgers series.

With Salazar back and fresh, with that great pen and the Cubs bats cold as ice, I think Salazar would have been a different look for 4, 5 or 6 innings. But the Cubs found a way to do it - despite Chapman's overwork - especially with a 5 and then a 7 run lead. He threw as many pitches Sunday and Tuesday as a starter over 5-6 innings. I thought that was a huge blunder and would work in Cleveland's favor in game 7. And it certainly did. Hats off to the Cubs. And congrats on killing that ridiculous curse.

Mike Krukow agrees.

"The Cubs won this thing despite over-managing from Joe Maddon. It was awful. It was awful," Krukow said on KNBR 680. "It was the arrogance that he was trying to put his signature on what was gonna happen. And it happened despite taking out Hendricks early, taking out Lester early, putting in Chapman when he was tired.

"And the bunt with 3-2? You're gonna be smarter than the game? I was so outraged at what I was watching ... look, he's done a great job, granted. I mean come on. He's done a great job. He was the guy that kept them going down three games to one ... but at some point in time, you cannot be arrogant enough to think that you have to put your signature on the game.

"And to me, that's what he was doing. It didn't make sense. He was not reading the room. He was not managing this game as it should have been managed. I just wanted to slap the guy. As it turned out, they won despite him, despite his over-managing. And it'll be forgotten by a lot of people, but it won't be forgotten by me and a lot of people."

it was a great game, and a fitting end to an enjoyable season. the only glaringly stupid move was chapman in game 6. i didn't agree with hendricks coming out (after hal robbed him of strike 3 looking) in the 5th, but if the next guy homers he gets hammered for leaving him in. what ensued with lester and ross was comical. i really thought ross was out on his feet after getting clocked in the head. i wouldn't be surprised if years later it comes out that he was only able to homer off of miller because he was too dazed to realize it was impossible.
the 2 strike squeeze also pissed me off. obviously it pissed off baez too. his feeble effort, and body language after, told us exactly what he thought of the call. thats a move hal tries and i spit my coffee on the wall.

in the end they won it like so many other games this year, they were just too good to lose. not lost on my was the child like giddeness of chapman afterwards. not imo because he just won a ring, but that he had walked right into chicago lore with bartman, and the goat, and alex gonzalez, and came out clean on the other side.

Hadn't seen Krukow's quote before, thanks for planting wavy. I agree 100% with him. Maddon's got some great managerial attributes, but from the Rays to the Cubs, I've seen him make head scratching moves like that over and over. Smh - they won the World Series though...

I'm sick of the Joe Maddon cult following. Want to know the reason the Cubs won? They have the best and deepest roster in baseball. The only thing Maddon did was introduce MLB to Wild Kingdom. His antics are tiresome and take away the focus from what it should be on, the players. Bryant, Lester, Rizzo, Russell, Chapman, etc....That's the reason they won. Hell, even Matt Williams couldn't screw up this team. The credit goes to the players, Theo and Jed for putting them together, and to the Oakland A's, Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres for being idiots(Shhh....your world series shares and rings are in the mail).

Need to throw some credit toward Theo for not going all in last year and trading Baez, Russell, Contreras, Schwarber, Grimm, Hendricks and any other prospect desired by other teams. That patience is part of why the Cubs were what they were this year.

I think of what my Rangers might have been this year with a little less aggression over the last 5 years shipping out prospects in vain attempt to get back and win WS. I am especially frustrated how much we gave away this year so we could get swept out by the Jays.

I see so many teams every year think they are close and throw away the future for that one year run and then spend the next half a decade recovering so they can get close again. Gotta recognize the difference between a team that is close but still a couple years away and one that is ready now so an addition like Miller or Chapman can put you over the top.