NLD 43 - Check in for NLD44

My team started out 1-9, also had another stretch right after that of 3-8, but now this squad is trying to get back in the WC race winning 18 of 24. I hope my squad is more similar to this recent team than the other team. I did make a good decision to stand pat with no moves during that early stretch. I was convinced this team as is could compete.

BTW, I know I just jinxed us.

The wild card contest could be "very interesting." Four teams with 52 wins and three at 51.

My team started out 1-9, also had another stretch right after that of 3-8, but now this squad is trying to get back in the WC race winning 18 of 24. I hope my squad is more similar to this recent team than the other team. I did make a good decision to stand pat with no moves during that early stretch. I was convinced this team as is could compete.

BTW, I know I just jinxed us.

LOL. I guess we'll see. I know my team has been up and down too Jeep. A very strange season for the Blue Ox.

Ok, an early Christmas presents for you boys. Here are the ratings compared to the actuals.

What do you think?

All the stats

Code: Select all

Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Spider.   7269   4653   174   4827   2442   W
JoeTJet   7794   5103   288   5391   2403   W
Smokey.   7934   5019   515   5534   2400   C
nythawk   7292   4515   394   4909   2383   C
Stoney.   7579   4856   395   5251   2327   E
BigAlrc   7236   4954   38    4992   2244   C
SemperG   7578   4955   403   5359   2219   W
Jeep...   7910   5189   515   5705   2205   E
Doug...   7895   5313   573   5886   2009   E
Gbrooke   7792   5384   412   5795   1997   E
Falcon.   7690   5199   740   5939   1751   W
Dale...   7357   5579   225   5804   1553   C


Overall - The numbers are really close except that Falcon and Dale are WAY over where the ratings predict. Most of the rest are close

Code: Select all

Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Spider.   2442   3   4   -1   
JoeTJet   2403   3   3   0   
Smokey.   2400   3   3   0   
nythawk   2383   3   5   -2   
Stoney.   2327   4   3   1   
BigAlrc   2244   5   7   -2   
SemperG   2219   5   4   1   
Jeep...   2205   5   6   -1   
Doug...   2009   7   9   -2   
Gbrooke   1997   7   6   1   
Falcon.   1751   10   3   7   
Dale...   1553   12   6   6   


Offense - The numbers here are really, really close. Only Falcon is a fair amount above where the ratings predict.

Code: Select all

Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif
Smokey.   7934   2   2   0
Jeep...   7910   2   1   1
Doug...   7895   2   3   -1
JoeTJet   7794   3   2   1
Gbrooke   7792   3   3   0
Falcon.   7690   4   1   3
Stoney.   7579   5   6   -1
SemperG   7578   5   4   1
Dale...   7357   7   8   -1
nythawk   7292   8   8   0
Spider.   7269   8   8   0
BigAlrc   7236   9   9   0


Pitching + D - The actuals here are so close that it's really hard to differentiate. There are six teams within 16 runs allowed so..... What we can say is that Dale, and Falcon (there he is again) should be much, much worse according to the ratings. Haven't taken time to look at why that is. Some others who are getting better p+f than expected are Smoke, GB and Doug. The rest aren't too bad. As I said, with the actuals so close the numbers get a little wonky.

Code: Select all

Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Spider.   4827   1   2   -1   
nythawk   4909   2   4   -2   
BigAlrc   4992   3   4   -1   
Stoney.   5251   5   4   1   
SemperG   5359   6   4   2   
JoeTJet   5391   6   4   2   
Smokey.   5534   8   4   4   
Jeep...   5705   10   7   3   
Gbrooke   5795   11   7   4   
Dale...   5804   11   4   7   
Doug...   5886   12   8   4   
Falcon.   5939   12   7   5   


I did take the time to do the fielding which is pretty close. Jet is a good distance below and Falcon is above where he should be, BUT, I don't think Falcon really is, because a lot of his pathetic fielding is his +4 catcher and this comparison really doesn't look at the catcher's arm (they usually aren't THIS bad)

Code: Select all

Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif
BigAlrc   38   1   1   0
Spider.   174   3   2   1
Dale...   225   3   3   0
JoeTJet   288   4   7   -3
nythawk   394   6   7   -1
Stoney.   395   6   7   -1
SemperG   403   6   6   0
Gbrooke   412   6   7   -1
Smokey.   515   8   6   2
Jeep...   515   8   9   -1
Doug...   573   9   9   0
Falcon.   740   12   9   3


I did take the time to do the fielding which is pretty close. Jet is a good distance below and Falcon is above where he should be, BUT, I don't think Falcon really is, because a lot of his pathetic fielding is his +4 catcher and this comparison really doesn't look at the catcher's arm (they usually aren't THIS bad)

Well there are only 2 teams with less errors than my team, and despite Conger's +4 arm, 5 teams have worse OSB%.
However, it's not lost on me that my team isn't called the Pylons for nothing!

Thanks Joe! I'm missing some usually staples in my rotation but trout and Donaldson have been nails.

The west is nuts!

Nice look at the ratings, Joe. Somehow my team hasn't heard how well they are doing - now 9 games out.

Thanks for posting the ratings1

What can I say? The ratings for my team are looking better than my team is playing. I was too lofty and arrogant in building my team, especially with the bench, and JTJ was right with his non-judging judgement. Period.

Falcon, what you say is true, but remember, errors only show part of what happens on the X Chart. You have 3's at SS and 2b which means you're giving up twice as many hits as a team with 2's at the same spots. In addition, you're missing out on DPs that you would normally get. I don't even account for that in the actuals (they *are* factored into the ratings) so go an compare your DP (which are, of course, also affected by the pitchers) and hit numbers. Conger is mitigated somewhat because you have some decent holds in 3/5's of your rotation, but you have given up more steals than any team in the league, Jeep is neck and neck with you, but no one else is particularly close. OSB% is only a part of the equation. That said, I need to adjust my comparison to include pitcher's hold and fielding. Right now, they are factored into the ratings, but NOT the comparison I do to fielding. Maybe in the offseason.

Smoke, Yeah, the west appears to be the best division this time around all four teams are in the running for a playoff spot.

Spidey, well, part of the problem with your rating is that your rotation is SO top heavy. It kind of skews things when teams are unbalanced in someway, causes more variation from the ratings because, I think, luck is a bigger factor. So teams that are Park dependent or hit one side WAY better than another, or are awesome (or lousy) in the field, tend to have more variation.

Big A, I hope I didn't offend you, I was just trying to point out the tradeoffs in a .50 bench. I haven't done the injury comparison yet. Maybe I'll see if I can get to that today.

Falcon, what you say is true, but remember, errors only show part of what happens on the X Chart. You have 3's at SS and 2b which means you're giving up twice as many hits as a team with 2's at the same spots. In addition, you're missing out on DPs that you would normally get. I don't even account for that in the actuals (they *are* factored into the ratings) so go an compare your DP (which are, of course, also affected by the pitchers) and hit numbers. Conger is mitigated somewhat because you have some decent holds in 3/5's of your rotation, but you have given up more steals than any team in the league, Jeep is neck and neck with you, but no one else is particularly close. OSB% is only a part of the equation. That said, I need to adjust my comparison to include pitcher's hold and fielding. Right now, they are factored into the ratings, but NOT the comparison I do to fielding. Maybe in the offseason.

Through 120 games I did an update of my fielding "actuals" which factor in OF assists (-1.48), GDPs (-0.29), Errors (0+0.48) X Hits (+0.48), X Outs (-0.97), SB (+0.32), CS (-0.58), and PBs (+0.32). I'm trying to calculate Runs impact:

BigA - 22
Dale - 20
Spider -17
Semper + 9
Geoff + 12
Stoney +17
Nighthawk +20
Doug +20
JTJ +21
Smokey +22
Jeep +34
Falcon +34

Smoke, Yeah, the west appears to be the best division this time around all four teams are in the running for a playoff spot.

Spidey, well, part of the problem with your rating is that your rotation is SO top heavy. It kind of skews things when teams are unbalanced in someway, causes more variation from the ratings because, I think, luck is a bigger factor. So teams that are Park dependent or hit one side WAY better than another, or are awesome (or lousy) in the field, tend to have more variation.

I agree, my team is very vulnerable to "luck" factors. I'm down 10 in 1-run games and down in rolls both for pitching and hitting. I actually expected my fielding actuals to be worse than above, because my pitching should keep runners off base and give fewer opportunities for impact from factors with runners on (GDPs, OF assists, SB, CS, PBs).

Big A, I hope I didn't offend you, I was just trying to point out the tradeoffs in a .50 bench. I haven't done the injury comparison yet. Maybe I'll see if I can get to that today.