The Big Post for 2016

I think Mark would appreciate the feedback we provide, and hope that if he finds time, he will jump into the discussion here and there. I'll forward a few blurbs that he posted in our league to get the discussion moving forward. If the conversation devolves, I'll just move us back into the direction of winning 2015 card set strategies.

There's still quite a bit of time left until the Tour Finals draft is complete, and I hope this can be a productive way to fill some time in the meanwhile.

For those of you that don't know me, I have helped in pricing the cards for a significant number of years now. The model currently used for pricing is one I developed as a user of the game to evaluate the card set. I have tried on occasion to start public threads to discuss pricing but they quickly devolve and become useless.

So I thought I would start some threads here, explain how the cards are currently priced and will gladly answer any questions. I am always looking for good feedback that can be used to upgrade pricing.

Mark

The first step in pricing the cards is to convert the raw data into an output that can be measured, in this case runs. I use the linear weight formula inspired by Paul Johnson called estimated runs produced. I might have tweaked the values over the years, but here is the basics:

BB & HBP=.32
Hit=.1589
TB=.32
SB=.19
Out= (.0979)

In valuing a card I do not use all of the details on the card, I use only the details provided in SOM's data disk. Therefore I do not differentiate between fly ball, K, etc. when it comes to outs. Double plays are a different matter.

Derived results:

While most results on the card are always the same result, certain card results are contingent on the situation (i.e. clutch, double plays, stolen bases) or on the ball park for the triangles and diamonds on the cards.

Also in deriving results I also make an estimate for the average pitcher, since 50% of the rolls come from the pitchers card. The reason I do this is for three primary reasons:

1)Impacts of weak on the hitters card changes the pitchers card results so the assumption you make about the average pitcher impacts this value

2)I have the ability to change the average pitcher based on the match up, so I can weight a RH pitcher tougher against righties than lefties, etc. This inherently builds in some added value for switch hitters

3) Forecasting stolen bases- stolen bases is a function of first getting on base, so I find adding in the pitchers card helps refine the estimate.

Mark

Here are the assumptions made in the model to derive situational results:

Clutch- I assume that only 10% of the time will the clutch situation be present (i.e. two outs with a runner in scoring position) when a clutch roll is made. I convert outs to singles or singles to outs based on this probability times the clutch probability. Also jumping ahead a little, I also value the clutch event differently for runs value since it is situational, but more on that later.

HR and Single park events- I convert these to singles, homeruns, and outs based on a 9/9 environment.

double plays- I convert ground ball a's assuming 20%, result in a double play

Stolen Bases- I am not going to fully describe this process, but it is based on OBP less HR's, less Xtra base hits. This result is then filtered through the lead probability's from the card and their safe chances to determine how often they will be sent, to arrive at how many SB chances a player will have. Depending on the steal chance, I multiply the SB chances times a success rate, 65% is the minimum I use, below that and I assume the runner will not attempt the steal. Note I currently do not penalize runners further for have caught stealing results while attempting the lead. There is obviously an impact for this but the effort verse the overall value wasn't worth the work to develop.

Average pitchers card

The key assumption here is that I assume 2 ballpark homeruns and 2 home run events on the pitchers card and a few OBP points and Total bases different depending on the hand of the pitcher

So lets stop their for a minute. All of this so far is just converting a players own card into Runs. Additionally I will ultimately add on:

Defense
Run rating (a function of run rating and OBP)
Team OBP (NERP concept)
Potential platoon buff if one side of a players card produces a run value below that of a $.50 cent player

I do not value hit and run or bunting into a players card

Mark

A long time ago (I think I stopped right after 1986 game came out) I was part of the Beta team. We went over pricing as well. My point back then, and today, still stands out. High OBP is overpriced as relative to slugging. This was in part do to qksliver and luckyman all OB and HR Oakland A's strategy in the early game (01-03) was extremely effective in those badly priced games. Perfect example is those Helton cards in the 04/05 games were useless but cost nearly 9 mil. All OB, slow, terribly priced and never used.

It's why I've moved to looking at pure hits and TB's as a measure, as I get a lot more value from my hitters that way.

I would love to see the cost of OB drop 10% to be more in line with Hits and SLG. I think 1 defense is overpriced a bit as well. We used to get a 1 SS that had very few hits for ~1 now it's closer to ~2.

Well those are my .02 on pricing, that's really about it.

I can relate to a lot of what you're saying here.

Given the choice, for me personally, I prefer moving in the direction from complicated toward less complicated, not the other way around. Here's the twist: if I came up with some utopian player pricing, in theory eliminating the discrepancy between value and price, would that be a good thing? Is finding hidden value, whether real or perceived, part of why the game is fun? Does SOM, by fooling with Mark's straightforward method, create opportunity that otherwise wouldn't be there for us? Does Mark's system, by maybe not being an end all and be all, create opportunity that wouldn't otherwise be there too?

Even if players were absolutely perfectly priced, there's still margin of error. An $8 guy might give you anywhere from $5 to $11 worth of production depending on the competition, the parks and the simple vagaries of the dice. Then the goal becomes reducing the margin for error. That's why it drives me nuts when on Team 1 Kershaw gets blasted, while on a Team 2 Narveson throws a no hitter. It completely short circuits me...but in the end, I still like that challenge.

It seems obvious that people with intimate knowledge of the pricing system will do better overall.

These guys seem to know the exact probability numbers for every player in every park---In my mind I see them manipulating spead sheets of data for every league--their division, and the league park spread as a whole--and going to get the FA players that fit that particular league as a whole.

They know the value guys better than I do in essence--and some more obscure ones I might never find. Though I hunt for them, during the frenzy they beat me to them before I can find them---maybe by June-July and 3-5 leagues in I know the league rosters better, but at that point every one else does too and the value guys are harder to get.

I'll admit that's too much work for me now---maybe when I was 18 years old a number crunching nut--now I'm just numb brained, so I play it mostly by intuition of my knowledge of the game years ago.

Though I will defer to geekor's knowledge---I have not noticed On Base being overpriced vs slugging in 20xx, my few tries at ATG would seem to suggest that slugging is overpriced there if my teams are any example.

These guys seem to know the exact probability numbers for every player in every park---In my mind I see them manipulating spead sheets of data for every league-

I don't want to downplay exaggeratedly the role of spreadsheets, but for my part, I use only one, which I take around for all my leagues, and honestly, if I were to lose my file, I would easily live by what I published in March and made available to everyone and follow these as guidelines (see HERE in these forums or in the newsletter published by Wolfman Shapiro).

Back then in March, I already announced that Arrieta and Greinke were worth in the 11M zone, even above 11M when adjusted to high-power parks. Encarnation, Kinsler, Hosmer and Heyward were already identified as some of the biggest busts. As you might note, these players are all in the 7M-9M range. In this year set, all players between 7M-10M appear to me overpriced, except Bradley JR (probably because I highly value his -3 arm in centerfield) and Stanton, who is ijury-prone (more on this below). Even Cruz, who I know is quite popular, appears to me somewhat overpriced, although his value does cover the difference when he plays dh in a high-power stadium (contrary to Encarnation, who is a bad value in any stadium). This said, some players in that price zone are still worth buying, for example in extreme stadiums (ex. Gordon in AT&T becomes an okay value, or Cruz as dh in power stadiums as mentioned), or when you need a cleanup hitter (Ortiz is still a better choice as clean-up than, say, Calhoun, even if Calhoun is priced accordingly to his value), but overall, a rule of thumb is to try spending your 80M intelligently while staying away from players ranged in the 7M-10M.

To illustrate further my point that my spreadsheets don't really add to what I already published in March, I provided in Wolfman's newsletter my top value picks for Miller Park which I summarize below, and what you see in bold are the players I have on a current team that started in December, 9 months later, a team that leads the league (with stoney18's team) at 58-38: (http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1442913):

Top value players by Position for Miller Park, as announced in the ultimate Strat newsletter:
c-top value over 3M D'arnaud 0.73M value over his pricetag
c-top value under 3M Conger
1b-Blanks 1.12M value over his pricetag
2b- top choice: Schoop; second best choice: Travis
3b- top choice: Duffy second best choice: Wright
ss- Correa
of: top choices among 3M+: Pence, Grichuk
of: top choices under 3M+: Stubbs, Taylor
cf: top choice: Trout, but McCutchen wasn't far behind.
dh: top choices Santana, K.Davis

Pitching-wise, I drafted 4 SP of the 10 value I had set for Miller park (J.Ross, Rea, Tropeano, Blanton, which I set free later in the season).

So, I might sound like I have no challenge, but my ideal team for Miller (or Citizen Ballpark, which is my current stadium) was already set up in March, and I am just following the published guidelines I had already set, and have success following it. This is not to say I haven't learned anything since I've been playing this season. For example, I realized since March that I had overestimated perhaps a bit the value of clutch, so Wright is now my top choice over Duffy at 3b, and I realized that picking up a good platoon mate for Schoop is difficult, so Travis has moved above him in my ideal team.

Of course, there is a common factor to many of these players, and also the reason why I was able to draft almost all the players I wanted (Trout is really the only one I miss in the draft for that Citizen team):most of them are injury-prone players. Somewhat, GMs are allergic to injury-prone players, it seems, but they are really, all other things being equal, the best values in this year set (and in past years as well). They are great values because I believe SOM has set their prices assuming a very bad replacement player, and the key to my success I believe is to find good, but cheap, replacement players, like Sogard at 2nd, Romine at 3b/ss, which are still much better than the average 0.5M player, and allows me spend more money on the pitching.

The other important bargain area in the current pricing system are relievers. Relievers pricetag are set for a relatively low (in real-life normal) usage, probably around 100 innings (maybe 120 innings). If you plan to use a reliever for more innings, it's almost certainly a good deal to open the bank account and spend 5M for that reliever. In my current team, I have Familia who is on his way to pitch 162 innings. Truth be told, he struggled a bit, and he is probably the reason why my team is only 58-38.

Re-reading this sound, I feel I might sound conceited, but what I mean to say, if I summarize, is that my "success" is in fact very easily explained:

1) I like injury-prone players
2) I like high-priced relievers and know how to use them with proficiency
3) I stay away, the best that I can, from players in the 7M-9M range and pitchers in the 6M-8M, and in turn do the maximum to draft any of the top 5 players and top 4 pitchers

And I would conclude that, other than these three rules of thumb, I feel that the current pricing system is relatively fair and one could rely on it and select players based on sound GM managerial skills (which players is best fit to play in a pitcher's park, which players make most sense to lead-off, to hit clean-up, what kind of pitching roster would make most sense...)

Have some credits to kill, so put this team together this week. All offensive players had to have a 4 or higher injury rating. To top it off, the other 3 teams in the division play in Miller. Should be an interesting experiment.


http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1445308

Be careful though, keyzick

(Injury-prone players) are great values because I believe SOM has set their prices assuming a very bad replacement player, and the key to my success I believe is to find good, but cheap, replacement players,

Keyword is good. Negron and Cogwill are cheap, but terribly bad. They'll cost your turn 3-4 wins apiece, and I don't think the rest of your team is worth the 100 wins necessary to offset the damage and allow your team to finish over 90 wins.

I agree, still fiddling with the roster, but limiting myself to 4's or worse creates a challenge