FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

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keyzick

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 7:25 pm

Not sure how your sorting to determine, but if you sort by overall win pct., then the top mgrs seem to be in the mid-30s.

Assuming most play 12-team leagues, then 4 teams make the playoffs, so all else being equal, you'd have a 25% chance to be the champ. Don't really see any big surprises there
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freeman

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 8:00 pm

Oh, I was looking at the ratio of championships to total number of teams played.
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sebastian

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 8:18 pm

Freeman and Paul you both have excellent points. I have for quite some time felt there is nothing random about the number generator in this game and there are guys here who have it figured out. I have no issue with it actually my hats off to anyone who has the time to do it but for how can people deny its possible? It is a basic computer code that can be tracked. Too many times I have seen teams that are run by the "winning" managers win 90 plus and titles that when I do a league sim before the season they are 70 win teams at best. There is very little luck element involved in this game
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jfrost58

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 9:16 pm

keyzick wrote:Not sure how your sorting to determine, but if you sort by overall win pct., then the top mgrs seem to be in the mid-30s.

Assuming most play 12-team leagues, then 4 teams make the playoffs, so all else being equal, you'd have a 25% chance to be the champ. Don't really see any big surprises there



Uhhh... first you have to make the playoffs....so starting with 12 (or 24) teams, you would actually only have a 1 in 12 (or 1 in 24) chance of winning the championship, all things being equal.
Last edited by jfrost58 on Sat Jan 14, 2017 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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paul8210

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 9:48 pm

That's right. Assuming a 12-team league, 4/12 * 1/4 = 8.3% chance of winning a championship.

So, if you've won championships in more than 8.3% of the leagues you've entered or made the postseason more than 33% of the time I bow to your above-average greatness!
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sociophil

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSat Jan 14, 2017 11:22 pm

Speaking of outliers, could one of the long timers tell us about Panzer Ace? His record is ridiculously awesome.
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LMBombers

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSun Jan 15, 2017 8:27 am

I am very familiar with Panzer Ace. To my knowledge he only (or mainly) played the mystery card games. He did not play very many teams and NEVER played theme leagues that restricted the player pool. Theme leagues are great fun but your options can be very limited in a mystery card game if the player pool is reduced. He seemed to stick with Auto Leagues and feasted on lots of newbies who didn't know the mystery games that well. Don't get me wrong, he is/was a tremendous manager and obviously knew how to win but he concentrated on one league at a time and avoided theme leagues which can trash your winning % if you get stuck with no options on a poor team.

I know feasting on newbies goes against freeman's argument of SOM helping noobs.
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keyzick

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSun Jan 15, 2017 8:41 am

jfrost58 wrote:
keyzick wrote:Not sure how your sorting to determine, but if you sort by overall win pct., then the top mgrs seem to be in the mid-30s.

Assuming most play 12-team leagues, then 4 teams make the playoffs, so all else being equal, you'd have a 25% chance to be the champ. Don't really see any big surprises there



Uhhh... first you have to make the playoffs....so starting with 12 (or 24) teams, you would actually only have a 1 in 12 (or 1 in 24) chance of winning the championship, all things being equal.


Uhhh, no, read the posts...the comment is in regard to how many times someone has their postseason team win the championship.
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jfrost58

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostSun Jan 15, 2017 11:05 am

Ahhh...got it!
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artie4121

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Re: FOOL PROOF METHOD FOR WINNING!

PostTue Jan 17, 2017 12:38 pm

MARCPELLETIER wrote:
FYI. Once you fall about 5 games or more below .500, it's over. You are not going to recoup those games. I have never seen anybody climb from playing below .500 and win their division



That quote alone is ridiculous. I've done that a dozen times. Not just WC, but lead division.
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