Wild card is better

I've come to the conclusion that, except for the situation where you're in an extreme home park that favors you and your playoff opponent has the same type of park but in the opposite sense favoring him, I'd rather be the wildcard team without "home field advantage" in a seven game playoff series.

Let's say there is a 60% chance of winning at home. I think the figure is closer to 55% in regular season play, but maybe it's a little higher for playoff teams whose rosters should be well suited to their home parks. If you play 3 games at home, the odds favor you winning 2 of 3. And if you play 4 games at home, the odds favor you splitting the series, winning 2 of 4, NOT three out of four - which is what you'll need if the other team holds serve and wins at least two of their home games.

the perils of rounding.

I am not sure this analysis is correct. Lets say that you are correct and the odds are you win 2 of 3. so you win 2 of your first 3 at home, your opponent wins 2 of their 3 on the road, and the series is tied 3-3. You have a 60% chance of winning that 4th game at home, which makes you the favorite.

Game 7 chance is independent so the home team would have the 60% or whatever edge you give them.

Interesting, but . . .

The teams with the home field advantage in the playoffs usually have a better than a 60% chance of winning at home, so I don't think you can use that figure. If it's a 63% or more winning percentage at home the team with the home field advantage would have have the greater chance of winning a 7 game series.

63% is winning 51 games or more at home.

I think this is some of that new math Betsy DeVos and the Trump Administration want to implement in our schools.

So if you are in first place with like ten games to play, will you try to lose on purpose so you can get that coveted wild card spot, and not have the, "Home field disadvantage"?

All I can say to justify my assertion is - how often do the first two games of a playoff series end up split one game apiece? For me, that is the case over half the time. I'd have to research my old playoff teams of course, but I think the numbers would be a 1-1 split 55-60%, home team sweep 35-40%, and a road team sweep 5-10%. Then, the next important point in a playoff series is after game five. How often is the road team ahead 3 games to 2? If it is anywhere near 50%, I believe the visiting team has the upper hand in the next two games, all it needs is one more win. Is it more likely for a home team to sweep those two games, or do odds tend to favor a split between evenly matched teams?

All I can say to justify my assertion is - how often do the first two games of a playoff series end up split one game apiece? For me, that is the case over half the time. I'd have to research my old playoff teams of course, but I think the numbers would be a 1-1 split 55-60%, home team sweep 35-40%, and a road team sweep 5-10%. Then, the next important point in a playoff series is after game five. How often is the road team ahead 3 games to 2? If it is anywhere near 50%, I believe the visiting team has the upper hand in the next two games, all it needs is one more win. Is it more likely for a home team to sweep those two games, or do odds tend to favor a split between evenly matched teams?

There is anecdotal evidence and stories and than there is real math and data. You are using anecdotal evidence which you admit you are not even sure of. Also like another gentleman pointed out, there are perils in rounding up or down.

So I ask you again, if you are in first place and have already clinched at least a wild card, would you lose on purpose to get that wild card, so you could avoid the dreaded home field disadvantage?

I apologize for poking fun at your theory but it is a little silly with no basis in mathematical fact. I will applaud you for thinking outside the box, but I will also promise you that you are wrong.

The rounding point is very valid. You have to take a bigger picture approach. You start off saying home team probably has a 60% chance of winning. Probably accurate. Then you go on to declare that they will only split those home games. That would mean they only win 50%. So the math breaks down there.

You also use in your examples that the wild card road team will win 2 of 3 which is a 67% chance of winning. Your math has the lesser team winning 63% and the better team winning only 50%. Could happen. But odds in the long run are against it.

Bottom line the series starts off with 6 games. 3 home games for each team. So each team wins 2 of 3 at home which is more likely than each home team only winning 33% So the majority of series if the percentages play out are going to be tied after those 6 games.

So I have one simple question. You play 6 games and are tied 3 wins each. You want that last game played at home where you have the home field advantage or on the road?

I'm certain that the reason why wild card teams have the advantage in a seven game series is the 2-3-2 format. It's where the teams stand after 5 games that makes all the difference in the world. For this reason, I believe if the format was changed to 2-2-1-1-1 where the team with "home field advantage" is at home for the crucial game 5 the home team would end up winning a seven game series more often, and the results would be statistically significant, not just marginally different.

I'm certain that the reason why wild card teams have the advantage in a seven game series is the 2-3-2 format. It's where the teams stand after 5 games that makes all the difference in the world. For this reason, I believe if the format was changed to 2-2-1-1-1 where the team with "home field advantage" is at home for the crucial game 5 the home team would end up winning a seven game series more often, and the results would be statistically significant, not just marginally different.

Okay, that is a slightly different point, you very well may be correct that the 2-2-1-1-1-1 format is better for the higher seed than the 2-3-2 format. But even with the 2-3-2 format the advantage is still with the higher seeded team, with the home field advantage.