The Big Post for 2016

This article is a year old, but still interesting reading:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2015/12/1 ... vironments

I've never given much thought to isolated power as the main factor in run production---Though this may change my mind. I generally thought OPS was the main factor.

I've looked at many leagues in 20xx--most all the leagues in the PC tournaments since 2012 (not just the ones I played in)--and Runs scored is almost dead on with OPS. Usually at least 11 of the 12 teams fall right in. When there is an exception, it is usually fast running/higher BA teams, but as I see it that is more due to taking extra bases than stolen bases.

Maybe the tendency of most new ballparks to be small HR type parks has really elevated isolated power--the fielding is tight because OF don't need to cover a lot of ground. How many singles really fall between the infield and outfield any more unless it's in the Gap anyway--not sure if it translates directly into Strat--but I sure can see it.

I don't remember which thread it was in, but when talking about card prices I mentioned that I believed OBP (and def) were over priced and slugging (by TB's) was under priced so I had been leaning that way for many seasons.

Especially since I play a lot of pitchers parks, I've given up on guys who didn't have the TB numbers to drive in runs, other than pure lead off and the bottom 2 guys (typically a cheap defensive guy). I've been taking guys with less and less OB to get those numbers.

Not saying it always works, but had been working decently enough.

On the flip side, I can't get a hitters park team to go north of .500

There is a tendency among managers to load up on arms in a pitchers park and load up on bats in a hitters park. The reason for this, in my opinion, is a misunderstanding about "building a team that fits the park."

Having said that, and I'm as guilty as anyone, you CAN win this way. I love playing Billyball in a pitchers park (1970s Oakland A's - Billy Martin - Big Arms - Aggressive Base Running) and Moneyball in a hitters park (20xx Oakland A's - Billy Beane - Value Pitching - Aggressive OPS).

However, I think the pricing of salaries suggests most managers would benefit from doing the opposite. Mark's Pepperdine team is a good example of this ($21 mil spent on pitching: http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1399317 ). You need salary to buy outsized OBP, and the only way to get it is with value pitching.

Further, here's an example of spending $35 mil on pitching in a more homer friendly park:

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1425116

Value SLG comes from Schoop, Den Dekker, and others. There are plenty of guys out there in the low dollar SLG bin: Conger, Raburn, Dickerson, Wright, Alvarez, etc etc.

I think these routes are more in line with maximizing the player pool as it's currently designed. But when you find lots of like minded people running to the same side of the boat (i.e., 10 managers have the top four *SPs on their draft cards), opportunity arises for the guy left standing by himself looking in another direction. That's why so many different strategies can work, even if maybe you aren't as fully efficient as you can possibly be (according to the "ratings").

A Brief Message for the Noobs:

It occurred to me that there is not a lot of newbie posting on this thread, ironic to me because I start these posts to benefit the newer players.

Trying to read this thread with newbie eyes, it probably appears a bit overwhelming when you see links to all these successful teams from successful managers.

However

I want to point out that winning is about as much what DOESN'T work as about what does. This is called tuition. Don't be tricked into reading a thread laced with highly successful teams that it necessarily translates as "do this" and it magically works 100% of the time. You would probably benefit more from a thread like "Post Your Worst Team and Analyze What Went Wrong" than what you're reading here, but that thread would be crazy long.

My point is, speak up. Ask questions. There's plenty of vet presence here to give you a nugget or two that you can pursue with a fresh slate in the new card set.

This can double as a note to Mark (with regard to targeting more OBP) and as an example to answering a newbie question:

Q: What do you do when starting pitching is completely diluted by everyone time after time putting big dollar *SPs high on their draft cards?

A: You put Harper, Trout, Votto and Donaldson 1,2,3,4 on YOUR draft card.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1436356

As it turned out, four was actually too many. I had to quickly jettison Donaldson for Hahn and Manship and subsequently this team just absolutely launched. 849 runs scored playing in O.co!

Lost the semis in a one run game seven.

Additional attempts to make this go didn't fare as well, and with my short attention span, I turned to other ideas. But there was definitely something learned here, even though I came up short. Not a Champs team, but this was my personal favorite among my teams this year.

Also: Note Pagan's isolated power!!

I can't tell you guys enough how much I appreciate your wisdom. I read these things all of the time but rarely respond. I can tell you I take it all in and use at my discretion on different teams in different situations. I am learning from the best, or at least that is the way i see it. I used to play in early 2000s and quit playing after about 7 years or so. I came back in 2014 with 3 teams and again in 2015 with 20 teams. I expect to play about 20-25 teams in 2016. My best teams are my newer teams as it took me a while to get the hang with what works and what does not. Experimentation is the word of the day here. I have a team that is .226 in ISO power but it is still playing about 3/4 of the way into the season. This is what finally worked for me. I gave up on getting the stud * pitchers and went the opposite way. I get value pitching along with one stud, several stud hitters and a few cheap hitters at different positions. I tried every different angle, and that is what finally clicked for me. Thanks again!

Milleram-

My post doesn't undermine the concept of OPS for scoring runs, however, it is refining it. OPS is OBP + SLG, what I am letting the community know is that pricing is based on a function of OBP and isolated power more than OPS, because technically scoring runs is about getting on base (OBP) and how efficiently you move them once on base (ISO).

Now the results of this system, is that low avg./high obp/high slg type players, think the Rob Deer's and Mike Schmidt's all walks and home runs, are going to be priced high, and are usually the type of players most in the community tend to think are overpriced historically. Sometimes based on tester feedback I modify this dynamic for a set and other times it stays as is.

Circling back to JPav's last few posts, most successful managers can win in a lot of different environments, but if given a preference will play to what they know best. For me that is put the most offense I can in a pitchers park and use the park to protect cheap low whip high BP HR pitchers. Usually I will always go 5 man rotation so I don't have to worry about competing for the asterick starters. What this strategy is really doing, is getting good value to keep the opposing OBP low while using the ball park to keep the ISO Power low. I can then use the money offensively to push OBP way above the league average and get enough doubles power to have respectable ISO Power to score runs.

It is also very possible that this isn't the most efficient use of cash, but if it runs counter to the rest of the league, you can find value by not missing out on "key" players.

I really enjoy reading these posts. I am a bit of a noob (12th team starts tomorrow), and what I have found is that you can have two of the exact same teams and in one league they could win 90plus games and in another they could be under .500. A lot depends on who's in your division, and how their pitching matchs up with your hitting and vice versa. Opponents parks play a big part as well.

That's why I don't try to copy exactly from the successful teams i see in these posts. I try to pick and choose players that i have seen succeed in other teams of the same ilk.

So far, so good I guess, I'm over .500 for the 2015 season.

Thanks again for all of the info.