First look at the ratings: top 10 players per position

compared to the first pricing draft that SOM presents for the upper cards

how solid are these early price drafts? do you typically notice a lot of change prior to the set being actually launched? And are the changes typically minimal (ie- $12.5 may change to $12.48?)

Thanks!

I think it's relatively minor, except for obvious mistakes, and also except for some pitchers, when SOM decides to create a relief-only card for the purpose of the online game from a card that originally has a S/R combo. Last year, Logan Verrett went from 6M to 3.5M.

Thanks Marc. Looks like Lemahieu dropped a bit already ($10.54). Appreciate your insights!

Top 10 hitters per position

I decided to create a new post..

WARP= wins above replacement player (adjusted for neutral stadiium, 80M league)
Pos is the position the player will have its best value (not necessarily the top position of his card)
My est salary: Salaries as my ratings would have it...but my ratings differ somewhat from TSN...by the way this was done without knowing who is injury-prone to only 3 games or 15 games, so these values are likely to change. Also, I haven't analyzed the pitching, and this could affect the value of some hitters (eg. left-handed hitters could benefit from a little bump).

A lot of parameters I used are based on last year data, so the final numbers can change significantly (I just bumped Lindor and Pedroia salaries...numbers above corrected). Obviously, these are my ratings, not SOM ratings. SOM might decide to lower the salaries of second basemen quite a lot given this year's depth at this position and bump ss salaries so that the 10th best player at each position are roughly equivalent...but the relatively value of every player within each position shouldn't change.

NAME ….. POS ….. WARP ….. SAL
Freeman, …. 1b ….. 5,62 ….. $8,89
Goldschm …. 1b ….. 5,40 ….. $8,65
Rizzo,A* …. 1b ….. 5,24 ….. $8,47
Votto,J* …. 1b ….. 5,00 ….. $8,20
Rodriguez, S. 1b ….. 3,66 ….. $6,71
Belt,B* …. 1b ….. 3,64 ….. $6,68
Cabrera,M…. 1b ….. 3,43 ….. $6,46
Encarnac …. 1b ….. 3,11 ….. $6,10
Davis,C* …. 1b ….. 2,40 ….. $5,31
Myers,W …. 1b ….. 2,36 ….. $5,30

Lemahieu …. 2b ….. 6,22 ….. $9,55
Cano,R* …. 2b ….. 6,19 ….. $9,53
Altuve,J …. 2b ….. 5,52 ….. $8,78
Segura,J …. 2b ….. 5,35 ….. $8,59
Murphy,D …. 2b ….. 4,78 ….. $7,95
Dozier,B …. 2b ….. 4,70 ….. $7,88
Kinsler, …. 2b ….. 4,45 ….. $7,62
Pedroia, …. 2b ….. 3,88 ….. $7,13
Kipnis,J …. 2b ….. 2,85 ….. $5,85
Villar,J …. 2b ….. 2,44 ….. $5,39

Donaldso …. 3b ….. 4,95 ….. 8,14
Arenado, …. 3b ….. 4,03 ….. 7,12
Machado, …. 3b ….. 3,94 ….. 7,05
Beltre,A …. 3b ….. 3,77 ….. 6,86
Seager,K …. 3b ….. 3,39 ….. 6,42
Ramirez, …. 3b ….. 3,22 ….. 6,26
Rendon,A …. 3b ….. 3,23 ….. 6,25
Turner,J …. 3b ….. 2,87 ….. 5,84
Longoria …. 3b ….. 2,84 ….. 5,81
Carpente …. 3b ….. 2,52 ….. 5,45

Sanchez, …. c- ….. 4,91 ….. $8,10
Leon,S+ …. c- ….. 3,28 ….. $6,31
Ramos,W …. c- ….. 2,97 ….. $5,97
Recker,A …. c- ….. 2,97 ….. $5,94
Lucroy,J …. c- ….. 2,69 ….. $5,65
Posey,B …. c- ….. 2,59 ….. $5,56
Molina,Y …. c- ….. 1,73 ….. $4,57
Perez,S …. c- ….. 1,60 ….. $4,41
Contrera …. c- ….. 1,51 ….. $4,35
Zunino,M …. c- ….. 1,40 ….. $4,18

Trout,M …. cf ….. 7,98 ….. $11,51
Bradley …. cf ….. 4,40 ….. $7,54
Turner,T …. cf ….. 4,16 ….. $7,27
Blackmon …. cf ….. 3,51 ….. $6,54
Dahl,D* …. cf ….. 2,69 ….. $5,63
Fowler,D …. cf ….. 2,46 ….. $5,37
Kiermaie …. cf ….. 2,00 ….. $4,87
Pederson …. cf ….. 1,82 ….. $4,68
Dyson,J* …. cf ….. 1,83 ….. $4,67
Broxton, …. cf ….. 1,64 ….. $4,52

Bryant,K …. lf ….. 4,50 ….. 7,65
Yelich,C …. lf ….. 4,05 ….. 7,15
Cespedes …. lf ….. 3,40 ….. 6,43
Braun,R …. lf ….. 3,23 ….. 6,24
Beninten …. lf ….. 2,66 ….. 5,60
Marte,S …. lf ….. 2,60 ….. 5,57
Toles,A* …. lf ….. 1,89 ….. 4,73
Gardner, …. lf ….. 1,86 ….. 4,72
Davis,K …. lf ….. 1,51 ….. 4,35
Parker,J …. lf ….. 1,44 ….. 4,21

Betts,M …. rf ….. 5,28 ….. 8,52
Eaton,A* …. rf ….. 3,29 ….. 6,33
Springer …. rf ….. 2,92 ….. 5,92
Harper,B …. rf ….. 2,93 ….. 5,91
Gonzalez …. rf ….. 2,50 ….. 5,44
Calhoun, …. rf ….. 2,29 ….. 5,24
Stanton, …. rf ….. 2,14 ….. 5,04
Piscotty …. rf ….. 2,02 ….. 4,91
Selsky,S …. rf ….. 1,82 ….. 4,70
Polanco, …. rf ….. 1,48 ….. 4,28

Lindor,F …. ss ….. 3,87 ….. 7,20
Crawford …. ss ….. 2,96 ….. 5,99
Andrus,E …. ss ….. 2,67 ….. 5,64
Gregoriu …. ss ….. 2,58 ….. 5,56
Correa,C …. ss ….. 2,55 ….. 5,52
Swanson, …. ss ….. 2,40 ….. 5,33
Seager,C …. ss ….. 2,01 ….. 4,88
Russell, …. ss ….. 1,89 ….. 4,75
Story,T …. ss ….. 1,82 ….. 4,67
Cozart,Z …. ss ….. 1,56 ….. 4,36

Renfroe, …. dh ….. 8,11 11,66
Ortiz,D* …. dh ….. 4,87 8,06
Cruz,N …. dh ….. 2,73 5,67
Joyce,M* …. dh ….. 2,50 5,42
Martinez …. dh ….. 1,91 4,77
Diaz,A …. dh ….. 1,68 4,51
Grossman …. dh ….. 1,64 4,50
Kang,J …. dh ….. 1,61 4,43
Naquin,T …. dh ….. 1,37 4,18
Beltran, …. dh ….. 1,12 3,89

...don't forget that I made these predictions with only guessing who would have an injury rating of 1-max remainder (llke Cano), 1-max 3 games (like Lemahieu) or 1-15 games max (like D. Murphy).

First comment, pretty much all 8M+ players seem overpriced in this year SOM edition. So contrary to last year, the bunch of overpriced players is not restricted to the 7M-9M zone, but appears to affect almost all 8M+ players.

On the other hand, pricetags for pitchers seem just fairly priced. So the two observations suggest to me that aiming at four/five high-priced SP and avoid the high-priced offensive player will be the easy strategy to win championship--actually, the challenge will be to get those high-priced pitchers.

First impression also is that it will be easier to win in a highly offensive environment. There seems to be several good investment in cheap offensive players with lots of ballpark homeruns.

I have used this thread several times, thanks for posting it, Marc.

You really nailed the pitchers' salaries. It looks like they switched something with the hitter values and it is interesting to see the differences between your best guess, or formula, and what the final salaries are.

Top 10 hitters per position

...don't forget that I made these predictions with only guessing who would have an injury rating of 1-max remainder (llke Cano), 1-max 3 games (like Lemahieu) or 1-15 games max (like D. Murphy).

First impression also is that it will be easier to win in a highly offensive environment. There seems to be several good investment in cheap offensive players with lots of ballpark homeruns.

Do the values of some of the cheaper injury-prone players (e.g. Moustakas, Inj. 5) take into account time lost? Thanks.

Do the values of some of the cheaper injury-prone players (e.g. Moustakas, Inj. 5) take into account time lost? Thanks.

Yes, all 2+ injury-rated players have their time lost accounted corrected . Only the 1-injury players might have been inaccurately accounted.

I should add that my ratings assume that an adequate bench player takes the load during the absence of the injury-prone player (roughly a 0.7M player worth his money). If you have a terrible bench, the value of the injury-prone player should be lowered.

Thanks!