NLD 45 - The Vote for Pedro (Martinez) Version

Joe, you've never seen the Gerald McBoing-Boing cartoons? You must be under 70-years-old. Anyway, my team is up and down this NLD season. (like last night, pulling out 2 of 3 1-run games against FALCON)

P.S. Most of my Canada experience was some very cold days in Saskatoon. However, the NC mountains may warp my outlook a bit.

Yeah, got a few years to go to get to 60 yet so....

Jeep you and Stoney look to battle it out down to the wire I think.

Meanwhile Spider has creep quietly to 3 games back of the WC and GB and Big A are in the race with Smokey in the East. I'm holding stubbornly to my lead in the West for now, but Spidey is hovering there waiting to pounce.

We play game #81 tonight. I guess today and tomorrow for any 10% moves to be made.

You know they used to make a Maserati 'Spyder,' and that car when matched up against the Jeep in Test Drives lost 8 of 9 times too. Sorry Spider, couldn't resist.

You know they used to make a Maserati 'Spyder,' and that car when matched up against the Jeep in Test Drives lost 8 of 9 times too. Sorry Spider, couldn't resist.

LOL

You know they used to make a Maserati 'Spyder,' and that car when matched up against the Jeep in Test Drives lost 8 of 9 times too. Sorry Spider, couldn't resist.

Grrrrrrr! 0-6 at home and 1-2 on the road against a JEEP of all things. Where's Consumer Reports when I need them?

You know they used to make a Maserati 'Spyder,' and that car when matched up against the Jeep in Test Drives lost 8 of 9 times too. Sorry Spider, couldn't resist.

Grrrrrrr! 0-6 at home and 1-2 on the road against a JEEP of all things. Where's Consumer Reports when I need them?

You guys are cracking me up.

Wow, no last minute moves before the price went up.

Gosh, maybe we should have made some moves! Got swept at home tonight after a 3-6 road trip.

Ok, ratings.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
SemperG   7572   4866   186   5052   2520   W
Doug...   8236   5245   541   5786   2450   C
Stoney.   7619   4787   394   5181   2438   C
Smokey.   7940   5065   468   5533   2407   E
JoeTJet   8021   5138   499   5636   2385   W
Spider.   7512   4916   378   5294   2325   W
Dale...   7709   4938   522   5460   2249   E
Gbrooke   7638   5041   393   5434   2205   E
Jeep...   7581   4758   447   5205   2159   C
nythawk   7829   5156   634   5789   2039   W
BigAlrc   7232   5123   103   5227   2005   E
Falcon.   7665   5150   630   5780   1886   C


The ratings would expect that the West would be a three team race (Semper, JTJ, Spider) with Semp holding the upper hand and the other two neck and neck. Semper hasn't been there so far, but a recent stretch has brought both him and Spidey into striking range of the slumping Pitmasters.

In the central Doug and Stones would be the expected front runners. The ratings got Stoney right, but completely missed on the other spot, subbing Doug for Jeep.

Ratings say that Smokey should coast in the East with Dale and GB only hoping for a dark horse WC slot. Smokey is in first, but hasn't really been as good as the ratings expect.

One thing to note, the wins and losses are super close right now. There are three teams with 49 wins, Three with 44 and three with 40. I would expect things to shake out a little bit as things have tightened up over the past week.


By Division

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Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7630   5042   372   5431   2216
Cent   7775   4985   503   5488   2233
West   7733   5019   424   5443   2317


The West looks the best in terms of ratings, close to the best hitting to the Central and just a little behind in pitching of the East. Actually the pitching is difference

Biggest surprise to the overall ratings are Semper and Doug on the downside and Jeep and Falcon on the plus side. Semper has a very one sided team based on SPs and D with below average hitting. Teams that are this skewed usually under perform. Doug is skewed the other way AND, his offense is GREAT v LHP, but only decent v RHP.

Jeep's O has been a surprise to the ratings and Falcon's pitching has surprised. A LOT.

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 Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
SemperG   2520   2   5   -3   W
Doug...   2450   3   8   -5   C
Stoney.   2438   3   3   0   C
Smokey.   2407   3   5   -2   E
JoeTJet   2385   3   3   0   W
Spider.   2325   4   5   -1   W
Dale...   2249   5   8   -3   E
Gbrooke   2205   6   6   0   E
Jeep...   2159   7   3   4   C
nythawk   2039   9   7   2   W
BigAlrc   2005   10   9   1   E
Falcon.   1886   12   8   4   C
      67   70   -3   


Spider and Jeep have over performed on offense, really only Hawk has been much below where the ratings expect. Jeep team is totally HR dependent with very poor OB. He must be timing his HRs well. I'm not sure what to make of Spider's offensive performance. He really isn't very good v RHP, but I know he's playing situations so maybe that's working for him.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Doug...   8236   1   1   0   C
JoeTJet   8021   3   5   -2   W
Smokey.   7940   4   4   0   E
nythawk   7829   5   8   -3   W
Dale...   7709   6   8   -2   E
Falcon.   7665   7   6   1   C
Gbrooke   7638   7   9   -2   E
Stoney.   7619   7   5   2   C
Jeep...   7581   8   4   4   C
SemperG   7572   8   10   -2   W
Spider.   7512   9   5   4   W
BigAlrc   7232   12   9   3   E
      77   74   3   


Hawk and Flacon are both brought down by below average D. I suspect that they have been fortunate in the timing of their defensive lapses (or haven't had as many as the ratings expect) However, having said that, their pitching isn't exactly top of the heap without looking at fielding either.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
SemperG   5052   1   2   -1   W
Stoney.   5181   3   3   0   C
Jeep...   5205   3   4   -1   C
BigAlrc   5227   3   2   1   E
Spider.   5294   4   4   0   W
Gbrooke   5434   6   4   2   E
Dale...   5460   6   6   0   E
Smokey.   5533   7   7   0   E
JoeTJet   5636   9   6   3   W
Falcon.   5780   12   5   7   C
Doug...   5786   12   10   2   C
nythawk   5789   12   5   7   W
      78   58   20   


Here are fielding ratings, I haven't, yet, compared to actuals here

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Fieldng   FRt
BigAlrc   103
SemperG   186
Spider.   378
Gbrooke   393
Stoney.   394
Jeep...   447
Smokey.   468
JoeTJet   499
Dale...   522
Doug...   541
Falcon.   630
nythawk   634


All that work is appreciated. It's fun looking at the ratings, especially when your team is doing well.

The main reason, IMO on why my offense is performing better than the ratings, is that I set this offense up to really perform well at home, with just enough lefty hitters to compete on the road. I have a ton of RH power, while my lefty hitters are primarily single and double hitters. My home record (26-16) bears this out, but I've still played 1 game over away from home turf. Stoney's H/A record is almost identical to mine. Conversely, Joe has a better away record.

There's likely much more moving and shakin' to do during the second half. Personally my biggest concern going forward, is more with the back end of my rotation than with my hitting.

All that work is appreciated. It's fun looking at the ratings, especially when your team is doing well.

The main reason, IMO on why my offense is performing better than the ratings, is that I set this offense up to really perform well at home, with just enough lefty hitters to compete on the road. I have a ton of RH power, while my lefty hitters are primarily single and double hitters. My home record (26-16) bears this out, but I've still played 1 game over away from home turf. Stoney's H/A record is almost identical to mine. Conversely, Joe has a better away record.

There's likely much more moving and shakin' to do during the second half. Personally my biggest concern going forward, is more with the back end of my rotation than with my hitting.

So, yeah, your offensive numbers go up at home, but they are still middle of the pack.

I took a look at your home/road splits and they look like this:
Home: .239 .311 .448 202 runs, 76 HR
Road: .242 .322 .403 200 runs 63 HR

Now, 47.6% of your PAs have come at home so having slightly more runs and 13 more HRs is better than it seems. Extrapolating out you would have 222 runs and 83 HRs.

So, it's interesting that your Average and OB are lower, but your HRs are higher. Ok, let's see where the HRs are coming from.

You've hit 13 extra at home. You would expect most to come from the RHB right?
The biggest difference on RHBs are
Pedroia +4
Gyorko +6
Minor RHB differences: Ellis +1, Motter +1, Trumbo +1
So, there are 13 HRs, BUT, Stanton is -2, Espinosa (a SH) is also -2 and Ortega (L) is -1.
That means LHB have to pick up 5 home HRs and, they do, Hazelbaker is +3 and Parra +2

So, you can make the case that your park has been a big difference, but the data is sort of muddled and could be lost in the "home field advantage" that SOM has never really explained to us. I mean Parra and Hazelbaker in platoon or backup roles have a bigger difference than Trumbo and a much bigger difference than Stanton.

To further muddy the waters, let's look at BPHRs. Pedroia is 0-2 so no ballpark help there. Gyorko is 4-7 clearly that *could* be a factor. Stanton and Trumbo are 7-21 and 8-21. While Sanchez (who is 11 and 11 home and away) is 4-10. Interestingly Hazelbaker is 3-11 just one bphr away from the same % as Stanton.

You do, however, have almost 30 more BPHR chances than your opponents.

Ok, what's all this mean? I would suggest that your park hasn't helped as much as you think, but probably has helped some. How much is just the built-in HF advantage I cannot say.

It is interesting to also note that you are second in fewest runners per run at 2.55 behind Doug (2.36) of course, HRs will do this right?

Here are those stats:

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Men In Plaid   2.37
Southern Accents   2.56
USA Americans   2.57
Deep In The Gap   2.73
Lone Star Pitmasters   2.75
Rhodium Pylons   2.75
Northkak HitSquad   2.76
Hudson Valley Renegade hawks   2.83
Philly Phanatics NLD45   2.88
Winnipeg BlueBombersNLD   2.94
Bonn Braumeisters   2.95
Naples Dogma   3.08


So what? Well, it would appear that Smoke has hit a lot of solo shots and probably Stoney too. Dale has maximized his runners the most.

Ok, enough number crunching for tonight. Hopefully this is interesting.

Parra has been a really good B/U for me this season. Seems to always come through with a timely hit or homer. Agree on everything you said, and the luck factor supposedly built in may be more of an advantage than the actual numbers. Like you said, it would be nice to know exactly how Strat does that. Thanks for the research, Eye-opening.