NLD46 - The Petite Oakland Trio League

Wow, all three divisions had the "same" results, a sweep in one series and a 2-1 split in the other. Not sure we've seen that very often.

Anyone want to share some thoughts on their team?

Oh! Let me! Not going down that rabbit hole again.

Wow, all three divisions had the "same" results, a sweep in one series and a 2-1 split in the other. Not sure we've seen that very often.

Anyone want to share some thoughts on their team?

Sure! Let's see - ignoring my disaster in Games 1 & 3 vs. Stoney - my guys will be 9th in Runs Scored (best will be Nythawk), best in Fielding impact on runs allowed (3 errors in Game 1 ), 4th in Pitching (best will be Doug), and 4th in Run Differential (already down 14 ).

East division will be a dogfight and the strongest.

My playoff forecast: Doug, Semper, JTJ and yours truly

Think the last time I tried early predictions, I would up with 1st pick in the next draft.

Anyone else want to wank the plank (or get caught in their own web)?

Ha Ha, I'll have some comments tomorrow. No time tonight.

I will leave this bit of bad news for my team, three of my four platoon v LHP (and the DH who backs up the two OFers) got injured....in the same game!

INJURIES:
Jayson Werth INJURED (for 6 more games) in 1st inning
Brandon Guyer INJURED (for 10 more games) in 6th inning
Franklin Gutierrez INJURED (for 1 more game) in 9th inning

Brutal.

Ok, some raw numbers:

Money on the starting Lineup v RHP. If Spider is right then Hawk got a heck of a bargain on his team.

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.......   Linup
GBrook.   60.76
Smokey…   60.2
Stoney.   59.4
Dale...   54.95
jeep…   54.84
Spider.   53.01
Hawk...   52.9
Falcon.   52.14
JTJ....   51.85
Doug...   48
Big A..   47.19
Semper.   42.14


Spend on pitching. Here the spending agrees with Spidey

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.......   Pit.
Doug...   43.83
Big A..   43.68
Semper.   41.37
Falcon.   40.32
Spider.   39.71
jeep…   37.54
Dale...   37.02
Hawk...   36.93
JTJ....   36.46
Stoney.   36.21
Smokey…   34.04
GBrook.   31.99


Bench money. Doesn't always equate to lineup v LHP. I didn't realize that we were second. Don't know if that is good or bad. Stoney would, seemingly, be in the least optimal position to deal with injuries.

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.......   Bch
Semper.   16.44
JTJ....   11.53
Hawk...   9.73
Big A..   8.95
Doug...   8.16
Dale...   8.03
jeep…   7.61
Falcon.   7.46
Spider.   7.25
GBrook.   6.98
Smokey…   5.68
Stoney.   4.38


SPs - Note that this may include 5th starters who are actually used mostly in relief. I believe that Peacock is a good example of this. Surprised that I'm fifth on this list.

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.......   SPs..
Falcon.   30.52
Doug...   29.09
jeep…   25.97
Spider.   25.28
JTJ....   24.02
Semper.   23.73
Stoney.   23.6
Big A..   22.84
Hawk...   20.63
Dale...   19.26
Smokey…   18.15
GBrook.   17.23


RPs - Big A is REALLY counting on the pen. (And that number doesn't include Peacock) That's almost 21% of the cap. Falcon is hoping to never use his.

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.......   RPs..
Big A..   20.84
Dale...   17.76
Semper.   17.64
Hawk...   16.3
Smokey…   15.89
GBrook.   14.76
Doug...   14.74
Spider.   14.43
Stoney.   12.61
JTJ....   12.44
jeep…   11.57
Falcon.   9.8


Averages

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.......   Linup   Pit.   Bch   SPs..   RPs..   Tot
Average   53.12   38.26   8.52   23.36   14.90   99.89


Hawk's Runs projection get's a big boost from his BPS & BPHR ratings (Coors). I tried to account for average BP Singles and HRs for each team.

Yeah, that's true, Coors does have a big impact, but there are a lot of good parks in this league. I haven't done the team by team ratings in their parks, but I would think that Hawk's O rating will be up there.

Some more raw data for you.

HR information. These are averages and assume that I got your lineups correct which most certainly might not be the case.

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......   HRL   BPL   HRR   BPR
Big A.   3.27   4.11   4.09   5.89
Stoney   2.96   4.78   3.44   5.44
Hawk..   3.78   3.78   2.64   3.44
Semper   2.31   2.33   2.17   1.22
Smokey   3.96   3.67   4.77   4.44
jeep..   3.37   4.56   4.46   5.33
Spider   2.29   1.78   2.56   2.89
doug..   3.80   4.89   4.12   4.78
GBrook   3.92   4.89   2.63   3.89
Falcon   5.63   6.33   3.42   5.56
Dale..   2.06   3.22   1.87   3.11
JTJ...   4.29   6.56   4.00   6.22


JTJ has the most bphrs both ways while Falcon just CRUSHES LHP with real and bphr (that'll happen when your entire team is RH'ed) Smokey and Jeep have the most real HRs v RHP with Smokey having slightly more.

I hope Alex Wood gets better, he's currently carrying a 24.26 ERA! Might be willing to move him if someone is interested.....

Jeep mentioned in league email how the run dif can be skewed, especially early on, by one game. We lost 25-4 to Doug tonight. A minus 21 will take awhile to over come!

I know my HRs will be low, but a 2-15 vs. opponents in 9 games is a killer!

Yeah, no doubt Spidey.

Ok, some predictions here. I don't have the pitching usage right nor the lineups (probably) so take all of this with a grain of salt. I've spent little time validating anything outside of my division so this could be wildly off.

With the caveats out of the way, here goes. Following Spider's lead.

West looks like a two team race between Smoke and Spider with Stoney also very good. Jeep, sorry, but the initial cut (see caveats above) have you behind those three. The west looks VERY good. These ratings would expect the WC to come out of here.

Central GB looks the best with Semp not too far back.

East JTJ looks the best, but I think Falcon will be really good at home. The East teams are really going to struggle on the road outside of their division. Might be a challenge for these teams to be much above .500 due to that.

So, Spider, it looks like we're close, mostly disagreeing on Doug.

Top offensive teams should be (in no particular order) Smokey, Hawk, Stoney, JTJ.

Pitching - Again, in no order - Spider, Semper. I don't have Doug that high because of his park and his defense. The pitchers are very good however.

Fielding - Semper and Smokey are at the top of the list. Spider, your D is quite good too. Theirs is a little better because they have better arms at CA.