"THOSE WERE THE DAYS" LEAGUE

The manager has played enough to know better. No excuse. If the decision is to move on._.Play Ball!

12 hrs to opening pitch!!!!!!!!

The Black Knights will start with 26 players on roster the following 2 players are protected in FA
SP Maine
RP Lyon


Good luck to all teams!!!!!!!

Total:28

I decided to go ahead and evaluate the league salary structure in detail for 2008. Anyone who is nerdy enough about stats to understand the normal curve, standard deviation, z-scores and percentile ranks, can look at the data here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I'll post a narrative comment later. I may go back and do this for 2007 too; would be interesting to see the correlation between team salary and winning.

Nicely done, Padre -- and you're right, seeing the 2007 correlation of salaries and results would be interesting.

In particular, it would be fun to see the variance between predicted and actual results, in some kind of barometer of effective management

So, if team salary is perfectly correlated with winning (obviously it is related, but obviously imperfectly), then these would be the 2008 division standings at the end of the season (with salary expressed as a percentile rank on the normal curve):


EAST
THE RANCH - 94.06%
WJS6768 - 73.24%
SKIPPED - 56.36%
JOES - 51.99%
INQUISITORS - 24.51%
WILLMURR - 19.49%

CENTRAL
KNIGHTS - 79.95%
TORNADOES - 74.86%
VORTEX - 73.57%
SWAMPERS - 72.24%
REWIND - 48.01%
CLOWNS - 16.85%

MIDWEST
BOOMERS - 97.38%
CLUB 62 - 80.51%
DUDES - 72.24%
MONKEYS - 57.53%
HOMERS - 31.92%
VISITORS - 12.10%

WEST
ASTARTES - 82.64%
ISLANDERS - 51.99%
BRNSTRMRS - 25.46%
LONG RUN - 13.79%
BALLS FIRE - 3.75%
50W 112L - 2.28%

Thus it looks like the Central will be the most competitive and hardest to call, and the easiest--allegedly--will be my guys in the West.

Nicely done, Padre -- and you're right, seeing the 2007 correlation of salaries and results would be interesting.

In particular, it would be fun to see the variance between predicted and actual results, in some kind of barometer of effective management

I had a couple extra hours today...I'll probably go do this too at some point.

VERY INTERESTING GREAT WORK THANK YOU

That's cool that you took the time to pull that report for everyone.

Thanks

So, if team salary is perfectly correlated with winning (obviously it is related, but obviously imperfectly), then these would be the 2008 division standings at the end of the season (with salary expressed as a percentile rank on the normal curve):


EAST
THE RANCH - 94.06%
WJS6768 - 73.24%
SKIPPED - 56.36%
JOES - 51.99%
INQUISITORS - 24.51%
WILLMURR - 19.49%

CENTRAL
KNIGHTS - 79.95%
TORNADOES - 74.86%
VORTEX - 73.57%
SWAMPERS - 72.24%
REWIND - 48.01%
CLOWNS - 16.85%

MIDWEST
BOOMERS - 97.38%
CLUB 62 - 80.51%
DUDES - 72.24%
MONKEYS - 57.53%
HOMERS - 31.92%
VISITORS - 12.10%

WEST
ASTARTES - 82.64%
ISLANDERS - 51.99%
BRNSTRMRS - 25.46%
LONG RUN - 13.79%
BALLS FIRE - 3.75%
50W 112L - 2.28%

Thus it looks like the Central will be the most competitive and hardest to call, and the easiest--allegedly--will be my guys in the West.[/quote]

OK I did the 2007 numbers, too. Below are the final ACTUAL standings, with the teams listed in finishing order. After each team name is listed the actual record, then the preseason salary percentile, and then the preseason prediction of finishing order.

Pretty close!

The Central Division was predicted perfectly.

The Midwest was all over the place, since somehow that division had all six teams with contention-level records.

EAST
KNIGHTS (93-69) 59.87% PREDICTION: 2ND
KINGS (88-74) 76.11% PREDICTION: 1ST
DUDES (76-86) 34.46% PREDICTION: 3RD
BRNSTRMRS (66-96) 19.49% PREDICTION: 4TH
TRADERS (52-110) 17.88% PREDICTION: 5TH
WARRIORS (40-122) 1.62% PREDICTION: 6TH


CENTRAL
JOES (113-49) 84.85% PREDICTION: 1ST
BREWERS (96-66) 73.24% PREDICTION: 2ND
HOMERS (73-89) 42.86% PREDICTION: 3RD
VISITORS (67-95) 21.19% PREDICTION: 4TH
LONG RUN (59-103) 6.30% PREDICTION: 5TH
BALLS FIRE (51-111) 6.30% PREDICTION: 6TH


MIDWEST
THE RANCH (103-59) 72.91% PREDICTION: 3RD
SKIPPED (98-64) 90.49% PREDICTION: 1ST
SWAMPERS (92-70) 61.79% PREDICTION: 5TH
REWIND (89-73) 78.23% PREDICTION: 2ND
TORNADOES (88-74) 68.44% PREDICTION: 4TH
ARMS (86-76) 61.03% PREDICTION: 6TH

WEST
INQUISITORS (111-51) 94.18% PREDICTION: 1ST
VESPUCCIS (95-67) 77.04% PREDICTION: 3RD
VORTEX (89-73) 71.57% PREDICTION: 4TH
PHENOMNN (85-77) 78.23% PREDICTION: 2ND
MONKEYS (80-82) 44.43% PREDICTION: 5TH
ASTARTES (54-108) 6.43% PREDICTION: 6TH