Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:40 am
Petro: You reference a "proof of concept" league. If I am understanding you correctly, doesn't this mean based on only one single league? Based on my simulations, wins range by 11 between the 1 in 10 and 9 and 10 result. Said another way, if I build a team that averages 90 wins over 1000 leagues, then 10% of the time it will win less than 84.5 games and 10% of the time it will win greater than 95.5 games, with the other 80% of results falling between 84.5 and 95.5.
My last year barnstormers final team averaged 91 wins over 1000 leagues, and had a +250 run diff at the 9 in 10 but only a +20 run diff at the 1 in 10. So if we extrapolate to your gold standard, the proof of concept league, your single season run diff of +180, while impressive, might be well above the true mean (it also might not).
In the prior 2 barnstormers finals, once rosters were set, I tried to rebuild the best possible team. Caveat, no one is saying my simulations are perfect, including myself. The summary of my results were as follows (for all teams I simulated 1000 seasons in both the 2015 and 2016 barnstormers finals):
A1: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 4 big stars
A2: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
A3: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
B1: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 4 big stars
B2: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
B3: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
C1: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 4 big stars
C2: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
C3: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
D1: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 4 big stars
D2: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
D3: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
E1: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 4 big stars
E2: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
E3: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
Rank-Order Wins, Best to Worst, Average for 2015 and 2016 Barnstormers Finals:
A1 = 93.4 wins
A2 = 93.0 wins
A3 = 92.6 wins
B1 = 91.4 wins
B2 = 91.4 wins
B3 = 90.5 wins
C1 = 88.6 wins
C2 = 89.3 wins
C3 = 88.8 wins
D1 = 88.3 wins
D2 = 88.5 wins
D3 = 88.5 wins
E1 = 87.9 wins
E2 = 88.2 wins
E3 = 87.2 wins
Conclusions: (1) Strongest conclusion is lefty parks are superior to all other parks, (2) Lefty park with Bonds and Vaughan are ridiculously dominant, (3) In most cases, 4 star pitchers performs at least as good and are easier to get versus small starters with 1-2 super relievers
One can make really good teams with either 4 big stars or small non stars. However, I will say that 4 stars is much easier to get than 5 non stars. If I missed on WaJohnson or Tiant, many others like Walsh and PAlex and Sutton can replace them. However, if the non star team misses on Pedro, the next best is a step down. And if the non star team misses on Pineiro or Henry, the next steps down are big.
Finally, any results that say lefty parks aren't the most dominant are just plain wrong. But I will concede, drafting both Bonds and Vaughan in a live draft is impossible. However, I thought drafting Wagner/Lajoie or Speaker/Cobb was almost as impossible, but one happened and one was a pick from happening.