2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 3:15 pm

Drafting last is an advantage re ballparks, however it tends to be mitigated because most of the more unique parks get drafted earlier. I have at least 10 parks that my team will be comfortable in so I don't plan to draft a stadium until the last round.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 3:25 pm

Ck- I was pretty confident going in and nothing has changed there except that I have my preferred template ready to go. You did hurt me last round with Carew. I was strongly considering taking Sisler and Carew with my next two picks; that new Sisler card would have superb synergy in combination with Cobb and Speaker. Had I gotten Sisler and Carew I was gonna call my team Grand Theft Baseball instead of the Wrong Stuff, but having taken Appling I'm now going for a more traditional OBP small ball team. That said, I didn't really mind Sisler going. He was gonna suck up a lot of $ and I was not certain that a third $10 M small ball god would justify the expenditure. But there is no upside to losing out on Carew.

Your $40M 4 man rotations with nickel relievers might have some issues with Maddux being only being an 8 inning guy; you may have to invest a little more in at least one reliever. You have great value guys with Delahanty and Carew and lots of flexibility still with your offense and defense. I'm not a fan of the 4 stud rotation but it has served a few guys quite well, I'm more interested in value with SP. Henry, Piniero and Heredia are arguably the best value starters, so the money that frees up will hopefully be used to maximum effect.
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cristano1

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 6:11 pm

After I was allowed to get Maddux, Wajo, and Tiant, I am miserable that you didn't agree to bet that 1k. Those three arms can't be stopped. Heredia, Henry, and those guys are definitely the best value... In a league with a 60m cap. I am crossing my fingers that I get placed in the same division as Pineiro, Heredia, Henry, (and Donald when you draft him next), and small Sutton. I would own all of those guys without a problem.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 8:13 pm

I believe you are in for a very rude awakening. For the past year I've been averaging close to 100 wins (depending on the cap) using small ball teams at 100M and 80M. There is no guarantee of a ring, however many wins you pile up. But I intend to demonstrate to you, as I did to Marc in the Proof of Concept league that he created in autumn of 2016 (he used that league to test out many of the ideas he eventually used in the last BS finals) that small ball with speed can absolutely dominate at 100M. After the draft is over, I'll post a link to that league. You are firmly convinced, it would appear, based on your past posts, that lefty oriented teams are the strongest followed by righthanded. But you are an emotional extremist and easily get locked into absolutist thinking that inclines you to dogmatism. I am equally convinced of the primacy of small ball - when done right - at these lower caps (100M or less). We will shortly see just whose concepts are correct.

BTW the team with the second best record with 89 wins was the lefty theme piloted by tmfw30 with a + 62 run differential. I won 96 with a +183 run differential.

ChrisS only won 72 games with the all righty theme. Next best was the 4 aces theme with 86 wins but a negative run differential. Then came Jet40's Murray relief team tied with Marc's 84 win neutral park. Marc did well to manage that team to 84 wins, I believe that he chose the worst theme on purpose.
Last edited by The Last Druid on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 8:29 pm

And now we wait. The consistent bottleneck spots this draft have been 9 and 3 with 2 (although labrat did say he was going to be tied up in a 3 day sales meeting through today so that is at least understandable) also slowing things down. In last years finals, sociopath vanished for a couple of days without entering his team but rather than taking responsibility for his absence, he instead opted to remark on his fellow managers being full time strat players, implying that they need to get lives. That theme continues this year, both predraft and now during the draft. He says that he prefers to spend his time with friends and family, but given that we are involved in a group project one might expect some attempt to move it along in a timely fashion based on the simple notion of consideration for others. But clearly that is asking too much.
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Sox040713

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostThu Feb 15, 2018 10:59 pm

Looks like we have potentially 6 small ball teams. 2 parks that will favor righties, a potential Fenway Park, a couple us cellular types and I thought Lab was headed for a League Park/Penmar but now im not sure.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 8:26 am

Bernie Ward is going League '34, unless I'm very much mistaken.
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cristano1

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 9:40 am

Petro: You reference a "proof of concept" league. If I am understanding you correctly, doesn't this mean based on only one single league? Based on my simulations, wins range by 11 between the 1 in 10 and 9 and 10 result. Said another way, if I build a team that averages 90 wins over 1000 leagues, then 10% of the time it will win less than 84.5 games and 10% of the time it will win greater than 95.5 games, with the other 80% of results falling between 84.5 and 95.5.

My last year barnstormers final team averaged 91 wins over 1000 leagues, and had a +250 run diff at the 9 in 10 but only a +20 run diff at the 1 in 10. So if we extrapolate to your gold standard, the proof of concept league, your single season run diff of +180, while impressive, might be well above the true mean (it also might not).

In the prior 2 barnstormers finals, once rosters were set, I tried to rebuild the best possible team. Caveat, no one is saying my simulations are perfect, including myself. The summary of my results were as follows (for all teams I simulated 1000 seasons in both the 2015 and 2016 barnstormers finals):
A1: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 4 big stars
A2: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
A3: Lefty Park, Bonds01, Vaughan35, Musial48, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
B1: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 4 big stars
B2: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
B3: Lefty Park, Ruth23, Snider55, Musial48, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
C1: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 4 big stars
C2: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
C3: Righty Park, GibsonN, Hender90, Belle95, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
D1: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 4 big stars
D2: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
D3: Forbes 57, Speaker12, Lajoie01, Duffy94, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)
E1: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 4 big stars
E2: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 3L Pedro, 4 small non stars, 1 super reliever (250+ IP for super reliever)
E3: Polo 41, GibsonN, Vaughan35, Mantle57, 5 small non stars including Pineiro and Henry, 2 super relievers (250+ IP for each super reliever)

Rank-Order Wins, Best to Worst, Average for 2015 and 2016 Barnstormers Finals:
A1 = 93.4 wins
A2 = 93.0 wins
A3 = 92.6 wins
B1 = 91.4 wins
B2 = 91.4 wins
B3 = 90.5 wins
C1 = 88.6 wins
C2 = 89.3 wins
C3 = 88.8 wins
D1 = 88.3 wins
D2 = 88.5 wins
D3 = 88.5 wins
E1 = 87.9 wins
E2 = 88.2 wins
E3 = 87.2 wins

Conclusions: (1) Strongest conclusion is lefty parks are superior to all other parks, (2) Lefty park with Bonds and Vaughan are ridiculously dominant, (3) In most cases, 4 star pitchers performs at least as good and are easier to get versus small starters with 1-2 super relievers

One can make really good teams with either 4 big stars or small non stars. However, I will say that 4 stars is much easier to get than 5 non stars. If I missed on WaJohnson or Tiant, many others like Walsh and PAlex and Sutton can replace them. However, if the non star team misses on Pedro, the next best is a step down. And if the non star team misses on Pineiro or Henry, the next steps down are big.

Finally, any results that say lefty parks aren't the most dominant are just plain wrong. But I will concede, drafting both Bonds and Vaughan in a live draft is impossible. However, I thought drafting Wagner/Lajoie or Speaker/Cobb was almost as impossible, but one happened and one was a pick from happening.
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Sox040713

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 11:28 am

Druid, you are correct on BD in League.
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The Last Druid

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Re: 2017 Finals Vote for CAP/DH/Draft Order

PostFri Feb 16, 2018 11:32 am

Looks like Don finally made a mistake. No need for an early Wrigley with Minute Maid already taken. Looks to me like only two teams are going righty...
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