Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:26 pm
If you don't have a obvious "tell" and it's a guy you drafted in the beginning because he's a good fit for your ballpark, I'd be more likely to give him two more starts, but, four starts is where you need to think about the guy. If he's got terrible numbers, but three of his four starts are decent and one was a horrendous start on the road, I'd be more tolerant. If three of his four starts were at home and he did poorly in all of them, I'd be less tolerant. Look at his home-road record. Look at his righty-lefty stats. Is he at least good against righties Is he at least good against lefties? Are opponents hitting over .300 against him from both sides of the plate? Is the difference between his second best card and fourth best card close? In other words, is he a play-it-safe kind of starter designed not to mess things up too bad long-term? If all five of his cards have ERA's between 3.40 and 3.80, for example, and his ERA after four starts is 4.50, then, you're pretty much getting what you wanted. Is he at least good at home? On the road? If nothing positive stands out, then four starts is about as far as I would go.
