Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:10 pm
I am going to defend Doug. I know, I know, not shocking. He is my uncle.
This is the tough part when stars get traded in a forever league. The return is always highly critiqued. Trading is subjective and there can be large variances in valuations. So, I'll try to explain where I, and possibly Doug, is coming from.
I try to look at trades 2 ways. 1. What are the 5 year values? 2. How replaceable are the trade pieces?
1. As I look at this deal, I break down trades with top players in potential 10 or 8 seasons, 10 mil. hitter seasons and 8 mil. pitcher seasons. Judge is a 10 this season and no one else is. In my 5 year eval, I could see 4 to 6 of those type seasons on one side and 1 to 2 and maybe none on the other. You guys know which side I feel what way about. Highly subjective. Bear with me
2. As I look at the replacement part, the deal comes down to Judge and Machado for Yelich, Severino and Realmuto/Carpenter. I gave very little value to Bauer as he is rarely above replacement level in a 12 team league. Realmuto gets hurt because catcher seems to have a high rate of 1 year wonders every year. Carpenter is a 1B now and is likely replacement level or just above moving forward. Once again, highly subjective.
Probably the biggest disappointment for me, and this is anytime a star is traded, is that, had I known that some of those guys were available, I would have been interested. Who's fault is that? Could be mine. I could say, "I would have offered a better deal." But, that would be disingenuous. I don't know that, but I would have liked the shot.
These are just my thoughts, musings and opinions. They don't mean anything, but might explain some things.
P.S. - I don't like meddling in other people's trade business. It sucks for a league.