Mystery League Add/Drop Question

Hi all, especially mystery league veterans:
Was wondering if anyone has noticed a higher frequency of extreme stats in the mystery league, especially in the early going, relative to other strato leagues. I've come across what I think is something akin to a potential "mystery league" psyche out, with a guy vastly underperforming only to greatly turn that around at some point. I have sometimes dropped those guys and sometimes kept em, but am having a difficult time with a current Eckersley situation, as even his worse card shouldn't produce this kind of anomaly.
I am assuming 50/50 split on batters/pitchers card and understand that may be part of the problem. I also get that it can and does happen all the time both in rl and strato where a player can turn around their season dramatically but just wondered two things:
Anyone else notice a higher than average frequency in the extreme start? and more importantly currently,
What would you do with Eck? The team could be my best ever if not for his performances and don't know how patient to be with a guy I'd be find with using his worst card (if there weren't better options of course).

Thanks for the help and insight. Let's ask Rosie to include any guys in the next add that would make it possible to have mystery leagues for every decade, right?
Tim
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1480811

I am assuming 50/50 split on batters/pitchers card

You don't have to assume 50/50. Use the MISC tab and you'll see Eck has been on the hitters card 47x to the pitchers card 35x.

No! These hot and cold streaks happen in EVERY single format of the game, AND in real life... Mike Trout had a sub .600 OPS for me well into over 200 at bats, when his real life OPS well over a 1.000 in real life. This was obviously not a Mystery League, and I did not cut him, of course. This is a rare occurrence, but it does happen, we are playing thousands of leagues here, so crazy things are bound to happen ... When this happens it is called a, statistical anomaly....

Now if a Mystery player gives you no tells and is performing this poorly after over 200 at bats, the odds are very very good he is on his worst card... However, if your player is performing poorly after 40, 50 or even 100 at bats, he could still be on a very nice card..... This is what makes managing so tough, but don't make it tougher than it is by looking for hidden meanings...

You don't have to assume 50/50. Use the MISC tab and you'll see Eck has been on the hitters card 47x to the pitchers card 35x.

Amen!


I am wondering how many people don't know this, or do this?

I see guys drop a pitcher after one outing. Well maybe 9 rolls were on the batters' cards and only 3 were on the pitcher's card, how can you tell anything from that? You can't!

If you want to be good at this game, you have to look at (and inside) the numbers!.... Or you can just do what I do, and get very lucky!

See you in the Finals League!

Tim wrote:

Thanks for the help and insight. Let's ask Rosie to include any guys in the next add that would make it possible to have mystery leagues for every decade, right?

Amen to that! And welcome to the Mystery Game!

As far as Dennis Eckersly goes, I can't tell you what to do, but I will tell you that I agree even his worst card is not that bad, and I give guys a lot of rope before I cut them, UNLESS I KNOW they are on a bad card, or their worst card...

It looks to me like Eckersly has given up three ballpark HRs out of three chances (could have been on the hitters' cards and probably was), and 3 out of 3 ballpark singles... He has only pitched 19 innings.... More rolls have been on the batters' cards than on his card.... So he most definitely could be on a very good card or even his best card.

Wow, thanks a ton all -- I had read about the misc but completely forgot about it and nice to have that information to confirm what I was thinking. Have a busy weekend ahead of me as have an entirely new piece of info to look at relative to a lot of guys.

I really do appreciate the answers and hope other newbies will look and see that as well cuz we definitely need all the help we can get to be competitive and appreciate everyone's willingness to help.

Can someone please remind me what the game cutoffs are as well for the reduction in amount we get back? For the life of me I can't find that anywhere and even though it tells me to look in the league tab, just can't find it now?

Thanks again and I'm gonna hang on to Eck. I'm hopeful he's given up all the homeruns he will this season and also hoping for no more blown saves. Good Luck all,
Tim

Free Agent Drop Penalty
5/10/20% (default) - games 1-41: 5%, games 42-80: 10%, games 81+: 20%

Jimmy:
Thanks, appreciate that and next year will do a better job of paying attention to that relative to cuts. This year just been trying to hang on and keep my head above water but know it will slow down for me the more seasons of mystery I can play. Good Luck the rest of the way,
Tim