The Bringer of Rain: GB/FB Ratio Revisited

All bunts (sac and sqz) are ruled GB (incl only to say they are in fact recorded at all).
All singles are ruled as GB.
All ground outs, ground out double plays, force plays and infield errors are ruled GB.
All doubles, triples and home runs are ruled as FB.
All fly outs, line outs, foul outs and pop outs are ruled as FB.

On my team, it's basically one type of player: high slugging (selected from reviewing past GB-FB ratios).

Since they are all strong sluggers, I did not intend them to be used in any particular role in the batting order. With my own lineups, I tend to go with high OBP 1-2, followed by OPS (more or less) through the rest of the lineup.

My thoughts are, for 20xx at least, that SLG matters more than AVG and OBP. The higher you SLG, the higher you finish in runs scored (generally, of course, and yes I recognize the exceptions).

So taking things a step further, I'm wondering if today's fascination with launch angle and hitting up on the ball is detrimental to the fan's interest in the game. Home runs, strikeouts and boring innings are way up. Attendance is down.

Is it at all related?

Percentage of at bats ending with a ball in play:

1920 - 85%
1950 - 80%
1970 - 75%
Now. - 67.4%

Then there's this whole no-hitters thru 6-7 innings thing...

I've heard it argued that "the shift" is responsible for lopping off a big chunk of hits. Doesn't that beg the question, "Why can't a multimillionaire MLB batter learn to check swing/bunt/poke/punch a baseball to the opposite field?" And I guess the answer is that a home run or double every x at bats is worth that much more than a single every y at bats. Statistically I have no doubt this is true, but as a fan I'm not feeling it.

Watching Walks, Strikeouts and Homeruns these days is similar to watching grown men play a slow pitch softball game on a little league field--no wonder attendance is down--part of it is all the little ballparks that have been built the last few years.


On TV I've noticed more than once this season, the whole front two rows with their heads down messing with their phones--I wonder why they bother to show up, but then again the game generally is boring.

Sooner or later, I would think good hitters are going to start poking the ball through the opposite side on all these over-shift defenses--take their easy singles--but (assuming the pitchers throw inside) they need that inside out swing you learn by playing pepper a lot. I kind of wonder if this ERA of players played pepper very much.


The game goes through stages--it will change--but I think the launch angle thing will be in full swing until some new larger ballparks are built or they just knock a few bleacher seats out and move the fences back--maybe the pitchers should go on strike for more favorable ballpark deminsions--larger parks mean higher Batting averages, better defensive outfielders as a neccesity and to me more exciting baseball in general.


I hear the Yankees may hit 300 HR this season as a team--bad news in a way--I wonder if a Pete Rose type rookie could make a roster these days.

Going back to the league on my first post:

This is the league, with their corresponding GB-FB ratios (pitching, hitting)

OKS 1.40, 1.26
SPR 1.52, 1.29
COL 1.27, 1.52
RIC 1.28, 1.37

WIN 1.66, 0.90
SIC 1.28, 1.47
HOU 1.29, 1.52
HOB 1.23, 1.50

BRO 1.32, 1.42
FRE 1.34, 1.20
PUL 1.31, 1.38
MAG 1.28, 1.41

The average GB-FB ratio for both pitching and hitting is 1.35. So if you’re above that in pitching, that’s good, and if you’re below that in hitting, that’s also good.

Now, if you order the league by combined rank for both pitching and hitting, this is what you get:

Winning Inc combined rank is 1st: Won the Central, Lost the Finals
Freedom Riders combined rank is tied for 2nd: Wildcard, Won the Championship
OKS Ice18men2 combined rank is tied for 2nd: Won the East
Springfield Atoms combined rank is tied for 2nd: League high run diff of +92 but missed playoffs
Bronze Bluebirds combined rank is 6th: Won the West

What does this mean to you?

Maybe not much, because it’s only one league.

What does this mean to me?

Ground balls help your pitchers prevent runs, and fly balls help your hitters accumulate runs. The GB-FB ratio correlates very well with slugging. Having said that, when you sacrifice balance for one very high dimension, you probably give up some overall effectiveness. Too much of a good thing, whether it be home runs, stolen bases, or anything else, likely will only get you so far.

I don’t think maximizing your GB-FB ratio acts as a magic bullet, however, there may be something toward having a certain amount of awareness regarding GB-FB (ie SLG) when you build your teams. You may believe an out is an out is an out or a hit is a hit is a hit, but those results are not necessarily created equally.

as far as GB/FB ratios In Strat lineups--trying to avoid a lot of GBa (double play possibilities) with higher OB (with normal power) usually gets me further than High slugging that is all BB, a few singles, and HR--in general.

(though I am not practicing what I am preaching this season)

Maybe you are right with the current set and the incredible amount of HRs hit, but I think OB over slugging (as long as you have just decent HR with high-ish Doubles) usually wins out. Normally I can get better overall OPS with lower HR for the money--though this set may be priced a bit different from past ones.

Thanks ! Very interesting!

FWIW, just read this on Bleacher Report:

As legends gathered in Cooperstown, New York, last month on the Friday evening of Hall of Fame induction weekend, it was business as usual for modern day baseball.

In Houston, the Astros and Texas Rangers struck out 19 times. In Boston, the Red Sox and Minnesota Twins missed Strike 3 21 times. In Detroit, the Tigers and Cleveland Indians struck out 16 times and also hit five home runs.

And in Cincinnati that night, the Reds and Philadelphia Phillies were striking out as if they were 18 blindfolded men chasing a housefly. The clubs combined to whiff an astounding 14 times...in the first three innings. By game's end, they had tallied 23 strikeouts and 14 hits, and it wasn't exactly as if Mario Soto was facing Steve Carlton (no offense, Anthony DeSclafani and Nick Pivetta). Six of the game's 10 runs scored on home runs. DeSclafani didn't make it out of the fifth inning, the Reds used five pitchers...and they won.

"We could sit here and talk all day about the way the game has been changed, and not in a good way," Hall of Fame reliever Goose Gossage says. "I try to watch a baseball game, and I find it very difficult to be able to watch today.

"It just breaks my heart to see the changes that have been made. Huge changes."

Says Hall of Famer Don Sutton, now an analyst for Atlanta Braves television broadcasts: "As soon as somebody decides it's not a good idea, then people will draft differently. They'll train differently. But right now it's about the home run and the strikeout and give me five good innings [from a starting pitcher]. Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton are not loving this. Neither is Koufax or Drysdale."

Hall of Famers are not the only ones voicing their displeasure with an all-or-nothing game in which:

• The ball is not put in play in roughly a third of all plate appearances, 31.6 percent of which end in a strikeout, walk or hit batter.

• The .248 MLB batting average is the lowest since 1972, the season before the American League instituted the designated hitter, when it was .244.

• There were more strikeouts than hits in a month for the first time in MLB history in April and, through early August, MLB had accumulated more strikeouts than hits overall. The race is on for whether it will happen in a full season for the first time."

What gets me is the inability to take a walk.

I'm 52 and grew up in NY. One of my favorite players to watch was Vladimir Guerrero.
In his prime, he was one of the best. He could do it all.
NO pitch was safe.
He averaged 56 walks a season.
He was truly a "bad ball" hitter.

I watch guys today, and think what their cards would be like, if they took 1 or 2 more walks a week.

I wouldn't mind it so much if these same guys could hit like Vlad. But they can't.

A prime example would be Dee Gordon. With all his speed and no power, would it kill the guy to walk more than 25x in a season?

What gets me is the inability to take a walk.

I'm going down into the Three True Outcomes wormhole, and noticed that despite all the talk about walks, strikeouts and home runs, in our leagues (SOM Online) walks tend to stay pretty close to the mid-500 range.

So I put together a team looking to get over 1000 walks plus home runs with the emphasis on maximizing the walks. It appears only a small percentage of teams break into the 600 BB range, so I'm going to shoot for 700 and see what happens in terms of total offense.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1495507

With some of my defensive ratings, my pitchers are already raising an eyebrow...