My preparation for the playoffs

If this can help...These are the settings I used during the season, with the usage results. It will show the contrast with how I intend to use the settings for the next 2 games:

Pitcher name Don't Rel B4...Hook.....MaxIP....Results
Brown, Kevin S7 ..F7.....Blank....Blank....299 innings
Millwood, Kevin S7 Blank....Blank....7ip max...208 innings
Fernandez, Jose S6 Blank.....Blank....6ip....153 innings
Fassero, Jeff S7 Blank.....qk......6ip.....139 innings
Henry, Butch S6 Blank.....qk......6ip.....137 innings

Relievers Don't Rel.B4...Hook...Avoid....Results
Murray, Dale ......F6.......Qk....Blank....247 innings
Burke, Tim ......F6.......Qk....Blowout/6th...163 innings but he was hurt for 15 games
Shaw, Jeff ......F6.......Qk....7th......43 innings
Heredia, Gil ......F6.......Qk....Blank....69 innings

Bullpen Roles

Middle Man Murray
Middle Man Burke
Mopup Heredia
Behind & Late Burke
Tied & Late Burke
Tied & 9th+ Burke
Setup Burke
Closer Burke
Closer Murray
Setup Murray
Tied & Late Murray
Tied & 9th+ Murray
Closer vs. R Shaw
RH Specialist Shaw
Behind & Late Shaw
Mopup Shaw
Closer vs. L Heredia
Closer vs. R Heredia
LH Specialist Heredia

VERY IMPORANT, on TEAM STRATEGY
Closer usage: Regular
Relief usage: Agressive

This detail in "Team Strategy" is very important. IF I had the setting "maximize" besides "closer usage", then basically STRAT would have ignored all the settings I had for Burke and Murray besides closer, and they would have ended up with 40 innings each. By setting "regular closer usage", then the SOM engine will follow your instructions to the letter (for example, it will use Murray in the 6th inning (since I have him as my first "Middle man") even though I have him as a closer below.

I'll echo the comments about this being a great thread. There were many of these types of threads in the Sporting News days. Not so much recently. Thanks for taking the time to share your detailed thoughts. I have a couple of comments/quibbles which I hope can lead to a discussion.

First, I agree with the comment above that if I have one dominant pitcher, he is going in Games 1 and 5, independent of what my opponent may do. It's not so much about pretending there is a human factor as about my concern I won't get to Game 6 unless I start my best pitchers early in the series. If I have pitchers that are of similar ability, then I absolutely try to match up as you describe.

Second, I find the comment about not wanting to "waste" a good pitcher a bit amusing. In this game the difference between elite managers and very bad managers is about 7-8 wins out of 100. Luck is a huge factor. In the case that luck is going against me, I want to my best pitchers pitching as early in the series as possible so that I can possibly pull out close games.

Here is an example from Game 6 in the finals of a recent $60M league. I'm starting seven lefty batters against Bill Swift, who is a 8R. I have Atley Donald going against him. There is no way I can lose, right? Wrong - not only do I lose, but I get blown out 9-1.

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/437090/992

This game reinforces my believe that I want my best pitchers to pitch as early in the playoff series as possible.

I also have a question for you. You've set some of your relievers to F6. In that case, I don't think the Quick/Slow hook check boxes make in any difference. Have you found that they do?

Thanks again for your very thoughtful and detailed post.

First, I agree with the comment above that if I have one dominant pitcher, he is going in Games 1 and 5, independent of what my opponent may do. It's not so much about pretending there is a human factor as about my concern I won't get to Game 6 unless I start my best pitchers early in the series. If I have pitchers that are of similar ability, then I absolutely try to match up as you describe.

Well, there is some consensus here about starting your ace on games 1 and 5!!

Don't get me wrong, many times I started game 1 with my best pitcher, I did it for this current team both in the semis and the finals, but like I said, I much prefer go through a full analysis and see the benefits and costs of going with alternatives.

I was looking for an example of a situation of where I did start my ace #3 and would do it again. I couldn't find one in ATG (I didn't look thourough, though) but I found a good example, played out in 2015:


http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1428894
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sched ... on/1428894

I started the series with Keuchel, a very good starter, but still worth 2M less than Arrieta and with an ERA almost a full run over Arrieta's ERA. Arrieta was my ace, but started in game 3 only.

Looking back at this series, I understand why I started Arrieta #3. First, the opposing team in the semis had no ace (he relied on a very strong offense and a good bullpen), so there was no issue of having a bad match-up. Second, and most importantly, I had a very weak #4 pitcher, so I needed as much help as possible from the bullpen for game 4. Arrieta was the one giving me the best shot for a complete game, so it makes all the sense of the world that I had him #3.

BTW, we did lose "pivotal" game 5, and we had our back against the walls 2-3, but with our ace ready for game 7, and Kershaw ready for game 6, I don't think I was too nervous about that series!!

I also have a question for you. You've set some of your relievers to F6. In that case, I don't think the Quick/Slow hook check boxes make in any difference. Have you found that they do?

Oh, yes, a big difference. The F6 instruction does override any other instructions...up until the pitcher reaches F6. Once the pitcher reaches the F6 state, then all instructions proceed. If you have a slow hook option, Hal might want to leave the pitcher there, even though the match up is not good. With the quick hook, the pitcher will be almost automatically removed.

Another very obvious scenario where you better start your ace from another spot than #1 (this time, in the semis).

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sched ... on/1441146

Pedro is my ace. I have the card where he needs to rest 4 days. This means you have the choice of either having him 2 games in the semis, or 2 games in the Finals, but not both.

Very easy decision: start Pedro on game 2 of the semis. If you need a game 7, he will be available, and if not, he will still be available for starting game #1 in the Finals.

I realize that I should give examples where my strategy didn't work out, and trust me, there are some...

one example: http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sched ... on/1430795 where Clemens never had the chance to pitch game 7...

If you get to Game 7 of the semis without maximizing usage of the best pitcher in the set.

I'm going to start my best pitchers as often as I can in the playoffs. I think we'll have to agree to disagree about this.

We split 1-1, so we're now tied 2-2 with Kevin Brown on the mound for a last time at Ameriquest.
We got very lucky since our win concluded on a potential grand slam BP homerun by our opponent that came just short.

Hal responded exactly as commended by the settings I had for the night. Butch Henry pitched a max of 6 innings, and Hal never had to removed him before as he was perfect (no run in 6 innings). Fassero began the 7th inning (I had him max 7 innings), but was removed when he allowed a single after one out, which is basically what I wanted.

B-No hook no F rating: Fassero will be removed when he gets close to his stamina, likely in the 7th inning. So I would expect that Burke is called in in the 7th inning as soon as Fassero allows something

Burke came in for both games, which was expected since I had him higher than Murray in my instructions. Burke faced all hitters in a F7 or better, except for one in a F6 fatigue mode--but Hal probably kept Burke instead of changing him for Murray despite the "quick hook" instruction because the hitter is a right-handed--Hal's algorithm probably had Burke (and his 2R) a bit better than Murray's 2L despite the F6 state (but nobody knows what code lines are behind these F-states, so it's purely speculation).

So Burke now is unavailable for game 5, but Murray has a fresh arm. We can live with that.

With Brown on the mound, I want him to throw as long as he can in a non-fatigued mode. So we have him at F8 quick hook. I don't have any max innings. A complete game is welcome if he is in control.

I did a few changes in the bullpen instructions. Since we are now facing 4 left-handed hitters instead of 3, and considering the stadium, we will have Heredia (instead of Shaw) as our second best reliever, and Heredia, not Shaw, will now be our first "mop-up guy". But even then, contrary to game 3-4, I don't want to rest Murray in case we get an early exit from Brown, even if the game gets blown away. I don't want to throw the towel early in the game especially with my opponent's ace on the mound for the 6th game. Besides, I now have the insurance that I will have at least Burke available for the last two games of the series. I nevertheless keep Heredia as my first "mop-up" in the instructions because if the game gets blown away late, for example in the 8th inning, I want him over Murray (in the rare case that Brown allows many runs without getting in a fatigue mode---think for example of a 6-0 lost where Brown gets fatigued only in the 8th inning). But I will also instruct Heredia to not come in before the 7th inning. Just to make sure that Hal doesn't get mixed up with Shaw, he too will be instructed to not come before the 7th inning. So the sole and unique reliever available for the game before the 7th inning is Murray. Just to make sure Hal really understand, I also put the name of Murray in the "mop up" bullpen role. It's probably useless, but anyway. I will set him at F3, so basically I will live and die with Murray if he ever comes in.

I just had a similar situation in a recently concluded 60M Finals series that my team was successful in:

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sched ... on/1488359.

My opponent was a strong power hitting team vs RHP, specifically in Polo 41, while my team played in Forbes 09 for game 1-2, 6-7 if necessary. His team also had an injured Dick Allen 3L where I lucked out. I debated starting Kazmir in Game 2 and going back to him in Game 7. I also had a great matchup with reverse LH Sadecki available. My decision was should I maximize a clear advantage in throwing LH's in the first two games over ace Fernandez & *JR Richard. I decided that Fernandez would be game 1, with Richard for game 2, and hoping to mitigate my opponents BP#power @Polo (Ashby, Kal Daniels, Henderon & Doyle)saved my LH for two games at his park. It worked out for me given the context. If my home team played in a HR park I probably would have attempted to get those LHP as many starts as possible over my aces. But in higher cap leagues, where teams have more of an opportunity to be more balanced and the cards have more natural HR's, I would try to maximize my best pitchers starts.

Good example indeed.

Well, your gutsy move was NOT to use Jose Fernandez twice in the semis...but I see that he started game 162 so he wasn't available for 2 games in the semis. Thanksfully for you Pineiro got the job done.

VERY IMPORANT, on TEAM STRATEGY

Relief usage: Agressive

Why Agressive and not Normal or Conservative?

This is probably the single most function I play with because I never get it right.

When is AGGRESSIVE optimal
When is NORMAL optimal
When is CONSERVATIVE optimal

Pay no attention to those silly settings, Pacoboy. Just set closer to maximize and forget this whole thread.