NLD 49 - New and improved with "Louisana Lightning"!

Ratings, finally.

Ratings would say that Semper and YCB will battle it out in the west with the loser getting the WC, Doug is the clear favorite in the Central while Stoney will dominate the East.

MIller, Dale, KLX and JTJ are all almost dead even and would be considered dark horses for a playoff spot, probably a WC.

Big A, Falcon, Spider and Jeep, according to the ratings, should bring up the rear.

The reality is pretty close this time around. Stones and Doug are in first. Semper is in second with a great run Dif. KLX is defying the ratings and YCB should be better according to the ratings.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
SemperG   7821   4984   155   5139   2682   W
YCB....   8378   5055   698   5753   2626   W
Doug...   8289   5219   485   5704   2585   C
Stoney.   7736   4784   447   5230   2505   E
Millerm   8435   5395   611   6006   2429   C
Dale...   7172   4587   160   4747   2425   E
KLX....   8120   5154   552   5706   2414   W
JoeTJet   7985   5096   485   5581   2404   C
BigAlrc   7894   5224   393   5617   2276   E
Falcon.   7941   5329   409   5739   2203   E
Spider.   7860   4770   890   5660   2200   W
Jeep...   7784   5145   640   5784   1999   C


Overall

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
SemperG   2682   2   4   -2   W
YCB....   2626   2   7   -5   W
Doug...   2585   3   4   -1   C
Stoney.   2505   4   4   0   E
Millerm   2429   5   5   0   C
Dale...   2425   5   6   -1   E
KLX....   2414   5   2   3   W
JoeTJet   2404   5   6   -1   C
BigAlrc   2276   7   4   3   E
Falcon.   2203   8   5   3   E
Spider.   2200   8   9   -1   W
Jeep...   1999   11   6   5   C


YCB is way below and Jeep is much better. Now Jeep did make a bunch of moves which probably hurt his rating vis-à-vis his record. KlX, Big A and Falcon are also a bit high.

O Ratings

These are super close across the board. Big A is a bit high which probably explains his better record (he's also a bit high in pitching)

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Millerm   8435   2   2   0   C
YCB....   8378   2   3   -1   W
Doug...   8289   3   4   -1   C
KLX....   8120   4   2   2   W
JoeTJet   7985   5   6   -1   C
Falcon.   7941   5   6   -1   E
BigAlrc   7894   6   3   3   E
Spider.   7860   6   5   1   W
SemperG   7821   7   7   0   W
Jeep...   7784   7   7   0   C
Stoney.   7736   7   7   0   E
Dale...   7172   10   10   0   E


P/F

Falcon and Jeep are much higher than the ratings expect. One thing to note is the Dale should be much, much better than everyone else on defense.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Dale...   4747   1   2   -1   E
SemperG   5139   4   1   3   W
Stoney.   5230   4   2   2   E
JoeTJet   5581   7   5   2   C
BigAlrc   5617   7   5   2   E
Spider.   5660   7   8   -1   W
Doug...   5704   8   6   2   C
KLX....   5706   8   6   2   W
Falcon.   5739   8   4   4   E
YCB....   5753   8   8   0   W
Jeep...   5784   8   4   4   C
Millerm   6006   11   10   1   C


Ok, this is from my web page. Let me know what other questions I can answer. The link to my web page is at the bottom.

What are the ratings based on?
This system has evolved over 16 years and there’s over a man-year of effort put into it. It’s not trivial. Initially, it was an OPS type system for hitting and pitching. Then fielding was incorporated.

The newest generation includes situational elements and "chain" assumptions. In other words, it takes into account how many times certain situations occur and then translates the situational probabilities into a rating based on the probability of an outcome on each card. It even takes into account the fact that some players hit into many double plays or that if someone is a good clutch hitter. The system is based on total bases. It looks at how often on average situations will occur and then measures the bases advanced by runners and the batter based on the outcome.

In the system, a point is awarded for each base a runner is advanced. So reaching first on a walk, single, or E1 gets you 1 base. We then looked at average situations occuring to determine how many bases an outcome impacts. For example, a walk will move up any forced runner. We sum up the probability of each situation that advances a runner by the # of runners advancing. For example, a home run will advance all the base runners. As stated before, we assume bases empty occurs 49.2% of the time. A runner on first only occurs 22.2% of the time. A home run will give 3 points for any runner on first so we multiply the probability of this occuring by 3. We do this for all possible situations to come up with the total bases factor that is the heart of the rating system.

One other note, the rating system is slightly different for hitters than pitchers. That's because a hitter's average situational occurance (number of runners on base) is independent of his card. Whereas, a pitcher's average situational occurance is dependent on his card. That is, a batter can't influence the outcome of the preceding batter, but a pitcher influences all outcomes as long as he's on the mound.

Defensive ratings, speed, steal, wild pitch, passed balls, hold and balks are all taken into consideration by the ratings.

How do you do the team ratings?
The method by which I rate a team is pretty general. For example, I take an educated guess at the number of innings pitched by all the relievers. For example, it is quite likely that your best set up guy will get more innings than the other guys including your closer. I also adjust for strong versus weak starting rotations and how many innings they'll get vis-a-vis the relievers.

Overall Rating - Sum of Starting Lineup points –( 9* the average pitcher rating)

The Average pitcher rating is:
(Aver Start rating) * %of anticipated starter innings + (Avg Rel rating)*(1-%of anticipated starter innings)

Start rating is computed by entering the anticipated number of starts for each starter and calculating the average from there.

Relief Ratings take into account how often a RP is expected to pitch. This is to compensate for the way Hal will (over) use setup and closers.

The starting lineup points take into consideration platoons on a 70/30 ratio.

Injury adjusted ratings are used in the calculation. These ratings are adjusted assuming a "standard" backup.

Bench is not considered.

So I get off to a horrible start, 14 games under .500 at 26-40. Then fight my way back from the dead to get into contention 3 games above .500. Then the ratings come out, and my team isn't supposed to be very good. I haven't won since, the losing streak now at 8 and counting.

I KNEW I shouldn't have let my players read the papers.

So I get off to a horrible start, 14 games under .500 at 26-40. Then fight my way back from the dead to get into contention 3 games above .500. Then the ratings come out, and my team isn't supposed to be very good. I haven't won since, the losing streak now at 8 and counting.

I KNEW I shouldn't have let my players read the papers.

LOL

BTW, one correction to the team notes above, I put the actual IP in for all the pitchers and I also adjusted for the number of probably LHSP/RHSP each team will face.

Looks about right for my miserable team. Fielding is poor - as was pointed out during the draft. My relievers have been a big disappointment. I spent a lot on Kluber and I've thought about changing the team name to Kluber Klobbered.

Thanks for the explanation of your ratings. As always, they are very interesting. In the past I've had a similar order for hitting and fielding, but fall short on pitching. I think I underestimate innings for strong pitchers and over for weak ones. For hitters, I do consider bench - estimating their likelihood of playing for injured players.

Looks about right for my miserable team. Fielding is poor - as was pointed out during the draft. My relievers have been a big disappointment. I spent a lot on Kluber and I've thought about changing the team name to Kluber Klobbered.

Thanks for the explanation of your ratings. As always, they are very interesting. In the past I've had a similar order for hitting and fielding, but fall short on pitching. I think I underestimate innings for strong pitchers and over for weak ones. For hitters, I do consider bench - estimating their likelihood of playing for injured players.

Well, injuries *are* taken into consideration, but the ratings assume a generic sub rating so, if you have a really good sub, particularly in the 100 mil leagues, it's a bit off.

Luck Factors

The factors would say that Doug and Stones have been the most lucky of the group with Doug has been super lucky with bphrs, one run games/pythag and unearned runes, BUT hasn't rolled on his card as much as the other guy has and is behind in bpsi's.

Stones being +11 in one run games and also ahead in bpsi's. In addition, his errors have led to a disproportionate dearth of unearned runs. He has, however, had more injuries than expected.

Milleram has been a bit lucky with one run games and injuries.

On the other side, YCB and JTJ have been unlucky. For YCB he's behind in HRs, one run games/pytag and injuries while JTJ is way behind in HRs, behind in singles and one run games

Most of the rest are reasonably close although you can look at your own luck below and judge for yourself.

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Mgr .. .   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
Doug...   59   -2%   12%   6   4   -2.2%   45%   -42   3.5
Stoney.   63   3%   -2%   11   1   0.6%   40%   5   3
Millerm   68   2%   6%   6   2   0.5%   60%   -73   2
Jeep...   70   7%   1%   -4   0   2.0%   78%   -51   1.5
BigA...   64   2%   9%   -2   -3   1.3%   67%   -24   0
Semper.   66   -1%   -6%   -7   -4   1.8%   49%   -30   -0.5
Falcon.   55   -1%   -3%   2   1   -2.6%   62%   -24   -1
KLX....   58   2%   -10%   3   2   -2.6%   64%   -63   -1
Spider.   62   0%   -6%   -6   -2   1.5%   48%   -22   -1
dale...   61   -4%   -9%   -1   4   0.6%   77%   -47   -1.5
JTJ....   62   -3%   -13%   -5   0   0.5%   69%   -15   -3
YCB....   68   0%   -8%   -7   -4   -1.3%   73%   35   -3.5


Fielding

The numbers are very close to what would be expected with really only Stoney just a little low

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Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif   
SemperG   155   1   1   0   W
Dale...   160   1   2   -1   E
BigAlrc   393   4   5   -1   E
Falcon.   409   4   4   0   E
Stoney.   447   4   6   -2   E
JoeTJet   485   5   6   -1   C
Doug...   485   5   5   0   C
KLX....   552   6   6   0   W
Millerm   611   7   8   -1   C
Jeep...   640   7   7   0   C
YCB....   698   8   8   0   W
Spider.   890   11   11   0   W


No comments on the luck factors???

Also, did you notice that they changed the win pct display. What do you guys think?

“Ratings would say that Semper and YCB will battle it out in the west with the loser getting the WC, Doug is the clear favorite in the Central while Stoney will dominate the East.“


Ya jinxed me

And after all I gutted my lineup 1/3 into the season now I’m tripled jinxed jinxed

I may need to drop a few more players and see what happens

Otherwise, JOE I love the rankings and the luck factor

Your work tells me that I should never mess with my team DESPITE a i sim most of our league seasons on my own