CHEATING or skewed Game Engine? Need a Statistician!

The probability of it happening to a specific manager/team? Probably less than 1%
The probability of it happening to any one of 200 managers/teams who play in the finals next week or month? I'd say there is probably a reasonable bet it will because 1/200 = .5 percent

There is no skewed game engine proof until results of hundreds of managers such as yourself are generated.

I don't for a moment believe that HAL is out to get anyone.

But I do believe there is a lot going on WITHIN THE GAME ENGINE that we are not aware of that we really should be.

I remember 10-15 years ago in the computer football game they finally admitted that there were automatic rerolls of something. I don't remember the exact details but it was something that totally affected the game and it was like pulling teeth to get them to admit anything was going on when it was quite obvious to everyone playing that something was rotten in Denmark (no offense to our Danish players).

There are just too many things that happen within this game over and over again that defy logic or odds in my opinion.

One quick short example: INJURIES - If you run multiple teams how many times have you seen the same guy get injured on multiple teams in one night? It seems to happen to me all the time. Or how many times have you seen the same guy get injured for you 6-8 times in a 500-600 Plate appearance season despite 1 in 216 odds of it happening a single time.

Could it be random, I guess, but it seems to happen too often for me to believe it's random.

There is also a lot more to good rolls (and running "good") than simply whether the roll is on the pitchers card or the hitters card. Assuming the splits are equal (or close to), you can also run "good" or "bad" on many other things, such as ballpark homeruns, ballpark singles, taking the extra base, successful bunting and hitting and running, successful steals, and defensive x-rolls converted to outs. On most of my teams, I'll take minus 100 on the hitter/pitcher rolls in return for plus 25 on the ballpark homerun splits. It also is very important on which cards are getting the positive rolls -- is it my No. 3 $10M hitter or my $2M no. 9 hitter SS.

"If you needed to make a choice at random, you might flip a coin or roll a die. If you did, you'd have a leg up on your computer. That's because computer software can never generate a truly random number."

https://curiosity.com/topics/why-comput ... curiosity/

"If you needed to make a choice at random, you might flip a coin or roll a die. If you did, you'd have a leg up on your computer. That's because computer software can never generate a truly random number."

https://curiosity.com/topics/why-comput ... curiosity/

I tried to read it, but that page froze up my laptop with all the bullshit ads!
And I think we all know by now that randomization programs are never "truly" random.

Wait. I thought Strat hired someone to roll actual dice for all these games.

Think. If there was anything other than random luck involved here that would mean someone made the effort to write code to specifically favor one team.

Given how cheap they normally are do you really believe they would spend the programming effort to skew results for whatever reason?

Your first assumption is patently false, the fact that something is not random does not mean a conclusion can be made over who is being favored.

As to your second point are you stating that the powers that be would, because they are so cheap would not expend the effort to pay a programmer 10 grand to program in a way to reduce the 700-800 thousand dollars given away in free teams each year?

Think. If there was anything other than random luck involved here that would mean someone made the effort to write code to specifically favor one team.

Given how cheap they normally are do you really believe they would spend the programming effort to skew results for whatever reason?

Your first assumption is patently false, the fact that something is not random does not mean a conclusion can be made over who is being favored.

As to your second point are you stating that the powers that be would, because they are so cheap would not expend the effort to pay a programmer 10 grand to program in a way to reduce the 700-800 thousand dollars given away in free teams each year?

LMAO! I doubt if Strat's gross annual revenue is much more than 800 grand!

There is no legitimate reason why there would be cheating. For who and by who? Last night I had horrible luck. First team, minute maid lose 1-0 back to back hitters fly outs on 1-16 bp hrs. Second team Pete Browning injured for 7th time this year. 3rd team all lefty lineup with all good hitters beaten by cheapo 9R sutton who pitches complete game losing shut out on 9th inning solo homer. So if you know who is cheating against you let me know. Or maybe it is a dice game and everything is random

It is very easy to confuse people with statistics. There is a TV commercial bemoaning the fact that there have been 26 (once in) 500 year storms in the US in the past decade. They neglect to mention that there are several thousand weather reporting stations in the US. Every major city has one, every airport conducting scheduled passenger service has one, most county seats have one, etc.

https://www.weather.gov/arh/stationlist

Any given storm can trigger several of these stations to report a 500 year storm.

The same thing goes here. If the dice turn against me for a period of time, the sky is falling. If they turn against my opponent for a period of time, well, I'm just a good manager.

My teams went 21-6 a few nights ago. I suspect that I got lots of favorable dice rolls. The same thing has happened to all of you. Have you ever dug into the results to see just how friendly your dice were those nights?