What are the odds of this?

Lots of answers, only one correct one of course.

Do tell.

Spider67,
Is this the formula parameters for the Excel Binominal Distribution?

=BINOM.DIST(3,27,1/216,TRUE) (I am using 216 for simplicity, although 270 might be more accurate as suggested earlier)

excel calc = 0.999992596 that Steven Drew won't get injured 3 times in 27 plate appearances.


(1 - .999992596) * 100 = 0.00074039999 percent probability of event (i.e., injured 3 times in 27 plate appearances) occurring

Odds = 1000000: 7.4
or, expressed another way....
Odds = 135100: 1

The odds of Stephen Drew getting injured in exactly 3 of 27 plate appearances as compared to the expected result of 1 of 216 plate appearances is 135,100: 1

So, if you fill University of Michigan football stadium and basketball arena with Strat-o-matic players and they all play three games per evening (assuming server is working and they all have the game on their laptop), after several weeks (allowing for player to return from injury), someone is expected to go, "What is going on? How could one of my players be injured three times in the last 27 games?"

I can tell you've never tried to use WiFi at UM Stadium

Interesting tread, but no-one has taken into account how many games he is expected to miss the first two injuries, which should be an average of 4 games per injury (3.5 games + half the game he got injured in on average), so instead of 27, maybe it is 19 games played.

Interesting tread, but no-one has taken into account how many games he is expected to miss the first two injuries, which should be an average of 4 games per injury (3.5 games + half the game he got injured in on average), so instead of 27, maybe it is 19 games played.

It's not about games played but rather plate appearances.

Interesting tread, but no-one has taken into account how many games he is expected to miss the first two injuries, which should be an average of 4 games per injury (3.5 games + half the game he got injured in on average), so instead of 27, maybe it is 19 games played.

It was stated Steven Drew was injured 3 times in 27 plate appearances, not games. The binomial distribution calculation, then, does not care how many games it took him to get the 27 plate appearances.

If he's out four games per injury rather than, say, 2 games per injury, that impacts the frequency of how often one of the regular 75 (or whatever number you want to use) Strat-o-matic players would observe a similar event, but, it doesn't affect the 3800:1 odds of the event happening to someone who has a player that has accumulated 27 plate appearances during the observation period.

Expect, on the average, one of the 75 regularly-playing SOM managers to have this happen to somebody on their roster once every 26 or 52 weeks or so, depending on their frequency of league play.

yes--I miss read it as games instead of plate appearances

I smell a rat. Something's wrong, and not just in this league.

I'd like to get a bunch of players together and we all go through our teams, and see what % of the teams that we paid for made the playoffs vs. freebie teams from prior Finals appearances.

Without fail, the teams I pay for usually win. Without fail, the teams I get as freebies lose. Over and over, again and again, and in the strangest yet most repetitive ways: Guys with "1" injury ratings missing 10+ games more than they did IRL. BHPRs against my pitchers running 10% higher than BPHRs my guys hit. Ace pitchers going on massive losing streaks: 31 straight games [combined].

Like I said, I smell a rat. Remember when there was that huge exodus of players a couple years back, guys who were saying that things were often fixed? I'd love to find one of those guys IRL and talk to him. I believe all the threads on these boards about the exodus were deleted, but I could be wrong.

tws

I smell a rat. Something's wrong, and not just in this league.

I'd like to get a bunch of players together and we all go through our teams, and see what % of the teams that we paid for made the playoffs vs. freebie teams from prior Finals appearances.

Without fail, the teams I pay for usually win. Without fail, the teams I get as freebies lose. Over and over, again and again, and in the strangest yet most repetitive ways: Guys with "1" injury ratings missing 10+ games more than they did IRL. BHPRs against my pitchers running 10% higher than BPHRs my guys hit. Ace pitchers going on massive losing streaks: 31 straight games [combined].

Like I said, I smell a rat. Remember when there was that huge exodus of players a couple years back, guys who were saying that things were often fixed? I'd love to find one of those guys IRL and talk to him. I believe all the threads on these boards about the exodus were deleted, but I could be wrong.

tws

Sorry Tom, but this is really a half-baked conspiracy theory in my view. There's no money in it for Strat. Someone is going to win the credits, what do they care who it is? And they'd have to pay someone to do the 'fixing', which is ridiculous.

You guys can keep spending your time and energy on conspiracy theories, I'll focus on building better teams.

I smell a rat. Something's wrong, and not just in this league.

I'd like to get a bunch of players together and we all go through our teams, and see what % of the teams that we paid for made the playoffs vs. freebie teams from prior Finals appearances.

Without fail, the teams I pay for usually win. Without fail, the teams I get as freebies lose. Over and over, again and again, and in the strangest yet most repetitive ways: Guys with "1" injury ratings missing 10+ games more than they did IRL. BHPRs against my pitchers running 10% higher than BPHRs my guys hit. Ace pitchers going on massive losing streaks: 31 straight games [combined].

Like I said, I smell a rat. Remember when there was that huge exodus of players a couple years back, guys who were saying that things were often fixed? I'd love to find one of those guys IRL and talk to him. I believe all the threads on these boards about the exodus were deleted, but I could be wrong.

tws

Sorry Tom, but this is really a half-baked conspiracy theory in my view. There's no money in it for Strat. Someone is going to win the credits, what do they care who it is? And they'd have to pay someone to do the 'fixing', which is ridiculous.

You guys can keep spending your time and energy on conspiracy theories, I'll focus on building better teams.

Exactly.

To be clear, this thread was never about a conspiracy theory (that's covered in many different threads), my thread is about whether or not there are hidden things going on within the game engine that we are not aware of but should be.

Such as hidden injury rolls/probabilities.

And what prompted it was the ridiculous 3 injuries in 27 plate appearances for Drew.