Magic Teams

As we near the end of the 2017 card set season and begin looking forward to the 2018 player set in April, I thought I’d throw this out there to help fight back against the There’s Nothing New Under the Sun doldrums that the boards typically enter this time of year.

Back in mid-July, I put together this fairly productive team which lost the Finals:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1491486

Imagine my surprise when I saw this team again in September being managed by someone else:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1496919

As it turned out, mcsoupy had been running an experiment on his own teams. Does replicating an outstanding team result in equal success against 11 different opponents? His results on five previous tries showed that no, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Having exhausted his own teams, he turned to my team shown above.

The results were that this team, like mine, made it to the Finals (but ultimately lost).

In November, and in a coincidence of near hilarity, I ALMOST tried to repeat the repeat, but succumbed to my usual short attention span and moved on to something else, when mcsoupy closed out the league with a three-peat:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1501079

It’s not quite done yet, but there I am once again trailing my own July brainstorm of high groundball A pitchers, this time in the SAME division.

All three teams have +100 pythags and I’m asking myself: so, is this a magic team of some sort?

As for me personally, I usually have more ideas than teams, and so I rarely try to copy my own teams just to see what happens. I do realize that other managers often field very similar (not necessarily identical) teams. So I wonder, do you come up with a core and try and tweak the details in order to find success? What results do you experience trying to do this?

What are your thoughts on “Magic Teams”?

I call dibs for the next autoleague!

Wait til you find out there’s more coming! Competing Magic Teams!!

Don't look to me.

2017 has been my worst year... ever. by far my worst winning % and every team dies a dog's death.

Ok, some thoughts on this team. It rates very well: 2502. The average in my Live Draft Leagues is around 2350. It's not off the charts in terms of rating, but a team you would expect to make the playoffs.

Offensively a below average team, especially v RHP and very susceptible to hard RHP as there are only 2 LHB on the team! Very, very good O v LHP however (especially the team with Baez instead of Pedroia).

Not a ton of sbs, but six guys have to be held so that will help some.

Very injury prone so you're going to have to get lucky. Having Baez makes it a bit better.

Pitching isn't all that great on its own, BUT the D moves the overall impact on the other team's offense into the top tier of a league.

So, in summary, I don't see anything particularly "magic" about this team. It's a good pitching and D team that's susceptible to hard RH starters and injuries. I'm sure it turned a TON of double plays, but I don't have access to that data. Looking at these three teams I would suggest that the offense over performed for each one, but I didn't look at the opponents nor their parks so that could change things a bit.

Just one guy's opinion.

Thx Joe!

I’ll push back a little:

746, 767, and on pace for 800 runs scored in a pitchers park does not strike me as lacking in offense, although I completely agree that it’s the pitching and defense that makes this engine run.

Double plays: 206 (+80 net), 208 (+85 net), and the last team is exactly on this same pace.

I’m a little skeptical regarding team “ratings”. You would have to wonder why anyone would not field a 3000 point team every time, knowing that what should logically follow is a repeat stellar performance. Mcsoupy had five +100 to 200 run pythag teams that failed to repeat their success. But then, I always try and maximize my own ratings to some extent, yet some teams outperform and some underperform. Are the dice so fickle that a championship team can actually be a mediocre team and vice versa?

That’s why this Magic Team struck me as interesting. Three for three, though a small sample, seems a bit better than just lucky dice. I’m kind of trying to figure out why, but in the end there will be probably no sure answer, so it’s more of an exercise of the imagination.

I’ll be posting another group in the hitters park category as the thread moves along...one magic team is hardly enough!

Hell of a team! Couple of thoughts
18 and 10 I hardly consider a pitchers park , when the STRAT average park is 8 singles 10 HR (at least that was what it was when the 1987 cards first came out, the first year of ballpark effects)

I have been moaning all year about how bad the pitchers are performing in this card set. Maybe I've been undervaluing defense

I see what you’re saying there - just for minor clarification, I guess what I’m verbally sorting is banger and non-banger parks. If it’s 10 HR or less, I call that a pitchers park. But I completely concede that Globe Life and Fenway can be called “hitters” parks because of the singles. I guess semantically I’ve always just equated HRs to “Hitters” and batting avg hitters to small ball or “Pitchers”.

Thx Joe!

I’ll push back a little:

746, 767, and on pace for 800 runs scored in a pitchers park does not strike me as lacking in offense, although I completely agree that it’s the pitching and defense that makes this engine run.

Well, what I said was the offense over performed and I wouldn't expect it to score that many runs especially v RHP. The offense is carrying 3 hitters < .325 OB v RHP, two guys who are weak and only a couple of hitters with a lot of hits. Now, it's not a horrible O v rhp, you have good TBs and pretty good natural HRs, and very good clutch. Just would expect you to be in the lower third in RS. But, again, I didn't look at your competition or parks. I'm guessing you didn't see a lot of hard RHSP because you're not set up to handle that. I would also bet you have been lucky with injuries. OTOH, you CRUSH lhp

Double plays: 206 (+80 net), 208 (+85 net), and the last team is exactly on this same pace.

I’m a little skeptical regarding team “ratings”. You would have to wonder why anyone would not field a 3000 point team every time, knowing that what should logically follow is a repeat stellar performance. Mcsoupy had five +100 to 200 run pythag teams that failed to repeat their success. But then, I always try and maximize my own ratings to some extent, yet some teams outperform and some underperform. Are the dice so fickle that a championship team can actually be a mediocre team and vice versa?

Well, sure, if you can come up with a 3000 point team AND get the players I'm sure it would be quite good. Not sure you can do much better than 2700 and stay under the cap. I didn't try to do that too much this year so I'm not sure. As you point out, it's a dice game so you can only give yourself the best shot you can.

That’s why this Magic Team struck me as interesting. Three for three, though a small sample, seems a bit better than just lucky dice. I’m kind of trying to figure out why, but in the end there will be probably no sure answer, so it’s more of an exercise of the imagination.

My guess? Well, as I said, you probably didn't face a lot of hard RHSP. Your D had good timing. Not sure what the competition was. I think your natural HRs played well in your park. You had quite a few 2b and 3b. You didn't face a ton of LHSP so that's not a reason. Your O with Dyson instead of Marte should be much worse too.

I’ll be posting another group in the hitters park category as the thread moves along...one magic team is hardly enough!

Don't have too much to add, I don't see any magic here. An outstanding D team with OK offense and OK pitching. Seen teams like this before some do well, some don't. My experience with really good Defensive teams is that they are subject to more variability than more balanced teams. with the X-Chart it's all about timing IMHO.

That’s interesting and you’re giving me a lot of food for thought...

This started with mcsoupy trying to see if high performing teams could give a repeat performance. He was quite surprised to discover that no, by and large they DO NOT.

If I remember correctly, he could get only two teams to repeat: mine listed here, and another one he did. The one listed here (mine), is on its way to three consecutive playoffs now. Lucky three consecutive times?

Joe, you yourself said that with the variability you would expect, there’s nothing to see here. Except for the fact that there IS something to see: the same team outperforming not 10, not 20, but 30+ other teams! Science? Luck? The fact that there really appears to be nothing particularly special to point to leads me to conclude there must be some sleight of hand here...

It must be magic!