Magic Teams

I do kind of believe in Magic teams in the context here.


Most 20XX seasons I have played there does seem to be a certain type/mix of team that dominates that year. It can be different at other salaries but 80M is probably 90%+ of leagues. Individual leagues/parks can effect numbers, but over several leagues I usually see trends that hold up. At least I think I do. I wish I good see all the leagues I'm not in, especially early in a given season.

That’s interesting and you’re giving me a lot of food for thought...

This started with mcsoupy trying to see if high performing teams could give a repeat performance. He was quite surprised to discover that no, by and large they DO NOT.

If I remember correctly, he could get only two teams to repeat: mine listed here, and another one he did. The one listed here (mine), is on its way to three consecutive playoffs now. Lucky three consecutive times?

Joe, you yourself said that with the variability you would expect, there’s nothing to see here. Except for the fact that there IS something to see: the same team outperforming not 10, not 20, but 30+ other teams! Science? Luck? The fact that there really appears to be nothing particularly special to point to leads me to conclude there must be some sleight of hand here...

It must be magic!

So I’m not clear about what you’re referencing to compile a 2300, 2700, 3000, etc rating. Joe’s rating system?

Like you say, it’s a small sample size, but for arguments sake, let’s say it continues to be a “magic” team. That would tell me whatever elements are built into the rating system need to be tweaked. The bigger the sample size gets, the less you can place the success with luck of the dice.

Always great to read your takes and experiments JPav! Wish I had more successful teams with this set to try to replicate myself!

Key,

I don’t use Joe’s rating system, but he was kind enough to run his analysis on my team. I used 3000 as a round pie in the sky number because I don’t recall what the exact number for top teams would be. Joe’s system gives him a framework to sort teams based on the strengths and weaknesses he has observed with his system over time. Obviously he can explain it much better than me.

My point regarding “ratings” is that I would rarely put together a team that intentionally (or not) is suboptimal. In other words, I only try to build “3000 point teams” (that the system only goes to to some lesser number isn’t the point). I always try and field the best team possible within the framework of what I’m trying to do with any particular team (gbA pitchers, as is the example here, for instance).

I think milleram is on to what I’m trying to express here. The word “magic” is obviously a bit tongue in cheek.

To simplify:

Magic team = any one team that is successful in two or more leagues (allowing for a few missed players here and there).

If you have tried to field the exact same team in the exact same park twice, please post your results.

The larger question that is being somewhat ignored is that if very good teams usually fail to repeat their performance, why do you think that would be? Is it fickle dice? Luck? Ballparks and competition? All of the above? And if you somehow overcome “all of the above” why would THAT be? Skill? Luck? Salary construction? Defense? Other intangibles? Magic?

FWIW, here are some basic traits of this team:

$32 mil pitching, $48 mil hitting

Pitching: $21.89 SP, $10.69 RP, $32.58 total, tilted to very high gbA.

Salary construction: 9-6-6, 5-4-4, 3-3-2, well suited to Globe Life.

Defense: All 1s, very strong arms.

1st Team Results: 1st in pitching (by ERA);1952 def assists vs. league avg of 1633; only 38 SB against with 22 OCS (opponent caught stealing); a boatload of net double plays.

2nd Team Results: 1st in pitching (by ERA);1925 def assists vs. league avg of 1611; only 32 SB against with 11 OCS (opponent caught stealing); a boatload of net double plays.

Joe said, “My experience with really good Defensive teams is that they are subject to more variability than more balanced teams. with the X-Chart it's all about timing IMHO.”

I’m wondering if this analysis could actually go the OPPOSITE way. The pitching and defense replicated itself almost exactly. Maybe it’s the variability of the batting and pitching cards that are more prone to the whims of HAL, which might also explain why it is difficult for even very good teams to repeat...

Thanks, I agree with your assessment. I find when I build a team I think is great, I’m usually focused on offensive output/potential the most....and am either rewarded with a great season or shocked at my “underperformance”. But when my primary focus is pitching/defense, with the offense as a complement, I get more reliable results.

But of course I more often than not get caught up in the sexy run-producing teams, much to my demise...lol

I wish I could see all the leagues I'm not in, especially early in a given season.

A New Years resolution for you milleram. When the games begin in March visit this page a few times a week and make note of the 20XX leagues forming. Write down the league I.D.’s and plug them into the end of this URL: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/xxxxxx

If you have tried to field the exact same team in the exact same park twice, please post your results.

I mainly play keeper leagues but will play Autoleagues if some inspiration comes my way. In the 2015 season that came from MarcPelletier who made known his player ratings for that year.

Since he’s forgotten more than I’ll ever know about Strat I figured I’d follow his advice and put a team together.
And another…..and another…. Marcus provided the incentive so I incorporated one of his pseudonyms (luckyman) into my team names:

Lucky Knucklers - lost Finals
Lucky Knucklers2 - lost Semi’s
Lucky Knucklers 3 - Champs
Lucky Knucklers 4 – lost Finals

4 teams. 4 credits. Magic? “Influencing the course of events by using mysterious or supernatural forces?” Definitely. Marcus has Strat skills that are beyond the understanding of most of us. Use your resources. I did.

When you post the hitters parks teams I’m ready to give a shout out to another long forgotten, and mostly unknown, wizard.

keeper leagues with two seasons tell me that luck (randomness) plays a big role in strat....the changing of divisions and who you face in the next series matters....(I had a 117 win team that destroyed other people's bull pens so they tended to do poorly in the opening game of the next series as well)....
one season
Scherzer, Max R S7* 27 8 3.07 .98
other season
Scherzer, Max R S7* 17 6 2.95 1.05

My offense was actually better in the season Scherzer won 17....

Don't have time to comment fully, but a few thoughts.

- You can also pick up the league number by opening a team, going to a box score for that team and grabbing the league from that. So, for the "Lucky Knucklers" their first game link is: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/432179/6 In this case 432179 is the league number and 6 is the game number.
- I'll see if I can get some time to do a rating/analysis on these teams.
- Having playing FTF for years, I can tell you that the X-Chart impact is hugely variable. For example, getting that 1-2 single on a 2 at SS with the bases loaded versus with 2 on and no out is a big difference.
- Injuries are also a huge variable.
- Given that this team is dependent on both would tell me you were fortunate three times. Especially since I wouldn't say that the bench is particularly talented.

More later if I get time.

Palmtana:

Your pitching and defense held steady while your offense varied by up to 100 runs!

Here’s an interesting thing I found for me, personally, regarding Marc’s ratings. In 2015, I happened to use a lot of players Marc liked on my own teams. However, when I tried to do a “super team”, that is, maximizing WAR to its fullest by trying to out-lucky luckyman, the team was terribly unsuccessful. I’m convinced HAL very much does not like the Too Much of a Good Thing thing.

These threads are how we can learn a lot from each other, but in the end you should do what Arnold Palmer said:

“Swing your swing.”

(And no it’s not lost on me that we’re actually doing the exact opposite of that in this thread! )