Pythagoras be damned

I have a team that is making the Pythagorean wins hypothesis look silly. After Friday night, it was 39-18 with 364 runs for and 308 against. That's a Pythagorean win percentage of .583. The actual winning percentage was .684, a difference of 101 points.

Then Saturday night it hosted the third place team in its division, and outscored it 18-11 while sweeping the series. Now the win percentages are .589 and .700, a difference of 111 points.

Team is here: https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1503767

Has anybody else had teams that so blithely ignored Pythagoras, for better or for worse?

In general my winning teams over perform ,rarely do they exceed + 70 in run differential and project to lower winning PCT. then achieved. Those teams usually win many more one run games than the league avg. and are near the top in league pitching stats and near the bottom in runs scored. I always marvel at those teams that finish a season at 125-200 plus in runs scored , I just don't build teams that do that. Bill

Kind of, I just had a team knocked out of the playoffs by a team that according to pythagorean records I should have been 13 games better than. Does that count?

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/438450

Good example, Rich.

How about this crazy competitive 12-team league where the top three run diff teams missed the playoffs: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/426035

And look who won the championship!

ROFL - another team where I have no idea why it won. Well, that's not actually true - that team won as long as I didn't have to go to the pen. That was a sort of Bruce Foster wannabe team. That was a sort of warmup league for the 2015 Barnstormers for me. I didn't go with that type of team in the tournament, though.

I'm not great with the links, but if you want to see some poor examples at the worst possible time go check out my League #5 and League #6 teams on the tour this past season.

+168 run differential Expected W/L 94-68, Actual 81-81.
+115 run differential Expected W/L 91-71 Actual 78-84.

Back to back teams, exact same results.

Anyone want to explain the theory to a Rookie? All theories appreciated.

my runs squared divided by (my runs squared + my runs allowed squared) = my expected winning percentage. Dates back to early work by Bill James.