milleram wrote:The Brach hit made up for the 5 run 2nd inning vs Scherzer--talking of odds, 2 singles in a row off SSX or 2BX, both 3 fielders I know, but .2 x .2 = .04 any one of which had higher odds of being a DP--so one .65 chance off Brach
Well, my point wasn't really that it was totally luck, just that Brach had a decent chance of getting him out and had the split gone the other way (only .35 I know) he would have gotten the save instead of the BS. I made a big deal about picking up Brach (obviously the *key* move of the offseason
) and I thought it was funny that he got a BS in the first series!
However, since you brought it up
, there was the 1-9 single off of Claudio (left on left) on the previous batter so, combining the two ends up with only a 29% chance of your winning the game. Then throw in the fact that Pham is < 19% likely to get a hit off of his card and less than that off of Brach's card..... Oh, and then there's the 1-5 BPHR that would have ended the game with a flyout had you missed it. So that lowers the odds to 7.3%
Eh, it's a dice game, I expect such shenanigans during the season. <sigh> You just hope they go both ways right? Just like you pointed out with Scherzer.
Of course, the odds of getting those off of Scherzer was certainly lucky, but that was a different game.