NLD 50 Golden Glove Anniversary

I admit I don't understand these numbers at all---I just rate people by OPS (On Base + Slugging) chances per card roll (per 216 roles) and the defense/pitching by OPS allowed (per 216 Roles). If you like yearly ratings (or 648 PA for the average hitter, probably a bit more really, but x3 is easy math), just multiply by 3, but that's not necessary, it's the ratio that matters. How much OPS are you getting minus OPS allowed???

Defense OPS allowed is multiplied by 9 as the average guy hits 3 times for every 27 outs in the field. This is how Baseball Think Factory fielding chart works, it is multiplied by 9 under TB allowed per game.

Milleram,

There is more info on my website, (http://www.angelfire.com/games5/joethej ... ngsFAQ.htm) but here's some info:


This system has evolved over 20 years and there’s over a man-year of effort put into it. It’s not trivial. Initially, it was an OPS type system for hitting and pitching. Then fielding was incorporated.

The newest generation includes situational elements and "chain" assumptions. In other words, it takes into account how many times certain situations occur and then translates the situational probabilities into a rating based on the probability of an outcome on each card. It even takes into account the fact that some players hit into many double plays or that if someone is a good clutch hitter. The system is based on total bases. It looks at how often on average situations will occur and then measures the bases advanced by runners and the batter based on the outcome.

In the system, a point is awarded for each base a runner is advanced. So reaching first on a walk, single, or E1 gets you 1 base. We then looked at average situations occuring to determine how many bases an outcome impacts. For example, a walk will move up any forced runner. We sum up the probability of each situation that advances a runner by the # of runners advancing. For example, a home run will advance all the base runners. As stated before, we assume bases empty occurs 49.2% of the time. A runner on first only occurs 22.2% of the time. A home run will give 3 points for any runner on first so we multiply the probability of this occuring by 3. We do this for all possible situations to come up with the total bases factor that is the heart of the rating system.

One other note, the rating system is slightly different for hitters than pitchers. That's because a hitter's average situational occurance (number of runners on base) is independent of his card. Whereas, a pitcher's average situational occurance is dependent on his card. That is, a batter can't influence the outcome of the preceding batter, but a pitcher influences all outcomes as long as he's on the mound.

Defensive ratings, speed, steal, wild pitch, passed balls, hold and balks are all taken into consideration by the ratings.


How do you do the team ratings?
The method by which I rate a team is pretty general. For example, I take an educated guess at the number of innings pitched by all the relievers. For example, it is quite likely that your best set up guy will get more innings than the other guys including your closer. I also adjust for strong versus weak starting rotations and how many innings they'll get vis-a-vis the relievers.

Overall Rating - Sum of Starting Lineup points –( 9* the average pitcher rating)

The Average pitcher rating is:
(Aver Start rating) * %of anticipated starter innings + (Avg Rel rating)*(1-%of anticipated starter innings)

Start rating is computed by entering the anticipated number of starts for each starter and calculating the average from there.

Relief Ratings take into account how often a RP is expected to pitch. This is to compensate for the way Hal will (over) use setup and closers.

The starting lineup points take into consideration platoons on a 70/30 ratio.

Injury adjusted ratings are used in the calculation. These ratings are adjusted assuming a "standard" backup.

Bench is not considered.


Let me know if you have questions or comments. This is how we get better at rating players/teams!

Brutal stretch for the Heaters and 9 of the games at home. 2 sweeps, one lost series and only one winning series over the past 4.

Getting swept at home against Semper was particularly tough. Buehler against Miley, I have to say I liked my chances.....

Looks like I need to hope for a way-above-standard-backup bench.

Boy, Milleram is on another hot streak with 9 of 11. He's looking like the team to beat in the central for sure. We got lucky to take a series from Jeep last night, but we're going to have to string some games together. Looking like we better start evaluating our WC chances.

Big series (for me) with Milleram tonight. I won't have Yelich for game one or Gamel for the first two. Ugh. C'est le SOM. At least we're at home I guess.

According to your ratings, we should be better, but we keep floating around .500. Probably because our luck is still at a negative number -69. Need to go on a nice 10 game winning streak!

Both sides of 3B platoon hurt simultaneously for a while---that's interesting, if not fun.

Looks like my guys were a bit sensitive about Joe's ratings. I'll take whatever works to get them playing better.

Both sides of 3B platoon hurt simultaneously for a while---that's interesting, if not fun.

Ouch. That always hurts. Maybe that's how we managed to win 2 games from you. Of course, it didn't stop you from winning two last night!

Looks like my guys were a bit sensitive about Joe's ratings. I'll take whatever works to get them playing better

Ha, you never know. Bulletin Board material for sure!

According to your ratings, we should be better, but we keep floating around .500

Don't look now, but you're sitting in the WC spot.....