The insane bargains

From what I've seen, Marc has the best rating system, but it's hidden of course.
Cristano, would Chance and Steinfeldt be two of the "Jet junkers"? Neither have performed for me. Chance ok as leadoff, I guess, but when I try to hit him 5th on a small ball team to take advantage of the clutch , he just doesn't drive in runs.

...Speaking of Lajoie, my rating system values his card roughly at 11.40M, so not as high you do, but still a very good buy . My rating system in the first drafts also estimated him in the 12.50M zone, but I came to realize that a few assumptions I was working with were slightly off-track...

luckyman, are you sure your latest and greatest rating system isn't an exercise in overthinking the problem. Seriously, I started drinking the Nap Lajoie Kool-aid when I saw you produce one dominant team after another always with the Napster! I thus, established a policy of always grabbing Lajoie whenever he's available. Teams with Nap never disappoint.

...Also, remember that the Jet ratings that Riggio is largely parroting have plenty of flaws too.

There are two factors to consider here:
#1: The rating system upon which salaries are based
#2: Building the salary structure

#1: The rating system upon which salaries are based
crissi, I have used Jet's ratings, so I'm quite familiar with them. However, the ratings behind these salaries are my own (I have a system I created years ago which I applied to data pulled off the DiamondDope site). Over the years (going back to 2002) I have consistently gotten better results when I use my own ratings. For ATG8, I've had an overall Win% around .590 since switching from Jet's ratings to my own ratings. That said, my ratings are roughly congruent with Jet's ratings.

Would you care to give us a few examples of "Jet Junkers?" Most likely, those represent places where your ratings are broken!

#2: Building the salary structure
Translating ratings into salaries involves building a curve that optimizes usage of the cards. In my opinion, this is a major issue with ATG8 (apart from the many "mistakes" on individual cards).
- In ATG8, the top cards (say >9.00M) are a bit too cheap.
- Then the broad middle range of salaries (say, down to 3 or 4M) are too expensive.
- Prices drop fast after that, so that cheap cards (i.e., below 3.00M) are almost all great values with certain cards (e.g., '68 Bobby Knoop or '66 Paul Blair) showing up as completely off-the-charts values.

For current ATG8 salaries, the basic formula (at caps of 100M or less) is to capture as many of the extreme value cards as possible, then fill out your roster with cheap players (where values are abundant). While that approach has helped me to dominate league after league, it gets boring. There are many, many players in the broad middle range who I'd like to use, but I never touch because they're just too expensive to use on winning teams.

Pitchers have the same basic issue with salary structure - I.e., too cheap at the top and too expensive in the middle - except (as you, cristano, have proven) MUCH WORSE!

I don't use ratings as I build my teams. I don't play as often as others due to long work hours but I do cherish and try to learn as much as I can from the people I play against. Some has actually given my good ideas when building a value squad. So in retrospect I am a sponge and I cannot stress the value each one of you brings to my teams in the past and my teams going forward. I study your teams to see how and why you built your teams that way and I also try and find usuable guys to help with cap so I can have others. Recently won a title using George van haltren in cf has any of you ever used him with success?

[quote="Bunze0" Recently won a title using George van haltren in cf has any of you ever used him with success?[/quote]

Interesting card. My first thought would be: Where did you bat him in the order?

van Haltren doesn't show up as a great value, but he would be an acceptable choice in a deadball park. If you're looking for CF who don't get injured in that general price range, my ratings like these cards better...

'05 Grady Sizemore (4.12)
'80 Willie Wilson (4.03)
'64 Curt Flood (3.83)
'93 Brett Butler (3.51)
'80 Omar Moreno (1.55)

All of those players are smallball types with the exception of Sizemore who's got some ballpark homers on his card.

Steve hit 8th in my lineup. take these rbi from 8th anyday.
Van Haltren, G. (1900)
L
CF
2(-2)e11
623
46
164
30
5
1
76
49
107
0
20
8
12
AA
1-17
.263
.316
.332
0

Yes, that is acceptable. Good place to hide the negative clutch as well. Nicely done!

I think Riggio is being a bit shady here, in listing his "INSANE BARGAINS". He has basically listed the insane bargains that he doesn't like. And then tacked on Lajoie, DHenderson, Hunter, Wagner, you know, the steals that everyone already knows are steals. Let's dig a bit deeper. If we investigate Riggio's top 15 teams by wins, they average an astounding 105 wins!!!!!! I've never seen such a good result!!! But wait, the vast majority of these teams ONLY HAVE ZERO OR ONE OF RIGGIO's INSANE STEALS ON THEM. Hmmmmm, that's strange.

On almost every team he has D.Johnson73 playing 2b. A true staple. Why isn't he on the INSANE STEALS list? Shady AF. Then, in his OF, Riggio loves loves loves the T.Harper63 / L.Johnson65 platoon. Loves D.Parker80. Loves B.Allison65. Loves R.Henderson90. Then at SS he always plays W.Wells31. And, at 1B he loves to play J.Morneau06. At 3B, always the G.Nettles84. Loves W.Cooper51 at CA. Loves R.York38 at CA. Loves R.Petrocelli69 at SS when he doesn't get W.Wells. Guess how many of these boys are listed on RIGGIO'S INSANE STEALS? Yes, you guessed it, a big fat ZERO of them. Strange list, don't you think? And then you have E.Combs, who has never been on any of Riggio's teams, that he lists as the steal of the set. Objectively, looks like Riggio is using some misdirection to protect his favourite boys. We could refer to this list as RIGGIOS INSANE SECRET BARGAINS...

Jet Junkers: H.Aaron63 and T.Davis62 are a couple of the bigger POS in the set, and Jet has them as huge steals. Can't think of anyone worse than T.Davis62. But Riggio, you already know that too, as ZERO of your top 35 teams by wins use T.Davis62.

"INSANE VALUE" players are the ones who are good in any park. For example, SS Bobby Wallace is optimized in a pitcher's park, but he's so underpriced, he's still a good deal in Fenway '67. Likewise, you selected CF Torii Hunter (who is optimized in a hitter's park) for a Forbes '57 team - BECAUSE HE'S SO UNDERPRICED IT DOESN'T MATTER!

Comments on some of the players mentioned:

'73 Dave Johnson - Yes, I've used him a lot because I've done a lot of experimenting with Polo Grounds '41. He's crazy good in that kind of park (I think he hit 64 homers for one of my teams), but not so much in other parks

'63 Tommy Harper - Yes, one of my favorite platoons (either at 3B or OF) with Nettles, J.Howell, L.Johnson, and T.Gainey. (BTW, '65 Lou Johnson is one of the unknown steals in the set. I think I'm the only manager that uses him!)

'62 Tommy Davis - he was my leftfielder on my best team (by pythagorean wins). I'd use him more except he's difficult to get because everyone else tries to get him. The other issue is that I do not draft purely by value - replacement level is also key. There are a variety of alternatives for leftfield, however...

'31 Willie Wells - my favorite card in the entire set. Although his value doesnt show up as off-the-charts, he's among the best value shortstops. He does everything well + never gets hurt at the most difficult position to replace.

'06 Justin Morneau - Not an insane value. I have a very specific use case for Morneau - lefty batter, not too expensive, with 8 ballpark homers on each side of his card, and good value relative to position ('92 Fred McGriff also meets this criteria). He shows up on a few of my teams where I'm in Polo Grounds and have invested heavily in starting pitching.

'65 Bob Allison, '90 Ricky Henderson - Yes, both are awesome values. Rickey is one of the best value expensive cards and Allison adds a bonus of positional flexibility.

'80 Dave Parker - simply an example of how salary scale drops off around 3.00-4.00M. I needed an inexpensive lefty-hitting OF to complete my lineup. My usual go-to guy is '03 Danny Green, but in this particular instance, Parker was the best fit.

'51 Walker Cooper, '38 Rudy York - I like these cards, but you're noticing them because you've only looked at a few team that are in hitter's parks. The catcher I use over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again is '59 Smoky Burgess.

'63 Hank Aaron - Added to the set more recently, so no, he doesn't show up on my older teams. Awesome card - sometimes my #1 overall pick on draft list. '63 Aaron shows up on practically every non-Forbes team I've built in the past 6-9 months.

'27 Earle Combs - True, I rarely use him. Super value rated, but it's kind of a weird card - a leadoff type without super-high OBP. He's a good deadball power hitter (lots of doubles & triples), but horrendous clutch makes one reluctant to use him as a middle-of-the-order hitter. I'll tolerate the +2/+3 arm for pure OBP leadoff types like '58 Ashburn or '94 Hamilton, but Combs, not so much. I probably should use him more often.