How much has John Beckwith helped/hurt this team?

To maximize my offense in a 150M cap league, I decided to play John Beckwith at catcher (C-5e(+2)e13, T-16(pb-6)).

The Good: Beckwith's OPS is 1.050 (7th highest in the league)
The Bad: He's allowed 130 stolen bases (at a 76% success rate)
The Ugly: 17 passed balls and 18 throwing errors

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/fielding/1532179

I'm playing in Hilltop Park '11 and scoring 6 1/2 run a game, so the calculation was that I could afford to let opposing teams run the bases at will. Not sure how that's worked out...?

I've been tempted to try that many times, but could never pull the trigger. Nice job!

Here's a team of mine at same number of games:

https://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/t ... ng/1532796

Outside of the errors, PB's and steals, there's also the X-Chart difference. He's allowed about 12 more men to reach base as well. And that's not a good fielding team for me. A real catcher would make a huge difference IMHO.

And if I were playing one of my speed teams in your league I'd have 10+ stolen bases per game against him. I'm amazed your oppenents age taking bigger advantage of it.

...Outside of the errors, PB's and steals, there's also the X-Chart difference. He's allowed about 12 more men to reach base as well.

Rich, is the point that Beckwith has convereted only 33 of 54 X-Chart chance (i.e., -21)? ...are those all baserunners? ...or are some of those chances just moving runners around the bases?

To compare the teams, your catchers (Dooin & Wathan) have converted 45 of 58 X-Chart chance (i.e., -13) while my catchers (Beckwith, Ellis, Tamargo) have converted 43 of 67 chances (-24). Your catchers are about average defensively, (2e10 & 3e7), so the difference between average and truly bad (my guys ) is about 11 baserunners on X-Charts alone.

FWIW, smallball is not a super-popular strategy in high-cap leagues. But you are right, at a lower cap there would likely be teams specifically designed to steal bases - and they'd kill me!

Not an X-Chart expert but those are outs that were NOT converted. Not 100% certain if it means a hit.

But yeah, even with that offense, I can't tolerate all those SB's, 17 PB's and 28 Errors on top of the X-Chart issues.

Not an X-Chart expert but those are outs that were NOT converted. Not 100% certain if it means a hit.

Yeah, some are "Error On Foul Popup" which does not end up as an out, but not a hit either (simply, the hitter has another chance). Of course, giving an extra chance in a 150M environment costs more than in a low scoring environment. At 6 runs per game per team, each missed out costs 0.22 runs.

Here is my best guess :
Beckwith is 33 out of 54 X-opportunities:
(10 errors)
* 7 one-base error (perhaps one was 2-based error, perhaps one single plus one-based error)= 7*0.40 = 2.8 runs
* 3 dropped fouled balls: 3 * 0.22 runs = 0.7 runs
(9 other miscues)
* 2 singles: 2*0.47 runs = 0.9 runs
* 6 passed balls : 6 pb * 0.30 = 1.8 runs
* 1 wild pitch: 1 wp * 0.30 = 0.3 run
* 33 outs: 33 * 0.11 = -(3.6) runs

X-chart review: 4.9 runs

11 extra passed balls: 11*0.3 = 3.3 runs
18 throws in the field: 18 * 0.3 = 5.4 runs
3.3 + 5.4 = 8.7 runs

With regards to stolen bases, since your overall rotation has roughly a zero hold, I would assume that a -2 arm would allow 60 sb 30 cs. With this comparison, given that, under Beckwith watch, the team had 130 sb 40 cs, so:

70 sb: 70*0.25= 17.5 runs
10 cs: 10*0.5 = -5 runs
17.5 - 5 = 12.5 runs

Overall: 4.9 + 8.7 + 12.5 = 26.1 runs allowed compared to a 1e0(-2).

What we don't know is how Beckwith's 5-range affects the game with regards to the CATCHER BLOCKING plate rule. SOM management said a few times back in the days that the Blocking plate rule does apply in 20XX, but I always had doubts that it did. In any case, my doubts are even greater with ATG: I don't have any sign that that it does apply. If the rule were to be followed, Beckwith's defense would cost your team 20 runs only with consequences of allowing runners to score.

If the blocking rule doesn't apply, I would say, based on his offensive performance (96.4 runs created), he managed pretty good with a overall 70.3 positive runs, or 7.0 WAR. Not too bad after 129 games, for a projected 8.8 WAR for a whole season.

At 50.3 runs though, if the blocking rule applies, Beckwith would not be a good buy.

Thanks Marc. I knew I could trust you to quantify the question.

Fantastic analysis! Thanks!

And proof positive that I am both right and wrong at the same time.

Fantastic analysis! Thanks!

And proof positive that I am both right and wrong at the same time.

Schroedinger's Manager.

Schroedinger's Manager.