ATG9 Salaries - the Egregiously Overpriced Cards

MARC--
Palmer was a dominant RH stud no matter who you put behind him.

Then why aren't the Whitey Ford cards similarly degraded despite him having Richardson, Clete Boyer, Mickey Mantle in the field ---all great defensive players---that theory just doesn't hold up.

I am not an Orioles fan what so ever, but the Palmer thing is an example of what is wrong. Saying that specific pitchers should have mediocre cards because they had great defenses behind them, is not consistent with other pitchers in the set, and just means that those cards don't get used.

Then why aren't the Whitey Ford cards similarly degraded despite him having Richardson, Clete Boyer, Mickey Mantle in the field ---all great defensive players---that theory just doesn't hold up.

Well, in 1956, the SOM management didn't think the Yankees defenders were great. Bias against Yankees players?

In 1956, Jerry Coleman was splitting time at ss with McDougald, and he was rated (at least in ATG) as a ss-4. Range at 2b was 2 at best (Richardson was not playing). Mantle (deservedly or not) was rated cf-2. This explains why Ford has a nice 6.70M card despite a whip of 1.20.

In 1975, the year Palmer had his best WHIP at 1.03, the Orioles won 4 gold gloves 1975: Brooks Robinson (3b) – Paul Blair (of) – Bobby Grich (2b) – Mark Belanger (ss). So SOM had no other choice than put the hits on Palmer's card as they couldn't come from the defensive charts. That's why he got only a 6.50M salary despite his wonderful 1.03 WHIP.

If I remove hits from Palmer's card to reflect the same defensive ratings as the 1956 Yankees, his salary would jump to 7.60M (in my own estimation). And if I further do a stadium adjustment (applying the hit ratings of Yankees Stadium to Memorial Stadium), I would probably see a jump of Palmer's salary into the 8M-8.5M zone (some homeruns would be removed from his card and applied to the ballpark rolls instead). Ford best card is at 7.78M.

It's mathematical. Nothing against Palmer, I'm pretty sure.

So Marc, check out the 1971 Tom Seaver card and then match it up with baseball reference. Pretty sure you will end up scratching your head about Seaver's three ballpark homers vs. righties.

Marc---thanks for the heads up, makes more sense now.
what I do know is that I have never seen anyone use any of his cards, same with players like Robin Roberts etc

what I do know is that I have never seen anyone use any of his cards, same with players like Robin Roberts etc

Yeah, I totally agree with you it's disappointing to not see more of these cards. That's why I love so much theme league like yearly teams (1970 Baltimore Orioles) or era teams (exp- Baltimore Orioles) where it makes sense to use stars like Palmer or Roberts.

This said, within the 6M-7M zone, among star pitchers with stamina of S8 or more, Palmer's card doesn't look bad at all if you need a cheaper starter to fulfill the "4-Ace strategy".

Code: Select all

NAME   SALARY   mysal   BAL   ERA
S9   ST   Tannehill, Jesse____   6,55   6,71   0,16   5,24
S9   ST   Spahn, Warren_______   6,09   6,03   -0,06   5,37
S9   ST   Taylor, Jack________   6,39   6,33   -0,06   5,28
S8   ST   Burdette, Lew_______   6,94   6,87   -0,07   5,04
S9   ST   Harder, Mel_________   6,05   5,95   -0,10   5,48
S9   ST   Lemon, Bob__________   6,94   6,81   -0,13   5,14
S9   ST   Kremer, Ray_________   6,66   6,53   -0,13   5,16
S9   ST   McLain, Denny_______   6,19   6,00   -0,19   5,32
S9   ST   Foster, Big Bill____   6,74   6,52   -0,22   5,25
S9   ST   Palmer, Jim_________   6,50   6,28   -0,22   5,29
S9   ST   Sowders, Bill_______   6,37   6,09   -0,28   5,31
S9   ST   Walters, Bucky______   6,04   5,71   -0,33   5,50
S9   ST   Gromek, Steve_______   6,54   6,19   -0,35   5,34
S8   ST   Saberhagen, Bret____   6,59   6,22   -0,37   5,29
( 49 others ...)
S8   ST   Gooden, Dwight______   6,28   5,28   -1,00   5,46
S8   ST   Gubicza, Mark_______   6,78   5,76   -1,02   5,19
S8   ST   Rogan, Bullet Joe___   6,33   5,27   -1,06   5,50
S8   ST   Willett, Ed_________   6,56   5,41   -1,15   5,41

Tannehill is the top value within these parameters, and he is indeed seen much more often than Palmer. But Palmer's expected ERA of 5.29 in 100M leagues is not super attractive either.

So Marc, check out the 1971 Tom Seaver card and then match it up with baseball reference. Pretty sure you will end up scratching your head about Seaver's three ballpark homers vs. righties.

Seaver had a large HR split in real-life 1971, 5 HR vs lh and 13 HR vs rh

And the stadium rating for Shea had the inverted split in 1971: 19-4.

So doing the maths for the expected homeruns, it doesn't look far remove from reality.

But if you don't need the stamina, Palmer is indeed a middle of the road card in the 6M-7M zone.

The Star pitchers set in the 6M-7M zone, by expected ERA in a 100M (low ballpark homeruns):

Code: Select all

[table]
Year...Arm..Stam..Star...Name.................SAL...my SAL...bal....expected ERA
1995   R   S7   ST   Mussina, Mike_______   6,29   6,63   0,34   4,88
1994   R   S7   ST   Cone, David_________   6,84   6,03   -0,81   4,97
1990   R   S7   ST   Martinez, Dennis____   6,87   6,17   -0,70   5,00
1954   R   S8   ST   Burdette, Lew_______   6,94   6,87   -0,07   5,04
1977   L   S7   ST   Candelaria, John____   6,60   6,03   -0,57   5,04
2012   L   S7   ST   Price, David________   6,92   5,91   -1,01   5,05
1909   R   S7   ST   Maddox, Nick________   6,95   6,02   -0,93   5,06
1981   R   S7   ST   Ryan, Nolan_________   7,00   5,35   -1,65   5,08
2006   L   S7   ST   Santana, Johan______   6,43   5,79   -0,64   5,08
2005   R   S7   ST   Carpenter, Chris____   6,55   5,93   -0,62   5,08
1970   L   S9   ST   McDowell, Sam_______   6,90   6,22   -0,68   5,11
1982   R   S8   ST   Niekro, Joe_________   6,88   5,93   -0,95   5,13
1972   L   S7   ST   Matlack, Jon________   6,73   5,58   -1,15   5,13
1954   R   S9   ST   Lemon, Bob__________   6,94   6,81   -0,13   5,14
2001   R   S7   ST   Mussina, Mike_______   6,80   5,72   -1,08   5,14
1975   L   S7   ST   Matlack, Jon________   6,55   5,66   -0,89   5,15
1927   R   S9   ST   Kremer, Ray_________   6,66   6,53   -0,13   5,16
1946   L   S8   ST   Pollet, Howie_______   6,81   6,26   -0,55   5,17
1992   L   S7   ST   Glavine, Tom________   6,71   5,57   -1,14   5,17
1956   L   S8   ST   Antonelli, Johnny___   6,44   5,86   -0,58   5,17
1969   R   S8   ST   Seaver, Tom_________   6,95   6,16   -0,79   5,18
1939   R   S8   ST   Ruffing, Red________   6,67   6,06   -0,61   5,19
1988   R   S8   ST   Gubicza, Mark_______   6,78   5,76   -1,02   5,19
2010   R   S7   ST   Jimenez, Ubaldo_____   6,69   5,30   -1,39   5,20
1940   R   S8   ST   Passeau, Claude_____   6,89   6,31   -0,58   5,22
1928   R   S8   ST   Grimes, Burleigh____   6,99   6,13   -0,86   5,22
1917   L   S8   ST   Rixey, Eppa_________   6,83   5,91   -0,92   5,23
1900   L   S9   ST   Tannehill, Jesse____   6,55   6,71   0,16   5,24
1988   R   S8   ST   Cone, David_________   6,28   5,42   -0,86   5,24
1969   R   S7   ST   Reed, Ron___________   6,31   5,36   -0,95   5,25
2011   L   S7   ST   Hamels, Cole________   6,54   5,50   -1,04   5,25
NeL   L   S9   ST   Foster, Big Bill____   6,74   6,52   -0,22   5,25
1977   L   S7   ST   Koosman, Jerry______   6,42   5,57   -0,85   5,25
1987   L   S7   ST   Key, Jimmy__________   6,41   5,11   -1,30   5,25
1930   L   S9   ST   Grove, Lefty________   6,84   6,12   -0,72   5,26
1933   L   S8   ST   Brandt, Ed__________   6,55   5,91   -0,64   5,26
1973   R   S9   ST   Ryan, Nolan_________   6,86   6,40   -0,46   5,27
1956   L   S9   ST   Ford, Whitey________   6,70   6,22   -0,48   5,27
1909   R   S8   ST   Mullin, George______   6,77   5,93   -0,84   5,27
1929   R   S8   ST   Lucas, Red__________   6,71   5,96   -0,75   5,28
2008   R   S7   ST   Santana, Ervin______   6,27   5,27   -1,00   5,28
1967   R   S8   ST   Chance, Dean________   6,83   5,97   -0,86   5,28
1900   R   S9   ST   Taylor, Jack________   6,39   6,33   -0,06   5,28
1960   R   S8   ST   Friend, Bob_________   6,60   5,94   -0,66   5,29
2005   L   S7   ST   Willis, Dontrelle___   6,08   5,55   -0,53   5,29
1915   R   S7   ST   Mayer, Erskine______   6,46   5,38   -1,08   5,29
1910   L   S8   ST   Rucker, Nap_________   6,76   5,85   -0,91   5,29
1975   R   S9   ST   Palmer, Jim_________   6,50   6,28   -0,22   5,29
1994   R   S8   ST   Saberhagen, Bret____   6,59   6,22   -0,37   5,29
1927   R   S9   ST   Lucas, Red__________   6,90   6,22   -0,68   5,29
1998   L   S7   ST   Glavine, Tom________   6,06   5,36   -0,70   5,29
1909   R   S8   ST   Willis, Vic_________   6,75   5,88   -0,87   5,30
1964   R   S8   ST   Bunning, Jim________   6,35   5,95   -0,40   5,30
1970   R   S9   ST   Jenkins, Fergie_____   6,84   5,94   -0,90   5,30
1909   L   S7   ST   Leifield, Lefty_____   6,49   5,36   -1,13   5,31
1888   R   S9   ST   Sowders, Bill_______   6,37   6,09   -0,28   5,31
1927   R   S9   ST   Haines, Jesse_______   6,73   6,16   -0,57   5,31
1970   R   S7   ST   Perry, Jim__________   6,34   5,27   -1,07   5,31
1903   L   S8   ST   Weimer, Jake________   6,49   5,83   -0,66   5,32
1969   R   S9   ST   McLain, Denny_______   6,19   6,00   -0,19   5,32
1927   R   S9   ST   Alexander, Pete_____   6,70   6,11   -0,59   5,32
1949   L   S9   ST   Parnell, Mel________   6,40   5,92   -0,48   5,33
NeL   R   S8   ST   Day, Leon___________   6,25   5,82   -0,43   5,33
1971   L   S8   ST   Roberts, Dave_______   6,41   5,88   -0,53   5,34
1967   L   S7   ST   Nye, Rich___________   6,31   5,35   -0,96   5,34
1954   R   S9   ST   Gromek, Steve_______   6,54   6,19   -0,35   5,34
1977   R   S8   ST   Leonard, Dennis_____   6,32   5,46   -0,86   5,35
2012   R   S7   ST   Dickey, R.A.________   6,17   5,17   -1,00   5,36
1984   R   S7   ST   Rhoden, Rick________   6,04   4,83   -1,21   5,36
1957   L   S9   ST   Spahn, Warren_______   6,09   6,03   -0,06   5,37
1944   L   S8   ST   Newhouser, Hal______   6,26   5,54   -0,72   5,37
1977   R   S7   ST   Hooton, Burt________   6,22   5,10   -1,12   5,38
1951   R   S9   ST   Maglie, Sal_________   6,33   5,92   -0,41   5,38
1967   R   S7   ST   Ortega, Phil________   6,12   5,15   -0,97   5,38
1939   L   S8   ST   Gomez, Lefty________   6,16   5,49   -0,67   5,39
1968   R   S9   ST   Jenkins, Fergie_____   6,20   5,63   -0,57   5,39
1965   R   S7   ST   Horlen, Joe_________   6,04   5,03   -1,01   5,39
1940   R   S8   ST   Derringer, Paul_____   6,30   5,55   -0,75   5,39
1903   L   S9   ST   Hahn, Noodles_______   6,46   6,00   -0,46   5,39
1984   R   S8   ST   Sutcliffe, Rick_____   6,32   5,37   -0,95   5,39
1944   R   S8   ST   Trout, Dizzy________   6,25   5,69   -0,56   5,40
1969   R   S8   ST   Hands, Bill_________   6,19   5,47   -0,72   5,40
1946   L   S7   ST   Brecheen, Harry_____   6,16   5,08   -1,08   5,40
1909   R   S8   ST   Willett, Ed_________   6,56   5,41   -1,15   5,41
2006   R   S7   ST   Webb, Brandon_______   7,00   5,21   -1,79   5,41
2010   R   S7   ST   Halladay, Roy_______   6,12   5,02   -1,10   5,42
1906   R   S8   ST   Bernhard, Bill______   6,44   5,51   -0,93   5,42
1915   L   S7   ST   Russell, Reb________   6,17   5,08   -1,09   5,43
1915   R   S7   ST   Adams, Babe_________   6,14   4,93   -1,21   5,43
1912   L   S8   ST   Sallee, Slim________   6,29   5,40   -0,89   5,45
1965   L   S8   ST   Osteen, Claude______   6,01   5,46   -0,55   5,46
NeL   R   S8   ST   Redding, Dick_______   6,04   5,42   -0,62   5,46
1986   R   S8   ST   Gooden, Dwight______   6,28   5,28   -1,00   5,46
1965   L   S8   ST   Veale, Bob__________   6,02   5,14   -0,88   5,47
1934   R   S9   ST   Harder, Mel_________   6,05   5,95   -0,10   5,48
1920   R   S9   ST   Coveleski, Stan_____   6,38   5,88   -0,50   5,50
1927   R   S8   ST   Rogan, Bullet Joe___   6,33   5,27   -1,06   5,50
1941   R   S9   ST   Walters, Bucky______   6,04   5,71   -0,33   5,50
1982   R   S7   ST   Soto, Mario_________   6,81   4,55   -2,26   5,52
1926   R   S8   ST   Mays, Carl__________   6,13   5,33   -0,80   5,53
1957   L   S8   ST   Simmons, Curt_______   6,00   5,32   -0,68   5,53
1963   R   S7   ST   Maloney, Jim________   6,72   4,25   -2,47   5,54
1911   L   S9   ST   Marquard, Rube______   6,01   5,42   -0,59   5,54
1982   L   S9   ST   Valenzuela, Fernando   6,05   5,35   -0,70   5,56
2005   R   S7   ST   Colon, Bartolo______   6,86   4,66   -2,20   5,56
1931   R   S8   ST   Williams, Smokey Joe   6,37   5,10   -1,27   5,58
1911   R   S9   ST   Wood, Joe___________   6,07   5,23   -0,84   5,61

[/table]

I view Palmer's "SOM problem" is that he was consistently very good to excellent year to year, but never had one dominant year (sub 1 WHIP or even less than .5hr/9). For example, his average career whip of 1.18 is almost equal to Guidry's. But Guidry's stats were more volatile.

https://www.lonestarball.com/2011/4/8/2 ... f-all-time

Marc-
thanks for the thorough response, greatly appreciated.
it makes more sense, ---i guess that many of these mid-range starter cards will only see use in theme leagues.
I am baffled by many of Warren Spahn's cards, as the D he had behind him was mediocre to average--Logan was mostly a 3 at SS, Danny O'Connell was a 3, Covington a 4, Adcock a 4, the only 1 was Bruton in CF. But then looking at it, Spahn mostly pitched in County Stadium, which was a pitchers park for sure.

and to Ratioman2--- good point. Spahn suffered from that as well, his excellence (most career wins by a LH pitcher, 7 consecutive seasons of 20+ wins) was very even, with no lights out years, and his value in STRAT is diminished because of it.

STEVEF---very interesting, certainly something to consider.
what is also interesting is that STRAT does not seem to reflect that superb quality of defense.
I have many of Belanger's STRAT cards from the 60's and 70's, only one of them is a 1, they are mostly 2's and some 3's.
in ATG, Blair is a 1 (e5), not even in the top 30 CFs.
Of course Brooks is Brooks...

I did a film with Palmer back in the 90's and he told me a very interesting story about Earl Weaver and Belanger....