Catcher X-Chart Question

I hesitate even asking, because whenever I do this I’m often embarrassed with an obviously easy answer that I should have recognized.

I’m increasingly irritated by the Catcher X-Chart stats.

For instance:

Molina 1(-3)e1 62/73 x-chances (85%)
Ellis 3(+2)e1 55/66 x-chances (83%)
Gomes 2(-2)e5 46/59 x-chances (78%)

What conditions have to be in place for a 1e1 to fail 15% of the time? Why does being a 3e1 get you exactly the same results as a 1e1? How does being a 2 get you less outs than a 3?

This is not a one league thing, this is rampant across leagues, so I would love for someone to explain to me why paying up for a 1 catcher matters at all.

I apologize ahead of time for not knowing what will likely end up being a painfully obvious explanation.

Going from memory, but I think all catchers have three chances (thus 15%) of wild pitch readings based on the pitchers' cards.

Or maybe wild pitch/ passed ball chances, now I seem to remember. With 50% the readings are based on the pitchers' wp and 50% are based on the catchers' pb.

Should there not be some type of space between a 1, a 2 and a 3 still, if wild pitches are all equal?

I guess the defensive rating is just offset by the number of wild pitches. A 3 looks better than a 1 when the pitchers throw fewer wild pitches then.

Catchers actually have two error ratings, the one after the range rating, so 3E1 for example and their T rating which cound be from 1-20 with 1 being the best and 20 the worst. The T rating is not reflected on the X chart but rather on steal attempts but counts towards errors. Not sure this answers or even pertains to your question, but it might be a factor.

JPav,

One of the subtler results from the catchers X chances is whose rating to use when determining a wild pitch. On certain X chances you use the pitchers WP rating and on others you use the catchers pb rating which is usually much lower. My recollection of the chart is that the 1 rated defenders get more of the pb type rolls while bad catchers get the wp rolls. So if your starters have high wp ratings a 1 rated catcher makes a difference. Low wp rated pitchers then the benefit of a 1 vs 4 is significantly less. I will pull the charts tonight and provide the probabilities.

Also a number of the catcher X chances result in nothing happening and the batter remains at the plate. Does the sim first roll the WP result determine a failed X chance but then nothing happens with no runners on base. In this instance you could be credited with a “failed roll” but nothing negative actually happened. This would make the fail rate look higher than the actual wild pitches allowed.

To see this effect you can sim the computer game with guys like Candiotti pitching an entire season to Piazza vs. Pagnozzi and you will see a significant reduction in wild pitches. I am using guys from the 90’s because that is the last time I actually had the PC version of the game

I have to agree with Jpavs observations here---I seldom even pay much attention to a catchers fielding rating other than T rating.--and even then if he is a minus arm rating I will use a T-20 guy.

The reason (I think) for % numbers Jpav listed is passed balls off the xchart--and probably WP off the xchart count as a missed chance too, + PB in general.

A 1 rated catcher often has a higher PB rating than lower rated catchers--Strat takes into account a catchers passed balls off x-chart when figuring PB ratings--it's more common to see a 3 catcher with a PB-0 rating than a 1 catcher for that reason.

I have no idea if PB that do not come off the x-chart count in his stats though--but they probably do.

Wow - thank you for all the great feedback/input guys...MUCH appreciated!