Moneyball Baseball League Chat

I can't imagine the top 25% of all 3rd baseman (starters and reserves) would be above 6.91 million but I hear ya.

then again, if we all have 2 third basemen, that's 24 third basemen. That would be the avg of the top 6 (25% of 24 is 6)....maybe it would be over 6.91. hmmmmmm

I think that's sitting at around 9M if you calculate the average of the top 6 based off 24 primary position 3B being on 40 mans. I made the assumption Donaldson will be drafted eventually.

I think he's have to fall within the 25%/50% in order for his salary to count.

ouch, then signing guys with 5 years service time is gonna suck. but it is a 40-man roster, so I'd guess my estimate of 2 on each team would be off, it would probably be a little more (maybe 28, which would be top 7....not much difference)

wish that had been figured out earlier. 5 year guys suck as that jump from 50% to 25% is killer.

ok.....I was forgetting the arbitration option. You DEFINITELY want to go to arbitration with ALL 5-year guys to avoid the 25% deal.

There would be no reason to give him a 4 year extension before the year starts if you can wait till next December and give it to him then knowing how his 2020 season went would there? I still don't see why we are not doing these decisions prior to this year starting no matter what the player's service time is. Players are signed to contracts before the season starts not after the season based on how they do. Because we're playing a fantasy card game we have to wait till the actual season is over and the cards come out before we get to play the 2020 season. But the contracts we are giving the players for 2020 should be done before the actual season is played. Apparently that's how the 6+ year guys will work, why not everybody? I honestly thought everyone's contract would be done that way.

There would be no reason to give him a 4 year extension before the year starts if you can wait till next December and give it to him then knowing how his 2020 season went would there? I still don't see why we are not doing these decisions prior to this year starting no matter what the player's service time is. Players are signed to contracts before the season starts not after the season based on how they do. Because we're playing a fantasy card game we have to wait till the actual season is over and the cards come out before we get to play the 2020 season. But the contracts we are giving the players for 2020 should be done before the actual season is played. Apparently that's how the 6+ year guys will work, why not everybody? I honestly thought everyone's contract would be done that way.

agree... we should announce immediately after the draft if we will be giving contract extension, releasing player, or going to arbitration. otherwise getting to see how they do in real life makes it a sham. now, obviously if you pick arbitration, the arbitration will not occur until next year when the new cards come out....but you should have to announce it now.

There would be no reason to give him a 4 year extension before the year starts if you can wait till next December and give it to him then knowing how his 2020 season went would there? I still don't see why we are not doing these decisions prior to this year starting no matter what the player's service time is. Players are signed to contracts before the season starts not after the season based on how they do. Because we're playing a fantasy card game we have to wait till the actual season is over and the cards come out before we get to play the 2020 season. But the contracts we are giving the players for 2020 should be done before the actual season is played. Apparently that's how the 6+ year guys will work, why not everybody? I honestly thought everyone's contract would be done that way.

agree... we should announce immediately after the draft if we will be giving contract extension, releasing player, or going to arbitration. otherwise getting to see how they do in real life makes it a sham. now, obviously if you pick arbitration, the arbitration will not occur until next year when the new cards come out....but you should have to announce it now.

Until tonight that's how I thought we were doing it.

We are making those decisions immediately after this draft, and before the games start. Phil's message on page 4 of this thread from March 6 gives an overview of what GM's will need to do after the draft for the players on their roster based on their service time.

Something I can't quite figure out. If you don't offer a player with 3-5 years of service an extension that player goes to arbitration. I've been assuming that you would then be responsible for that player's contract the following season at the arbitrated price. Yet Sec. IX.07 states: CUTTING PLAYERS: Players with under six years of service time can be released during the off-season at any time. Teams are not obligated to the next season’s salary until Opening Day.
So can you cut a player after he has been declared going to arbitration and not be responsible for the salary? Doesn't seem fair to be able to cause you could wait to see how he does in real life in case of a career threatening injury or a terrible season performance wise.

oldmansmith

I think you have to make a choice: 1) go to arbitration, or 2) cut the guy. Can't do both--at least that's my reading of the rule.

Madal

Madal is correct. You need to make a decision about extension, arbitration, or cutting a player before the cards are released. I' don't think I put a deadline in the rules for this decision point, and if I didn't I think we need to reach agreement about that date. The rules do say that the free agency period begins on December 1st and ends the second Friday in February, so it would make sense to make Nov. 30th the last day to sign contract extensions, cut players, or declare arbitration. I also just realized that we will be bidding on free agents before cards are released, thus it is possible that we might be signing unleashed players. We may need to discuss this possibility and how to address it.

Madal I agree about the post on page 4. But this answer from Phil clearly says he thinks we are able to put off making the decisions till Nov. 30 on contract extensions, cut players or declare arbitration. This is what is confusing me. And it all stems from my question about the rule that seems to state that you can drop a player that is scheduled for arbitration at any time during the off season and not be responsible for his contract.

I know this is confusing, and there may be some holes in the rules that will require revision, but here is what we are working with:

Article 1 Section 3: Immediately after the inaugural draft, owning teams are able to, but are not obligated to, sign each eligible draftee to a contract extension as per the CONTRACT RULES established in Article IX below.
(a) Cot’s Baseball contracts will be used for determining a player’s term of service, rounded up, for the purposes of offering contract extensions after the inaugural draft (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... tion/cots/).
(b) Draftees must have three or more years of service time in order to be eligible for a contract extension.
(c) Contract extensions take effect prior to the start of season 1 and count toward the inaugural salary cap.

You need to make to extend or not to extend draftees with 3 or more years of service time. If the player has 5 or more years of service time he becomes a free agent if you do not extend. If the player has 1-4 years of service time you can choose not to extend and will still exercise control over the player for his remaining years of service.

Article IX. Section 6 Any player with an expiring contract that has less than 6 years of service time, but makes more than the salary scale above can be renewed for another year at the same salary. Players with more than 6 years of service time and an expiring contract are eligible for free agency.

I have not specified a deadline for signing contract extensions or cutting player under team control, but this rule implies a deadline of Nov. 30th. I would say that any player with 6+ years of service time who is not offered a contract extension at this time automatically becomes a Free Agent, and any player that is not specifically cut or resigned by this date is automatically in arbitration.

The issue Randy is raising about timing is a good one, as it would be possible to cut a player with the full knowledge of how they performed during the season. This is a big advantage if the player suffers a career ending injury. I understand the limitation and am open to discussion of moving the decision date back, perhaps to the mid-season Supplemental Free Agent signing period? While we would still have a half season of information to act on, it would increase the difficulty of the decision making process. Thoughts?

Paul_Long71 wrote:
so am I right that the options for me with Kris Bryant (5 years of service, $6.91M) are:

1. Sign him to a 5 or more year deal at 6.91 per year (YES as far as 5 or more years, but money is determined by the average of the top 25% of players salaries at the same PRIMARY position, or $6.91M, whichever is higher?).
2. release him after this year (YES)
3. go to arbitration and either get him for $4mil or his next year's SOM salary (whichever is higher) (YES)



My answers are above merely to see if I have a clue as to what's going on.

Madal is correct. My intent in having different arb rules for 5th year players versus 3-4 year players was to force GMs to make a tough choice between "buying out" the arb years of a promising young player on the cheap for four more years, or waiting for the last year before free agency and potentially paying a steep price. Since the players cannot negotiate their contracts, I included this rule to model some level of negotiation into the game.

Take Vlad Guerrero Jr. who was signed for $950,000. He will be resigned for $950,000 next year (because his SOM draft salary is higher than the league minimum of $600,00 for a year 2 player). In year 3 he will again be resigned for $950,000 (higher than the league minimum of $700,000). Now it gets challenging. In year 4 Vlad is eligible for arbitration, meaning that he can be resigned for $2 mil for one year (the league minimum for a 4 year player) or for the SOM value of his card that year. Let's assume Vlad has a monster year and you are pretty sure he has a $9 card coming out. What do you do? Take him to arbitration? Probably not or you will be paying through the nose. How about a contract extension? At least you can lock him up for four more years at a price that puts his salary in the top half of players rather than the HOF salary he's likely to win in arbitration. The cost? You will lose him to Free Agency after four years.

However, if Vlad has a career ending injury at any time over these three years, you could cut him.

I hope this helps.

I see what you're saying oldman. But I think there's a difference in what happens before this first season, and what will happen in subsequent seasons.

It seems to me the current draft is to set a league starting point, or baseline (haha). So in essence, we are drafting players that are already under one year contracts already negotiated. There can't be free-agency or arbitration after the draft because everyone is already under contract for the upcoming season. I also don't think you can cut anyone after the draft (unless you eat their salary this year).

So the decisions after the draft become what's listed out on page 4. For example, a guy with more than 6 years, we either extend now, after the draft, or he plays this year at his current salary, then becomes a free agent. Same with 3-5 year guys, extend now, after the draft,or he plays under is current salary this year, and we take our chances in arbitration after the season, or cut him after the season because he has less than 6 years.

The effects of the initial draft will lessen as the seasons go forward, as the salary structure conforms more to what's in the rules, I believe.

Make no mistake, I COULD BE WAY OFF HERE!