Moneyball Baseball League Chat

"The rules do say that the free agency period begins on December 1st and ends the second Friday in February, so it would make sense to make Nov. 30th the last day to sign contract extensions, cut players, or declare arbitration."

The confusion comes from this answer back on page 7 to my original question about cutting a player after you have declared you are going to arbitration with him. You say that Nov. 30 should be the last day to decide on extensions etc. If that was in error or, you misunderstood what I was asking and contract decision are going to be made right after the draft like I had thought they were in the first place, then we have no problem.

The confusion comes from this answer back on page 7 to my original question about cutting a player after you have declared you are going to arbitration with him. You say that Nov. 30 should be the last day to decide on extensions etc. If that was in error or, you misunderstood what I was asking and contract decision are going to be made right after the draft like I had thought they were in the first place, then we have no problem.

Oh okay, thanks. Yes, contract extensions are must be made right after the draft as per this rule:

Article I.Section 03 Immediately after the inaugural draft, owning teams are able to, but are not obligated to, sign each eligible draftee to a contract extension as per the CONTRACT RULES established in Article IX below.
(a) Cot’s Baseball contracts will be used for determining a player’s term of service, rounded up, for the purposes of offering contract extensions after the inaugural draft (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... tion/cots/).
(b) Draftees must have three or more years of service time in order to be eligible for a contract extension.
(c) Contract extensions take effect prior to the start of season 1 and count toward the inaugural salary cap.

The November 30 deadline is for next year.

I think the confusion is from my mention of arbitration. There is no arbitration after the draft. You can either offer a contract extension or keep the player for one year at his drafted salary. If the player is under team control and you do not offer an extension after the draft, you will need to make a contract decision by Nov. 30th for next season. Players with 6+ years of service at the time of the draft become Free Agents without a contract extension.

so then we do get to see how his real-life 2020 season plays out before deciding to cut a guy or go to arbitration. is that correct?

The confusion comes from this answer back on page 7 to my original question about cutting a player after you have declared you are going to arbitration with him. You say that Nov. 30 should be the last day to decide on extensions etc. If that was in error or, you misunderstood what I was asking and contract decision are going to be made right after the draft like I had thought they were in the first place, then we have no problem.

Oh okay, thanks. Yes, contract extensions are must be made right after the draft as per this rule:

Article I.Section 03 Immediately after the inaugural draft, owning teams are able to, but are not obligated to, sign each eligible draftee to a contract extension as per the CONTRACT RULES established in Article IX below.
(a) Cot’s Baseball contracts will be used for determining a player’s term of service, rounded up, for the purposes of offering contract extensions after the inaugural draft (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... tion/cots/).
(b) Draftees must have three or more years of service time in order to be eligible for a contract extension.
(c) Contract extensions take effect prior to the start of season 1 and count toward the inaugural salary cap.

The November 30 deadline is for next year.

I think the confusion is from my mention of arbitration. There is no arbitration after the draft. You can either offer a contract extension or keep the player for one year at his drafted salary. If the player is under team control and you do not offer an extension after the draft, you will need to make a contract decision by Nov. 30th for next season. Players with 6+ years of service at the time of the draft become Free Agents without a contract extension.

Alright now we are getting there. Extensions must be made after the draft for all players. Now bear with me Phil, I'm going to use Frankie Montas as an example. He's a 3 year player and I decide not to give him the 4 year extension. You seem to be saying that I can wait till Nov.30 to decide whether to drop him or go to arbitration. If this is what you are saying than again we are in the situation of me knowing exactly how he did in 2020 when I make that decision. I'm going to know pretty closely what the strat price is going to be making for a pretty easy decision. An arbitrator is ruling on a contract for the upcoming season, not waiting to see how that player does and then deciding how much he should get. Doesn't it make more sense to decide on arbitration now? Of course because of the lag between the real life season being played and the cards coming out we won't know exactly what the cost will be till next March. That's my last pitch. If you say Nov.30 so be it. I just hope I'm making my thoughts clear and thank you for your patience and work setting this league up.
Randy

Alright now we are getting there. Extensions must be made after the draft for all players. Now bear with me Phil, I'm going to use Frankie Montas as an example. He's a 3 year player and I decide not to give him the 4 year extension. You seem to be saying that I can wait till Nov.30 to decide whether to drop him or go to arbitration. If this is what you are saying than again we are in the situation of me knowing exactly how he did in 2020 when I make that decision. I'm going to know pretty closely what the strat price is going to be making for a pretty easy decision. An arbitrator is ruling on a contract for the upcoming season, not waiting to see how that player does and then deciding how much he should get. Doesn't it make more sense to decide on arbitration now? Of course because of the lag between the real life season being played and the cards coming out we won't know exactly what the cost will be till next March. That's my last pitch. If you say Nov.30 so be it. I just hope I'm making my thoughts clear and thank you for your patience and work setting this league up.

I hear you. It is a problem, but I don't think it is as big an issue as you think. Remember, most of your players will be controlled through Free Agency or through promotion from your minor league roster, so these decisions will look different after the draft year. Let me take Vlad Guerrero as an example. He was drafted in his first year of service for $950,000. No contract extension is possible. This MLB season Vlad hammers his way into the national consciousness and produces a $10 card in 2020. That card will cost you $950,000 in salary cap for year 2. In his third year of control he mashes again! Another $10 card, another $950,000 hit to the old salary cap (nice pick teamnasty!). Now comes his 4th year of control. You need to make a decision on Nov. 30 about extending, cutting, or going to arbitration. Vladdy just had another great year! Do you go to arb where he will cost $2 mil or his upcoming card value (probably $10 mil again)? Or do you offer and extension and get him for four years at the avg salary of the top 50% of players in his primary position (let's say $5 mil)? Or do you cut him and take a chance on free agency?

Where the Nov. 30th decision date offers GMs an advantage is if a player suffers a career ending injury during the previous season. Then you can take advantage of knowledge that a real GM wouldn't have.

Yes having the info on a career ending injury would be the ultimate advantage of having info a real GM wouldn't have. But I don't think you are putting enough weight on just knowing what Vlad does that year will have. If he has similar stats to the previous 2 years where his card was $10 you might have a bit of a decision. But if his production slips by half you know he's going to come in at around $5 and are certainly going to take advantage of the 4 year extension(yes it could be somewhat higher depending on average salary). You're even going to know if there was some reason for the decline like a nagging injury that has cleared up and won't be affecting him going forward. Conversely if he has a monster Barry Bonds like season and you figure he's going to be around $15 you will most certainly not extend all based on the info a real life GM would not have. But like I said I'm ok with it if that's the way you want to do it and it will be the same for everybody. Thanks for the prompt response.

Question re: arbitration. Assume I have Vlad in year 3, he has a 9 million dollar card. Assume that for the 4 year extension purpose the top 50% salary figure is 7 million. Can I extend him at 7 million per year for 4 years, or must I pay the higher carded amount of 9 million a year for 4 years?

But if his production slips by half you know he's going to come in at around $5 and are certainly going to take advantage of the 4 year extension. You're even going to know if there was some reason for the decline like a nagging injury that has cleared up and won't be affecting him going forward. Conversely if he has a monster Barry Bonds like season and you figure he's going to be around $15 you will most certainly not extend all based on the info a real life GM would not have. But like I said I'm ok with it if that's the way you want to do it and it will be the same for everybody.

I get it, and I'm not opposed to moving up the decision date. I think the Supplemental Free Agent signing would add a little more uncertainty to the process. But we're started the league and I think we would have to consider rule changes after we get settled. I don't think it is a fatal flaw. There is a rule that will be a problem that will need addressing.

Section X.10 Un-carded players are ineligible for free agency. If you have them on your roster you can keep them for the duration of your control, but they cannot be signed as free agents.

This means we may miss out on using Glasnow and Manaea next year if they have great 2020 seasons. Perhaps changing the rule to reflect a certain number of PAs or batters faced would be better for making an uncarded player eligible for free agency? We'd want to set it close to the hinged/unhinged line to add an element of risk.

I just want to point out, though, that this is an issue for players you develop and promote. Most of your roster will be comprised of Free Agents who you will have to bid for with the perfect knowledge that everyone else has perfect knowledge about the kind of season a player had.

By the way, with your Vlad example, the choice is between locking him up for four years and losing him to FA thereafter OR risk waiting for year 5 and signing him to a long term contract. The year 4 arb price might look very attractive in your example, but you will lose him after those four years.

Question re: arbitration. Assume I have Vlad in year 3, he has a 9 million dollar card. Assume that for the 4 year extension purpose the top 50% salary figure is 7 million. Can I extend him at 7 million per year for 4 years, or must I pay the higher carded amount of 9 million a year for 4 years?

You extend him at 7 mil.

Players between 3-4 years of service time can be given a 4 year contract at the league average price for their primary position. The league average price is defined as the average price of the top 50% of players by salary at the same primary position on league 40 man rosters at the time of the contract offer, rounded down to the nearest whole number of players.

This rule:

Any player who has a salary that exceeds this structure, can have their contract extended (for at least 5 years), at the current salary they make (ie. Mookie Betts makes $10.19 million, he could be extended for 5 more seasons at this rate)...

is meant to apply only to players in their 5th year only.

Question re: arbitration. Assume I have Vlad in year 3, he has a 9 million dollar card. Assume that for the 4 year extension purpose the top 50% salary figure is 7 million. Can I extend him at 7 million per year for 4 years, or must I pay the higher carded amount of 9 million a year for 4 years?

You extend him at 7 mil.

Players between 3-4 years of service time can be given a 4 year contract at the league average price for their primary position. The league average price is defined as the average price of the top 50% of players by salary at the same primary position on league 40 man rosters at the time of the contract offer, rounded down to the nearest whole number of players.

This rule:

Any player who has a salary that exceeds this structure, can have their contract extended (for at least 5 years), at the current salary they make (ie. Mookie Betts makes $10.19 million, he could be extended for 5 more seasons at this rate)...

is meant to apply only to players in their 5th year only.

C) For players with 3-4 years of service time you can extend the player with a 4 year contract at the league average salary for their primary position or at their current SOM salary, whichever is higher. The league average salary is defined as the average salary of the top 50% of players by at the same primary position on league 40 man rosters at the time of the draft. If you do not extend the player, they are still under your control next season and you can resign them using the arbitration rules.

"Phil this is what you wrote in your post back on page 4 regarding players with 3-4 years of service. Are you now saying this was an error and the part about "or at their current SOM salary, whichever is higher" only applies to 5th year players? Need to know for sure before making my next pick.