Moneyball Baseball League Chat

Here's an example:

Kris Bryant is a 5 year guy. He has a som salary this year of $6.91. I obviously don't want to just extend him as the top 25% of 3B guys is gonna be about $9.4 or so. Don't want to cut him either. So I go to arbitration.

I think that means I either get him for $4Mil next year OR the price of his card. Let's say that price ends up being $5.5 Mil.

So I get him for his 6th year of service at $5.5 (the higher of the 2 prices). Now after that year, I'd like to extend him. He's now a 6 year guy, can I extend him for $5.5 for the next 5 years? I certainly hope so, but better make sure.

otherwise 5 year guys are poison.....and I have two already

"Phil this is what you wrote in your post back on page 4 regarding players with 3-4 years of service. Are you now saying this was an error and the part about "or at their current SOM salary, whichever is higher" only applies to 5th year players? Need to know for sure before making my next pick.

Yes, this is what I am saying. The reason I included this rule for 5th year players is because I didn't want an owner to be able to extend a player for the rest of their career at a price that was lower than the price of their last card. For example, imagine that Bregman was in his fifth year rather than his fourth. His card price is $10.93 mil, but the average salary of the top 25% (I used the top 7) is $8.7 mil. He should not be signed for less than his current price if his carded price is higher than the avg of the top 25%. This rule causes owners to think about the choice of extending a 3-4 year player versus waiting for year 5. It may be cheaper to extend a player for four years at the cost of losing him to free agency than it is to wait a year and offer a year 5 extension.

Take Bregman again as an example. Let's imagine that we started the league last year a you drafted Bregman with 4 years of service time (I know he really would have had only 3 years) at a salary of $9.86 million. Let's assume that the average salary for the top 50% of 3rd basemen that year was $7mil. You could sign him to a 4 year extension at $7 mil a year, but at the end of the contract he would become a free agent. Let's say you decided to go to arbitration instead, knowing that he had a great 2019 season. You think his price will be close to the 2018 salary but want to keep the door open to a possible 5th year extension in the hopes of locking him up for more years. It turns out his arb price for 2019 is $10.93 mil! Ooops, you lose. Now you have to offer him a 5+ year contract at $10.93 mil if you want to keep him, or he will become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season.

I can see the merit in moving the decision date ahead, but I'm not sure how we could do that before the first season is played. We would essentially be asking owners to make two decisions: do you want to extend your eligible player this year? If no, do you want to extend that eligible player next year? I think it is possible to do it, but let's get through the draft and then have a discussion.

I'm almost scared to ask this but after reading the last paragraph I've got to. My idea of this league was essentially all the teams have fired their GMs and hired us as the replacements. Every player has just played 2019 and been paid the salary equal to their SOM price and all their contracts are up. We play out the 2019 season because that's what we do. However all the contract decisions we are about to make are for the 2020 season and beyond. None of those decisions affect 2019 -- Bregman will have made 10.93 in 2019 and he will have 4 years of service going in to 2020. He will not have 5 years just because someone drafted and used him as we replayed the 2019 season. The GM who drafted Bregman is now going to come to a contract agreement for 2020 or longer if he decides he wants to offer a contract extension. Is this the basic idea of the league Phil, that 2019 is done and yes we will be replaying it twice, but that all our contract decisions apply to 2020 and beyond.

pretty sure that is accurate oldmansmith. I don't see any way that we can change the player's salary for the initial 2019 season. That is set by what the SOM price is. I think all extensions etc... are for 2020 and beyond. If not, we may need to stop the draft and clear up exactly how this works.

I fucked up. If it says arb3 in the 2020 column you can offer a contract extension before Nov. 30, 2020. You sign him for 1 year after the draft. You can extend if you want using top 50%.

It's been a hectic week guys. I'm trying to manage the draft and the rules while working on remote learning planning for our college. Bear with me. If you want to halt the draft until we answer the questions we can. I'll have more time this weekend.

i agree 2019 prices are already est....like it was said we are just playing 2019 because thats what we do....everything we do is for beyond 2019........

Okay, I finally have a moment to digest what you are saying and you are correct, especially Randy and Paul. Draft salaries are set for 2019, extensions will begin I 2020 and beyond. Essentially a four year extension gives you five seasons of control. Agreed?

No worries Phil we'll get it figured out. About to make my pick and I just want to get this down and explain why I wouldn't have picked Altuve. When I picked him you had written your post on page 4 where it says that when extending 3rd and 4th year guys you use the the league average for his position or his SOM cost whichever is higher. You are now saying that that only applies to 5th year guys and that 3rd and 4th will be at the league average. That makes high priced 3 and 4 year guys way more attractive. i didn't draft Ketel Marte for that reason. I figured his $9.85 price tag too high to warrant a 4 year extension. But if I only have to pay the league average which is going to be lower for sure than I'm much more likely to extend. And yes I know he becomes a free agent at the end of the 4 years but at least I will have him for a total of 5 years with the last 4 being at somewhat of a discounted price. I'm going to go ahead and draft Marte and use him at CF or put Altuve at DH.

Agreed!

guess I missed that it was only top 50% I thought it was top 50% or current salary whichever was higher. That's why I kept on passing on Marte (I'm out here in AZ, so big D'back fan) as I figured he had a horrible card to begin the league with.

Oh well. guess I should have asked. Anyway, on a side note, Marte's primary position is CF for the '19 season so when Randy goes to arbitration and gets the top 50% that would be the top 50% of centerfielders, correct?

or.... probably easier....it's the top 50% of all outfielders. guess I am wondering how specific we are being for outfielders. is it LF/CF/RF or just OF. kind of important as they change positions a little more often than other position players (LF to CF or RF etc...)

I once was found, but now I am lost

Are we extending after draft based on current salary......or do extensions have to wait?
And on inaugural draft, what are we doing on salary and percentages for extensions?

(Driving, so hard to keep up with the thread as it is going)