Baserunning metrics

I have seen some of the wiser players opine that when looking at your SB settings, a ratio of 3-1 safe to out is a good rule of thumb.

What about the percentage of times your runners try for an extra base?

Should they be safe 3/4 of the time? How often should they attempt to go versus the opportunity to go?

I looked back at a recent 80m Forbes team that I had that won 94 games. My settings were base stealing [conservative] which I would change against certain teams and for base running [ very aggressive]. The results were, stolen bases 94 caught stealing 31 [just the results you would want] base running 417 opportunities 280 advanced the extra base and 30 outs attempting, thats a plus of 250 . I use these settings most of the time and get pretty much the same results obviously much depends on the type of team you put together. The individual hitter preferences have a [do not steal / steal more option] but no such option for taking the extra base so you are at the mercy of HAL but i have found using the very aggressive or aggressive team option does work well.

1787-

Interesting. I expect you had a pretty fast team for those settings, right?

yes of my starting 9 [ 5 ] were 1-17 [ 2] 1-16 [1] 1-15 [1] 1-10

Agree with Bill. Have seen similar results and almost always use Very Aggressive on a fast team.

Overall, unlike the stealing algorithms, I have found the baserunning decision algorithm to be more conservative in general. So with a fast team, it feels like you can't get it to run enough.

But you still lack individual control and get burned by stupid moves, like a lead foot trying to take an extra base in a close game, which is silly. Hence the reason many of us scratched our heads with some of the recent changes to lineups and reliever usage for instance. There is plenty of other stuff to work on that would add more control to managers.

I have tended to use Aggressive base running with a fast team. Maybe that's too conservative? One pretty fast recent team set on Aggressive had 489 Opps, 248 Adv, and 33 Outs, for a plus of 215. Would I be better off pushing that to Very Aggressive? On this fast team, Browning went 44-1 (58 opps), Chino Smith 49-3 (67 opps), Lajoie 36-2 (50 opps), and Kal Daniels 19-0 (29 opps).

So they are going for the base most of the time, and taking it with virtual impunity. My slower players were responsible for most of the outs. For example, catcher Don Slaught (10 speed) was 11-5 out of 61 (opps). That's more outs that Browning, Chino and Daniels combined. They were 112-4. Would it be better to push for even more attempts--which I'm afraid might encourage Slaught as much or more than my speedsters. I don't know....

I've used Aggressive for base running on teams with average speed, and think that's a good idea, but I haven't carefully tested it. It's nice to have the Baserunning info, which we had before, but too laborious for me at least to track all the attempt base running chances, and see what the situation was for each one.

One thing I'm pretty sure of is that base running, on most teams, is more important than base stealing, because there are so many more opportunities.

Oops! Double post...

When I was a kid playing the board game, I would steal on a net 1-13 or better. Given that the rule of thumb here is a 75% success rate, I would adjust that to 1-15 net.

Probably use a similar metric for taking an extra base. If the net safe is 1-15, go.

Problem is that situations vary and I don't see a way for a computer to do it 'right'. For example, if it is the bottom of the 9th and a runner could score the game tying or winning run. Who's on deck? What does your pitching situation look like? Too many variables that a human manager could take into account and decide, but HAL probably can't reliably.

What I think CAN be fixed are things like going to 3rd with 2 outs on a marginal chance. Why? You are in scoring position anyway.

Easy for me to say, I'm not the one who has to write the program!

Just starting in ATG 8 after having played the board game many years ago.
Would you consider this a fast enough team, on average, to set as aggressive or very aggressive? I think so, despite the two sluggards at the end.
Thanks
1-17
1-17
1-17
1-15
1-14
1-13
1-11
1-9

I would certainly go with aggressive base running .