Moneyball Baseball Contract Thread

By top 10% do you mean top 25% for the 5th year player extension calculation? Do you need to recalculate?

That 10% is just a reference point. Same with the overall league averages he lists. The relevant sections are the top 25% for 5yr guys listed under arb3 and the top 50% averages for 3-4 year guys listed under arb 1&2

I am asking the 2nd question....as our regular way?? I think I interpret the rules that these decisions need to be made by Nov 30 in a normal year. What is there to be gained by doing it now?

This was discussed at length in the chat thread. Here's the short version. We are giving contracts to players for the upcoming 2020 season (and beyond in the case of a multi year deal). If we wait till November we would have full knowledge of how each player does in 2020. That would make contract decisions very easy and unrealistic to make. In real life a team doesn't get to say to the player we will wait to see how you do this year before we decide how much to offer you. Contracts are in place before the season starts. So that is why we are doing them now just like an actual GM would have too. The one bugaboo that results is with players that you take to arbitration. We will not know the exact cost of those contracts till the cards come out in March. That is why you've been cautioned to manage your salary cap with the idea that you might have to have a little extra money on hand if you have players going to arbitration. The November 30 deadline no longer applies and Phil just hasn't gotten around to changing it.

Makes sense...thank you...the Arbitration wildcard is interesting...I will probably avoid that until I see how it turns out for a few players.

As promised, here are the arbitration prices of players at each positions. I'm also including the average salary and top 10% salary for each position as well:

Position -- Avg -- ARB1&2 -- ARB3 -- Top10%

All Hitters -- $3.59 -- $5.66 -- $7.38 -- $9.15

c -- $2.06 -- $4.01 -- $5.09 -- $6.46

1b -- $4.60 -- $6.69 -- $7.96 -- $9.13

2b -- $3.00 -- $5.18 -- $6.91 -- $9.06

3b -- $4.13 -- $6.68 -- $8.45 -- $10.00

ss -- $3.49 -- $5.44 -- $7.38 -- $9.28

lf -- $3.12 -- $4.88 -- $5.41 -- $7.76

cf -- $3.42 -- $5.38 -- $7.31 -- $9.80

rf -- $4.69 -- $7.16 -- $8.64 -- $10.85


sp -- $3.19 -- $5.11 -- $6.45 -- $7.83

rp -- $2.80 -- $3.92 -- $4.47 -- $4.97


So, to see if I'm understanding these numbers correctly. Assume I have a 3rd year SP that I want to extend for 4 years. I'd have to pay 5.11 M per year per the above chart, yes? If it was a 5th year SP I could extend for 5 years at 6.45M per, yes? And in both of those examples their current card salary is irrelevant, the extension AAV's are fixed by the chart, yes?

As promised, here are the arbitration prices of players at each positions. I'm also including the average salary and top 10% salary for each position as well:

Position -- Avg -- ARB1&2 -- ARB3 -- Top10%

All Hitters -- $3.59 -- $5.66 -- $7.38 -- $9.15

c -- $2.06 -- $4.01 -- $5.09 -- $6.46

1b -- $4.60 -- $6.69 -- $7.96 -- $9.13

2b -- $3.00 -- $5.18 -- $6.91 -- $9.06

3b -- $4.13 -- $6.68 -- $8.45 -- $10.00

ss -- $3.49 -- $5.44 -- $7.38 -- $9.28

lf -- $3.12 -- $4.88 -- $5.41 -- $7.76

cf -- $3.42 -- $5.38 -- $7.31 -- $9.80

rf -- $4.69 -- $7.16 -- $8.64 -- $10.85


sp -- $3.19 -- $5.11 -- $6.45 -- $7.83

rp -- $2.80 -- $3.92 -- $4.47 -- $4.97


So, to see if I'm understanding these numbers correctly. Assume I have a 3rd year SP that I want to extend for 4 years. I'd have to pay 5.11 M per year per the above chart, yes? If it was a 5th year SP I could extend for 5 years at 6.45M per, yes? And in both of those examples their current card salary is irrelevant, the extension AAV's are fixed by the chart, yes?

If you look back on page 1 I've listed the 2 things that were left out of Phil's examples.
1) 5 yr. players can be extended as long as you want but with a minimum of 5 years. 3and 4 yr. players can be extended for 4 years no more no less.
2) 5 year players are extended at the applicable league average or their 2019 SOMO price, whichever is higher, so their current card salaries are relevant for those ones. So you have the right cost in the 2 examples you give unless their 2019 card prices were greater than the averages.

"2) 3,4 and 5 year players are extended at the applicable league average or their 2019 SOMO price, whichever is higher, so their current card salaries are relevant for those ones. So you have the right cost in the 2 examples you give unless their 2019 card prices were greater than the averages."


That's not what rule 9.09(a) says. It says the 4 year buyout of arbitration years is priced at the 50% value, not the carded value.

"Players with 1-2 years of service are under team control and can be resigned next year at their current salary or the league average salary for their year of service, whichever is higher; OR you can announce that you are releasing them. If you release the player, they become a free agent for 2020."

Phil, the above is incorrect I believe. 1-2 year players can be resigned for the following year at the higher of either their current card salary or the salary contained in the minimum salary chart in rule 9.05, not the "league average salary for their year of service". Please confirm.

My apologies than Guess I should wait for Phil to give the answers. I may not understand the rules as well as I thought. lol

If you think about it it makes sense. You SHOULD be able to buyout arbitration years at a discount below their carded salary. That's the advantage of team control of a young player. You lose the flexibility of going year by year to see what the arbitration salary will be, but you gain the cost certainty of 4 years of control of a player at a price somewhat below open FA market.

By top 10% do you mean top 25% for the 5th year player extension calculation? Do you need to recalculate?

It's just informational to give you an idea what the elite players are paid. It's usually the top 2 or 3 players at the position.