Moneyball Baseball Contract Thread

So I went back to the chat thread where we had discussed this before. On page 4 Phil gave examples of contracts that had an error in it. It had the "league average or current SOMO cost whichever is higher" part applying to 3 and 4 year guys. On page 12 Phil corrected it with this post:
"Yes this is what I'm saying. The reason I included this rule for 5th year players is because I didn't want an owner to be able to extend a player for the rest of their career at a price that was lower than the price of their last card. For example, imagine that Bregman was in his fifth year rather than his fourth. His card price is $10.93 mil, but the average salary of the top 25% (I used the top 7) is $8.7 mil. He should not be signed for less than his current price if his carded price is higher than the avg of the top 25%. This rule causes owners to think about the choice of extending a 3-4 year player versus waiting for year 5. It may be cheaper to extend a player for four years at the cost of losing him to free agency than it is to wait a year and offer a year 5 extension."
So unless things have changed, 3 and 4 year guys are at the league averages posted. 5 year guys are at the league average for them or their 2019 SOMO price whichever is higher.

Sorry gentleman, dealing with life issues right now so I may be slow to respond over the next few days.

Randy has the right interpretation. The contract extension rule is as follows:

CONTRACT EXTENSIONS Teams wishing to extend the contract of a player can do so in two ways.

Extending Young Players: Players between 3-4 years of service time (arb1 or arb 2) can be given a 4 year contract at the league average price for their primary position. The league average price is defined as the average price of the top 50% of players by salary at the same primary position on league 40 man rosters at the time of the contract offer, rounded down to the nearest whole number of players. This will eliminate their eligibility for the fifth and sixth year exceptions. Once a player has over 4 years of service time, they are no longer eligible for this extension.

Extending Players 2: Players with one year before free agency (arb 3) are eligible for an extension. Extensions must be at least five years long but can be longer. Salary scale is determined as the league average price of the top 25% of players by salary at the same primary position on league 40 man rosters at the time of the contract offer, rounded down to the nearest whole number of players.

Any player who has a salary that exceeds this structure, can have their contract extended (for at least 5 years), at the current salary they make (ie. Mookie Betts makes $10.19 million, he could be extended for 5 more seasons at this rate).

Players must be extended at no less than their current SOM salary. I would love to extend Joey Gallo at $4.96 mil but he is going to cost me $5.38 mil a year for four years to extend. I could take him to arbitration next year, but then I would have to extend him in an arb 3 year where the average salary of a top 25% cf is $7.31 mil instead of the $5.38 I have to pony up now for the next four years.

Something to think about is that these rules were not designed for the inaugural draft. Imagine the following: Randy drafts a young stud, let's say Wander Franco, in the 2019 prospect draft. Franco has a quick trip to the show but doesn't get a card in 2020 and thus remains a prospect. In 2021 Franco is called up and gets a card. That starts his clock. So for our 2021 season Randy has Franco for $500,000. Let's say in 2022 Franco shines and produces an $8 card. Randy gets it for $600k. In 2023 Franco starts to look like a future hall of famer and gets a $10 card. Randy gets it for $700k, ending Franco's three year pre-arb run. Now Randy has to decide, what do I do? Take him to arb next year and risk paying $8-9 mil, or sign him to a four year extension at $5-6 mil (the approximate going rate for SS in this years arbitration signings). If Randy does sign him to an extension, he gets to enjoy one of the future games finest players at a relative bargain price. The cost? He loses him to free agency after four years. Randy could wait until his arb 3 year and sign him to a long term extension if he looks like a hall of famer, but he would be paying full value for the right to control.

Phil

ok guys i'll do the 1st one and you can pick it apart to see if it all works...lol

Cape Bear Contracts For Next Season

6+ yrs service extensions
1: 3B Manny Machado 5 yrs X $5,210,000
2: C Christian Vazquez 4 yrs X $3,920,000
3: 1B Hosmer, Eric 3 yrs X $2.540,000
4: SP Corbin, Patrick 3 yrs X $6,000,000
5:SP Stroman, Marcus 2 yrs X $ 4,080,000
6: RP Harris, Will 1 yr X S 3,160,00
7:• SP Archer, Chris 2 yrs X $ $1,000,000
8:CL Giles, Ken 3 yrs X S 4,750,000
9: SP Anderson, Brett 1 yr X $3,100,000
10: SP/RP Chatwood, Tyler 1 yr X $2.560,000
11: RF Reddick, Josh 1 yr X $3,070,000
12: 2B Hernandez, Cesar 3 yrs X $2,050,000

5 yrs service contract extensions:
No contract extensions to announce for 5 yr players

3 & 4 yr service contract extensions:(ARB eligible)
13: 2B Adam Frazier 4 yrs X $5,180,000 (ARB #2)
14: RF/1B Trey Mancini (taking him to arbitration)(ARB #2)
16: C Caratini, Victor (taking him to arbitration) (ARB #1)
17: 3B Candelario, Jeimer (taking him to arbitration) (ARB #1)
18:SP Flaherty, Jack (taking him to arbitration) (ARB #1)

The following 1-2 yr players are considered signed for next year:
19: SS Bichette, Bo
20:SS Straw, Myles
21: LF Yastrzemski, Mike
22: C Stallings, Jacob
23: RF Aquino, Aristides
24: 1B Ford, Mike
25: 2B Wade, Tyler
26: 3B Ruiz, Rio
27: SS Urena, Richard
28:CF Phillips, Brett
29: 3B France, Ty
30: RP Maton, Phil
31:LF Juan Soto
32:SP Gallen, Zac
33:SP Means, John
34:RP Bummer, Aaron

15: CF Margot, Manuel... Service 4 yrs... 1 yr @ $3,000,000

THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS WERE "NOT" OFFERED CONTRACTS
35: CF Hamilton, Billy
36: RP Brooks, Aaron
37:RP Maton, Phil
38:RP Kintzler, Brandon
39:RP Bradley, Archie
40:RP Lorenzen, Michael

"Players with 1-2 years of service are under team control and can be resigned next year at their current salary or the league average salary for their year of service, whichever is higher; OR you can announce that you are releasing them. If you release the player, they become a free agent for 2020."

Phil, the above is incorrect I believe. 1-2 year players can be resigned for the following year at the higher of either their current card salary or the salary contained in the minimum salary chart in rule 9.05, not the "league average salary for their year of service". Please confirm.

Phil didn't answer this one but I'm pretty certain that you are right teamnasty. It should read league minimum salary, not league average salary.

Thanks Paul, I love the format. It makes it easy for me to maintain the spreadsheet.

There are a couple of errors in your contract offers. Richard Urena and Brett Phillips would be signed at $600k and $700k respectively because of league minimums.

Jack Flaherty is arbitration eligible next year, so should be on your arbitration list. Alternatively, you can offer him a 4 year contract at $5.11 million. Which brings me to our arbitration and salary cap problem.

Before we proceed any further, I brought up the issue of penalties for going over the salary cap on the chat thread. I think we need to settle this question before going on with the salary contracts. The reason is there is a great risk of going over the cap through arbitration losses if you are not very careful to budget for bad outcomes. Paul has given us a good example with his contract proposals. He has five players up for arbitration if we include Flaherty: three are arb 1 and two are arb 2. If Paul wins all five he will have to pay $12 million (3 x $2 mil, 2 x $3 mil) for all five players. If he should lose any he would have to pay much more than $12 million. Let's assume he takes Flaherty to arb (unlikely to produce another $8.3 mil card, right?) and loses because the guy produces a $10 card, and on top of that loss Trey Mancini helps get the O's to the playoffs by producing a $9 card. Carantini, Candelario, and Margot produce a $2, $4 and $5 card. Now Paul will need to pay $30 mil in arbitration.

These arbitration decisions are settled AFTER the free agency period, so where as Paul thought he had $35 million to spend on 6 free agents, he might only have $5 million in a worse case scenario! If he spends $20 million in free agent signings and then gets stung with $30 million in arbitration decisions, he will be around $15 million over the salary cap.

This brings me back to my original question. What should the penalty be? You can see how going over may become a problem if we all don't manage our caps very conservatively.

Please take your thoughts on this back to the chat thread and let's see if we can hash it out.

Phil

Phil didn't answer this one but I'm pretty certain that you are right teamnasty. It should read league minimum salary, not league average salary.

Sorry, you are correct. It should read "league minimum". So in Paul's posted contracts, Brett Phillips is resigned at $700,000, while Juan Soto is resigned at $8,890,000.

I have been following you guys and I really wanted to sign up. Yep I was correct. It was way over my head. Good Luck and what a great concept/

The Charlottetown Knights have come to terms or going to arbitration with the following players:
6+ years of service
1 Buster Posey 3yrs x 1,880,000
2 Wilson Ramos 1yr x 4,180,000
3 Jose Altuve 5yrs x 5,860,000
4 Elvis Andrus 2yrs x 3,010,00
5 Jean Segura 1yr x 1,820,000
6 Anthony Rendon 4yrs x 10,320,000
7 Lorenzo Cain 2yrs x 4,120,000
8 Aaron Hicks 2yrs x 2,440,000
9 Sonny Gray 1yr x 6,550,000
10 Jake Odorizzi 1yr x 4,550,000
11 Jose Alvarez 1yr x 940,000
12 Tanner Roark 1yr x 880,000
13 Carlos Martinez 2yrs x 3,440,000

3-4 years of service
14 Gio Urshela Arb1
15 Ketel Marte 4yrs x 5,180,000
16 Tim Anderson Arb2
17 Frankie Montas Arb1
18 Ross Stripling Arb2
19 Jarlin Garcia Arb1
20 Matt Magill Arb1

1-2 years of service renewed for 2020
21 Christian Walker
22 Matt Thaiss
23 Victor Reyes
24 Philip Ervin
25 Jake Cave
26 Tim Lopes
27 Harold Ramirez
28 Jake Bauers
29 Dominic Smith
30 Shane Bieber
31 Alex Young
32 Griffin Canning
33 Spencer Turnbull
34 Marcus Walden
35 Josh Taylor

Players looking for work next season
36 Cameron Maybin
37 Bryan Holoday
38 Starlin Castro
39 Hansel Robles
40 Luis Perdomo

Phil, an important question. Rule 9.09 contract extensions for 3-4 and 5th year players require that we extend at the 50% or 25% salary level for players' "primary" position, but primary position isn't defined in the rule. For multi position players is "primary" the first position listed on the card, or are we using some other metric like most-games played or started at?

thanks,
TN

For multi position players is "primary" the first position listed on the card, or are we using some other metric like most-games played or started at?

Yes, I just use the first position listed on the card. It's just administratively easier as I have the SOM spreadsheet.

Phil