Random Number Generator?

I read all of my team’s play by play. So far this year I don’t think any of my pitchers have been left in when getting below F9.

I read all of my team’s play by play. So far this year I don’t think any of my pitchers have been left in when getting below F9.

Then what happened (114 of 183 for a single player) would probably happen to approximately 1 of 2000 managers such as yourself (binomial distribution calculation of 183 trials = .000543346). This would suggest a non-flawed process in how the randomization is working.

Of course I could be wrong and instead, subscribe to a conspiracy theory that Mike Jackson was the designated "catch-all" recipient of a bunch of not-so-random rolls on the hitters card that forced some higher level number to reconcile to close to 50/50. This would suggest a flawed process in how the randomization is working.

Or, maybe, there is no flaw in the random number generator process, but, if we imagine a large array of pre-generated dice rolls at the beginning of each evening before the games are played, there could be a flaw in the distribution process of the generated numbers. The bug could be caused by unintentional sorting of a set or subset of numbers.

Now, if you assume there are 50 coding snippets that work with arrays and 49 are coded flawlessly and one is erroneously coded so that the array of dice rolls is put into ascending sequence and if you assume Mike Jackson pitches mainly in the late innings as opposed to a starting pitcher, then, you've got potential for a Mike Jackson, rather than a Dwight Gooden, to unfairly shoulder the brunt of the software error.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Just an update now that a few more series have been played. Mike Jackson is now at 142 hitter card / 90 pitcher card. Odds of 90 or less pitcher card results in 232 trials is 0.00038856732. In short, it's actually getting worse.

Paul - that's an interesting thought - that the game generates the dice rolls ahead of playing the games.

I was thinking that maybe SOM gets by the random number "seed" problem (finding a unique seed number to pull the next random number) might be somehow related to the characteristic of the pitcher. Who knows what - hash value of their name in ASCII - as an example. And then whatever that characteristic is, Mike Jackson's value is a "bad seed." (Pardon the pun.)

With 33 games to go and a 10 game lead, it looks like I will be going to the playoffs in our 12 team league. The big question is whether to trust Mike Jackson when the playoffs start.

So this made me look.

Since I was primed by losing a game and it appeared on the play by play that my hitters “rolled” a dozen consecutive pitcher numbers. Which is an even lower probability (~1:5000) even than your Mike Jackson tilt.

And I have another guy I just picked up to be a “righty masher” whose first 11 PAs were 9 pitch, 2 hit (~1:40).

And yet another with 97/171 pitcher rolls (~1:75).

But point being, I don’t really know how many rolls constitutes a full season, but, estimating something N between 30,000 and 35,000 for a 12 team league.

Now I might be getting in over my head. But that would mean there were N-200 different series of 200 consecutive die results. So I’ll ignore the 200 due to imprecision in the N estimate.

Then using an online binomial calculator, there is >95% chance that such a sequence will occur at least ten times.

I was thinking that maybe SOM gets by the random number "seed" problem (finding a unique seed number to pull the next random number) might be somehow related to the characteristic of the pitcher. Who knows what - hash value of their name in ASCII - as an example. And then whatever that characteristic is, Mike Jackson's value is a "bad seed."

Good points, SurfDoc and MickNuggets.

Imagine you're an unassuming medical supply salesman from Ohio and you have this happen to you.....
1) A list of random dice rolls gets generated each evening before games are played. They are waiting for the games to start before they are distributed.
2) Infrequently, a subset of dice rolls from the main list gets generated and inadvertently sorted in ascending sequence due to human error. See sample list below.
3) A "bad" seed gets generated because one of your pitchers is Mike Jackson and he's just come into the game, causing the seed "pointer" to occasionally, but, not always, point somewhere toward the top half of the list more often than the bottom part of the list. Maybe, the "bad" seed is a variable from the random number generator process that failed to be re-initialized due to programming error and found its way to the distribution process. Jackson finds his breaking ball isn't working as good as usual and gets pounded. It's like the hitters know what's coming.
4) You're in another dimension of light, another dimension of sound, another dimension of mind. You're in the Stratomatic Twilight Zone.
5) Or, I could be wrong.


1-2,1-2,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-4,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-5,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-6,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-71-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-7,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-8,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-9,1-10,1-10,1-10,1-10,1-10,1-10,1-11,1-11,1-11,1-11,1-11,1-12,1-12
2-2,2-2,2-3,2-3,2-3,2-3,2-3,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-4,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-5,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-6,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-7,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-8,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-9,2-10,2-10,2-10,2-10,2-10,2-10,2-11,2-11,2-11,2-11,2-11,2-12,2-12
3-2,3-2,3-3,3-3,3-3,3-3,3-3,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-4,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-5,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-6,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-7,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-8,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-9,3-10,3-10,3-10,3-10,3-10,3-10,3-11,3-11,3-11,3-11,3-11,3-12,3-12
4-2,4-2,4-3,4-3,4-3,4-3,4-3,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-4,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-5,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-6,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-7,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-8,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-9,4-10,4-10,4-10,4-10,4-10,4-10,4-11,4-11,4-11,4-11,4-11,4-12,4-12
5-2,5-2,5-3,5-3,5-3,5-3,5-3,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-4,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-5,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-6,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-7,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-8,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-9,5-10,5-10,5-10,5-10,5-10,5-10,5-11,5-11,5-11,5-11,5-12,5-12,5-12
6-2,6-2,6-3,6-3,6-3,6-3,6-3,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-4,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-5,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-6,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-7,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-8,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-9,6-10,6-10,6-10,6-10,6-10,6-10,6-11,6-11,6-11,6-11,6-11,6-12,6-12

I saw a different post where somebody got 33 wins and 421 strikeouts out of Matt Strahm. So I guess weird things happen.

Are you referring to this 20XX Records post:

Strahm--33 wins
Nuno--32 wins

2018. On the same team!
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1525312

That post was for last years game. Things have changed.

Although the player/team in discussion here is using ATG8, not ATG9.

Maybe to put a bow on this conversation, Mike Jackson finished the regular season with a 190/133 hitter to pitcher roll split. This means since the original post, his splits were 76/64, which is obviously much (much) closer to 50/50, but still slightly favoring the hitter roll.

Statistically, he finished with a 4.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. His actual 1988 stats were 1.55 and 0.88. So, not surprisingly (based on the rolls) he disappointed.

The odds of rolling 64 or fewer pitcher rolls out of 140 is about 18%.

For the year, the odds of rolling 133 or fewer pitcher rolls out of 323 is 0.00089508715 or about .09 percent. This number falls outside of the +/- 3 sigmas. A statistician would conclude that Mike Jackson's results point to shenanigans and not randomness.

I do look forward to him screwing me over in the playoffs.