Lefty, and lefties in general

I think one of the key reasons lefties often underperform in strat is that it's very easy (and inexpensive) to find cheap platoon guys who can kill lefties. In real baseball, most left handed hitters play both ways, even if they end up with a 5R type card--you're paying that guy millions of dollars per year, so he basically plays every day.

In strat, you can get a 7L backup (you need a backup anyway) who can probably kill lefties better than a 4-6 million dollar starter. Get a couple of those guys and you can construct a team that will punish lefties very cheaply while still being mostly built for right handed pitching. No egos in online strat, so sitting a "star" vs. lefties is no biggie.

In ATG, this is very pronounced as the player pool is obviously HUGE.

Granted, yet that ought to be true for pitchers across the board (also, hitters, facing better pitching).

And in the case of Steve Carlton, he is the #15 SP only in salary. Which seemed blatantly low. And his Cy numbers included 3.10 ERA, 1.15 RAT, nearly 9K/9IP, etc. Versus Lollar, 3.13/1.20/~6.5K/9 but a much better card. And a much higher salary.

Which I guess is, it is a game, not a hyper-accurate sim.

It's a hyper accurate sim, if that's what you are actually doing. If you used Carlton the same way he was used for the season his card represents, pitched him the same number of games against the exact same lineups, and the exact same innings, the card will come very very close to reproducing Carlton's stats. What you can't expect is the hyper realism to be replicated when you take him out of that environment and place him in the one used by the online game.

Maybe, but it sure seems like "indescribably bad" is pretty far out on the range of outcomes that would be expected.

And not to beat a dead lefty horse too much, but Lefty is currently 44th in ERA amongst qualifiers in our league. And all those 44 guys ahead of him faced a similar context WRT lineup strength and what have you. (If you are wondering there are four ERA qualifiers with worse ERA's.) So not just that he has been very bad in absolute terms, he has also been very bad in comparative terms.

What do his Ks per inning have to do with anything?

Can you post a link to the team Carlton is on?

What do his Ks per inning have to do with anything?

Can you post a link to the team Carlton is on?

Here, I think is a link:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1568484

And I know, Strat, an out is an out, and if a pitcher lucked into a low BABIP fueled ERA/RAT based upon 800 grounders that year, it is just as good as if they did it with 400 K's. Unlike actual baseball, where 400 k's would be actually preferred to 80 K's. Believe me, I get all that.

And you guys, don't take it personal or as an affront to Strat, it is fun. But in The Strange Case of 1982 Steve Carlton, I don't get it. His real life, RAT was strong. His HR allowed were reasonable. His K's, very strong. His walks, quite good. All should conspire to make him one of the better SP's. Relatively speaking. Rather than one of the worst.

I actually don't get Larry Christenson either, another Philly who ought to be pretty good but is not. Although, worse than Carlton so at least that is correct.

Phillies did have some "1" defenders at 2B, 3B, CF where I have "2"'s; they also had Greg Luzinski.

I dunno, it is just weird, I have one of the more costly staffs, pitchers with generally good stats whose cards pass the eyeball test, and my results are terrible.

Thats not a very good card, youre playing in a park (Fenway) that gives up a ton of hits and gives up some righty power and your defense is not great (71% conversion of X chances). He gives up 15 hits against righties and your park is giving up another 4.5 hits in bp singles and your defense is giving up another 9 (71% of 30). And another 7 walks. 35 or so runners out 108 chances on his card. That aint great. And of course thats only 50% of the chances. The other 50% are on the batter's card, who gets 4.5 bp singles in your park and half his bp homers converted into homeruns. And he is even weaker againdt lefties. It's not really a mystery why he isnt doing well.

Thats not a very good card, youre playing in a park (Fenway) that gives up a ton of hits and gives up some righty power and your defense is not great (71% conversion of X chances). He gives up 15 hits against righties and your park is giving up another 4.5 hits in bp singles and your defense is giving up another 9 (71% of 30). And another 7 walks. 35 or so runners out 108 chances on his card. That aint great. And of course thats only 50% of the chances. The other 50% are on the batter's card, who gets 4.5 bp singles in your park and half his bp homers converted into homeruns. And he is even weaker againdt lefties. It's not really a mystery why he isnt doing well.

Thanks.

And I realize that I am somewhat belaboring this and beating a dead horse in effort to better "get" it.

So if it is not a very good card, WHY is it not a very good card? His stats, were good, as far as H/9, BB/9, K/9, HR/9, etc.

And, I picked him off waivers, he was even worse for the team that cut him, different park, different defense.

Have a one game lead in my division and playing last series tonight with Lefty set to go in game #162.

Your left-hander Floyd Bannister had a fine year, so, obviously, Carlton is capable of good things. The dice roll differences between the two are somewhat dramatic with regard to batter/hitter ratio. Bannister got rolls in his favor and Carlton didn't.

Carlton faced as many right handers in real life as he did in your league, so, other teams "stacking the deck" isn't an issue, although, it does seem easier to build a roster with many more right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters, which is a big enough deal to turn many left-handers who aren't supreme into batting practice pitchers.

Bannister gives up only 12 hits against both righties and lefties, while Carlton gives up 15 vs righties and 20 vs lefties. So he winds up having a pretty good hits/inn ratio while Carlton winds up giving up too many hits. I just think you have to focus on the card as it is rather than looking at their overall numbers in real baseball and assuming it translates the same in the game. It may not.

Bannister gives up only 12 hits against both righties and lefties, while Carlton gives up 15 vs righties and 20 vs lefties. So he winds up having a pretty good hits/inn ratio while Carlton winds up giving up too many hits. I just think you have to focus on the card as it is rather than looking at their overall numbers in real baseball and assuming it translates the same in the game. It may not.

Bannister's advantage on the card for hit "units" allowed evaporates when the home run is considered. They both cost 5.51m. Bannister had a solid year. Carlton didn't. Batter/pitcher dice rolls ratio difference is the dominant factor in explaining the difference between the seasons of Bannister and Carlton.

I'm not sure the math shows that. The differences in dice rolls--Carlton having 30 more on the hitter's card--probably accounts for about 6 hits. Bannister gave up 2 more bp hrs but was unlucky on bp singles, giving up 5 more bp singles. All that comes to about three more hits given up by Carlton. But he was giving up hits at a rate of about 35 more hits if he pitched as much as Bannister.

Bannister gave up 11 fewer hits than Carlton against lefties and about ten versus righties. And that pretty much jibes with expectations. If you take 650 batters faced, half of them on the pitcher's card, and Carlton gives 2.5 hits more versus righties (3 more hits -.5 for BP homeun difference) per 108 rolls on his pitcher's card you probably expect 7 more hits given up by Carlton against righties. With regard to lefties with 160 bf--and a difference of 8 hits per 108 bf--Probably expect about 6 more hits. That's 13 out of the 21 difference plus the 3 talked about. That's pretty close to the actual difference.

The primary difference was not luck--the bad luck that the hitter got more chances was balanced out by the bad luck Bannister had with regard to ballpark singles--but that Carlton gives up more hits. And he cant afford to do that in a high bp singles park with a mediocre defense. Put him in the Polo Grounds with a good defense...he'll do a lot better.