Has the Secret Formula changed??

One thing I have not heard in this discussion is the fact that 2019 was a VERY Pitcher Dominant year when compared with past years or the sets which were used to create the "Magic Formula". I believe this was debated when the 1969 Season was first rolled out and gamers had to make adjustments because the pitching was vastly superior to the average hitters, in addition to having so many weak hitters or " good glove-no hit" talent throughout the League.

So the question becomes, how do you weaponize your assertion? If you believe pitchers are dominant, do you spend more or less on pitching? Ballpark choices? What kind of offense? If you believe your assertion is correct, but your team underperforms, will you abandon your opinion?

In the end, 60% of the rolls are determined by the hitters card ($48 mil in an $80 mil league), and 40% by the pitchers card ($32 mil in an $80 mil league). Spend your dollars allocated for pitching (generally) in accordance with who’s getting the innings.

The main observation from The Secret Formula is to not waste money, and underperforming teams often spend money in the wrong places. Championship teams do not. If you look at enough teams, this becomes abundantly clear.

** It also goes without saying that you can spend whatever you want wherever you want. There are no absolutes, and The Secret Formula is guidance, not dogma. But you had better know what you’re doing if you are going against the grain. **

I know this is like arguing Physics with Einstein(LOL),but in a pitcher dominant year (2019 with Cole, DeGrom, etc.) I would shift the paradigm to maximize the pitcher/hitter ratio. Not saying I would " flip the apple cart " and spend more money on hulers than batters, but would make an adjustment in the formula by spending an extra $5-10 million on a Mound Corps. Especially if chances of drafting available "Impact Players" are very low.

This is where stadium selection comes into play, where the right ballpark suited to aid the pitcher by eliminating singles and turning home runs into warning track fly outs gives the typical pitcher four to five additional outs to add to the high number of strikeouts he already has to on his card. Couple this concept with the age-old principal of having "1s up the middle on defense" (catcher, keystone, and center) and you are making the most of the defensive dynamic and using the probability of the batter making an out instead of getting on base in your favor.

This is an optimization game. The Secret Formula helps to prevent errors that make it harder to do that. Don't have 1 or 2s up the middle...tends to put too much stress on your pitching staff. Spend too much on pitching, the hitting is too weak (especially in a power park). You can certainly by getting a pitcher's park like Marlins or AT&T, build an elite pitching staff, and get all 1s. The theory is that you can constrict offense enough that you create value. But it does run against the limit that there is a lot of power out there and half the rolls are on the batter's card. I'm not sure that strategy is quite as effective as it was last season, given the power weve seen.

I found a team last year that went counter to this strategy and worked really well. I had cheap pitchers costing around 3 million but I thry didnt give up hits and I had AT&T as my home park. But I had a good defense behind them. So the theory is that the walks they gave up and some power would be alleviated by the very good defense and poor offensive park. And I had them on quick hook with a deep relief staff. THEN I combined that with an offense that was fast (stole a lot of bases--about 230- and advanced on a lot of hits) and had a lot of base power (non bp power) with a lot of doubles power (I think Grichuk had like 23 non bp power hits on his card).

This team went against the grain--did not get expensive starting pitching or high average guys. But it worked. The starting pitchers pitched very well, way above their salary, to help create a sterling 2.92 era with only a 28 million salary. That's creating at least 10 million in value. I'm not sure how much 52 million spent on offense created value but given that they were defensive players I think the offensive concept worked pretty well. Looking at this team I am kind of kicking myself because I think I have been a little too simplistic in my strategies this year a lot of the time.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1532031

RR,

I recently drafted a team where I listed the top seven *SP starters (by price), hoping to build a $40+ mil staff, which can work absolutely fine.

I got one in the autodraft.

So while your observation may be valid, 11 other guys might have the same notions. So there’s that.

FWIW, I kinda saw the same thing you’re talking about, and this was one of my first teams in the new season:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1547118

But I lost the finals to this team:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1546940

I spent $30 mil just on my starters - he spent $20 mil, per smart veteran TSF strategery. You could make the case that with a little more luck I might win out in a replay. But there it is. First loser. Maybe it was because I had all four of my starters set to F3. Or maybe it’s because you can’t win with an all injury team.

Anyway, like freeman said, it’s an optimization game and there are all kinds of ways to create added value. Dominant pitching is just one of those ways.

My best team in the regular season:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/1568592

So much for spending a lot on relief...Holland and James were great bargains and I got a lot from cheap lefties/switches (Pederson/Smith/Sandival/Lastella)

Odds are I'll lose on the first round...and of course posting teams is like talking about trips to Vegas--only the winning teams/trips get talked about! All the losers are never mentioned. Speaking of which Ive had a number of teams that are doing significantly better than the opp in hits, hrs and walks and only playing .500 and/or my record is signifcantly worse than the Pythagorean estimatr. And my play-off record--particularly considering some of the teams Ive had--has been abysmal. It's been a frustrsting year in a lot of respects.

The poor play-off record is getting to be a trend. Are my teams not built for the play-offs? Are there some play-off strategies I dont know about? I mean, I dont really build my team based on match-ups but I havent observed that to be the problem. Who knows?

This team just lost game 7 in semis--but it is a 40M staff--- A 1st for me to make playoffs with more spent on pitching than hitting.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1562569

I'm averaging about 37M on pitching with my playoff teams this year--others that spent less didn't fair as well--although I had one expensive staff team that was particularly poor also.

Another thing to consider when putting your team together is the make-up of your competition. Are they building Power Franchise in Hitters' Parks, or opting to play "small balls" in parks that are stingy on singles with Death Valley outfield, where fly balls go to die????

There are 117 games that directly effect your division.

Your home schedule of 81 games and the 36 games you play on the road within you division. If you are the ONLY team in your division geared toward pitching, but the other three teams are bashing the ball out of tiny bandbox stadiums, you are fighting an uphill battle where you are doomed to fail from the first roll of the dice.

The other 45 games played as the visiting team against your intradivision rivals will be the test to see how you TRULY measure up to the rest of the League, and is a good measuring stick to see how well you might do in post-season play. Again, if you are the lone team top-heavy with pitching, you have led your team to slaughter from Day One.

Because the game is based on mathematical probability, The Secret Formula is just the reverse of the old adage that "good Pitching stops Good Hitting" because the numbers favor the hitter over 60% of the time. I'm just suggesting that the Formula can be tweaked, from time to time, depending on the talent pool available within each particular set.

Because the game is based on mathematical probability, The Secret Formula is just the reverse of the old adage that "good Pitching stops Good Hitting" because the numbers favor the hitter over 60% of the time. I'm just suggesting that the Formula can be tweaked, from time to time, depending on the talent pool available within each particular set.

I don’t think you’re understanding this correctly. The rolls do not favor the hitters. Just because 60% of the outcomes are on the hitters card does not mean the game tilts 60% in favor of hitting. 10% of the outcomes are determined by x-rolls, which are on the hitters cards (and reflected in their salary), but that relates to defense, not offense.

Good pitching will always stop good hitting. Your job as manager is to define what exactly “good” means. It’s different to all of us, but generally you should spend about 40% of your teams’ salary ($32 mil in an $80 mil league) to get there. Nothing any opponent does will change the math on that.

But no matter how good the pitcher EVERY batter has a possible +30 on base, if he can put the ball in play, based on the amount of x-chances on the pitcher's card. Granted an ironclad defense lessens those chances, but 30/108 without counting hits is a good start from the batter's box.