Has the Secret Formula changed??

I was able to crunch the numbers from my previous post and came up with some interesting numbers:

Say a team wins ( best case scenario) two-thirds of the 117 key games at home and within its division, they log 78 wins. All they have to do is break even at .500 in the remaiming 45 intra-division road games to post a 100- win season. Even coming out on top of 60 percent of these contest, they finish with 92 wins which SHOULD garner a playoff berth.

The chance of the first roll is 50/50 (pitchers card/hitters card).

Yes, more offense is generated if the roll comes off the hitters card, more often than not. However, that doesn’t mean there is any inherent advantage in “hitters”, as this is all priced in to the cards. Paying more for hitters comes at the expense of your pitching.

But you are correct in that defense and ball park can mitigate some of that expense. There are a lot of moving parts to consider, just be sure to choose wisely.

I need the secret play-off formula...three 100 win teams this year, havent won a play-off series with any of them (the third one, with 105 wins, lost tonight). Thats a little discouraging.

In the end, 60% of the rolls are determined by the hitters card ($48 mil in an $80 mil league), and 40% by the pitchers card ($32 mil in an $80 mil league). Spend your dollars allocated for pitching (generally) in accordance with who’s getting the innings.

Help me out here because I’m confused. I thought 50% hitter card 50% pitcher card. What am I not getting?

I believe the 60% from the hitters card is the 50-50 roll that goes to them plus the x-rolls on the pitchers card that go back to the hitters defense.

Thanks stoney18

Im a newbieat this but 1 thing Ive noticed..if the rolls are falling for the opposing pithers and hitters..all this dont matter...lol...Ive also noticed unearned runs and big innings where the rolls go in the offensive favor can kill you...doesnt matter who you have..its still a dice game of luck...I understand the goal is to take as much luck out as possible but its still a dice game..Ive seen the same players stink for one owner and win awards for another

unlike real BB it doesnt matter who the pitcher is if the rolls are for the offense in a couple innings you can easily loose...in these leagues the pitchers are obviously facing better hitters but there cards are still scarce for hits and if its not rolling for them it dont matter who the pitcher is...unlike real BB I dont believe good pitching stops good hitting as often..just look at the ERA of most closers in a 80 mil salaray league

You can count them, but there are 30 X chances on each side of each pitcher's card, which then revert to the defender's defensive rating...not exactly the hitter's card, but the point is the same (ie approx 64%/36% hitter/pitcher direct outcomes if you look at it that way)
so on each encounter, there are 216 possible outcomes based on the d6 rolls (108 hitter and 108 pitcher for lefty or righty).
Of the 108 pitcher outcomes on a RH or LH side, 30 are determined by the defense behind them.

SOM creates the cards after iterating a model that reproduces the statistics, within standard variances, if the season were replayed as closely as possible to real life. Same schedule, ballparks, playing time for each player, etc.

You noted a big one, but there are also other major issues not related to the element of a coin flip for selecting a hitter or pitcher card, in my opinion, but note that the system used does recreate the stats if used without adjustment.

But a couple other things stick out too, among many (not including online computer manager quirks and strategy limitations, enhancements for "realism", et al, just basic game engine approach):

- the use of hitter clutch--which is nothing more than a statistical fudge factor to help smooth out the outcome variances on RBIs and usually has limited effect (see your Misc stats and card lookups in PbP results). But it can have a larger effect if the team is slanted heavily one way or the other, depending on the type of team. For instance, a small ball team with lots of OBA and singles/doubles power, will have many situations of RISP with 2 outs. If everyone has high neg clutch, it will impact run production significantly more than it was designed to.

- the fact that every pitcher relies equally upon defenders regardless of the number of balls they get put in play. I'm not a big fan of Sabremetrics, but this is an oversight that seems pretty significant for crippling pitchers who keep well-batted balls minimized.

All that said, it still seems to be the best out there for a long time.

Back to milleram's original question:

.......Is 32M spent on pitching sufficient for the average team now?? ......If the Secret Formula has changed--by how much? 45%-55%? 50%-50%?.......

As I showed in my 6/20 post, the answer to his first question was yes:

I looked at 14 2019 $80M Autoleague Championship teams that began play in March.
They follow the SF for RV allocation.

Pitching - $32.6M (SP - 20.9 RP - 11.7)
Hitting - $46.8
RP's costing < $1.00 - 2.4/team

Posts about the new bullpen rules began appearing in mid-May. I've found 14 other teams that started at that time. They are 2/3 of the way through their seasons. I'll report back on their distribution of funds when Champs are crowned in a month or so. I'll be interested to see if the cheap RP's show a decrease.

I'm reporting back. The answer is still yes. I ended up with 13 teams that started in mid-May in my count.
Here are their averages:

Pitching - $31.3M (SP - 20.1 RP - 11.2)
Hitting - $48.3M
RP's costing < $1.00M - 1.8/team


The RP's < $1.00M decreased. The average number of RP's/team didn't change between the two samples. 5.6 vs. 5.5.
Make of that what you will. Fewer loogy's to combat the new RP rules?

22 of the 27 teams had between $26M and $36.7M allotted to their staff. So as J-Pav stated earlier:

........** It also goes without saying that you can spend whatever you want wherever you want. There are no absolutes, and The Secret Formula is guidance, not dogma. But you had better know what you’re doing if you are going against the grain. **