I dont believe there is any scientific consensus about the death rate because it is so difficult to control for all the variables involved. At this point, given the pressure by the Trump Administration to have all federal agencies conform to its political objectives, information from the CDC is suspect. I would say the best tentative estimates indicate a fatality rate of about .5 to 1% (probably around .5-.6% in the US), assuming that all ages are equally likely to come in contact with it, which is not likely true anymore. That would be far deadlier than the flu which is estimated to typically have .1% fatality rate (but that may be an underestimate because who ever counts asympomatic cases of the flu?)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2I dont think there is any agenda here by governments (other than Trump's obsession at getting reelected at the expense of everything else). Clearly, much like what occurred in the Financial Crisis, large corporations in the US have been able to use their political power to skew bailouts for them as opposed to other segments of society. A lot of the people who have relevant political power are already disposed--being from Wall Street or Big Business--to see things thay way. It's not just the US that locked down--but European countries as well. I mean, if lockdowns were an orchestrated attempt to achieve a political or economic objective it's surprising that they were so widespread or that there has been no evidence presented of any conspiracy. Some people complained bitterly here in California of the lockdown ordered by Newsome but he is reluctant--as is everyone--to go back to total lockdown even while cases grow out of control again.
The problem is that the US has basically--due to Trump being in charge and people thinking that there is some non-existent constitution right to not wear a mask or to not social distance during a pandemic--has been, with the possible exception of Brazil, the absolute worst country in dealing with the virus. Other countries were able to flatten the curve, reopen with precautions...and still keep cases low. We in many places reopened without flattening the curve much...and the cases bounced back. This should cause some deep reflection as to why we have been so darn incompetent.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... -explainedRegardless of what the mortality rate is what should be clear by now (see Wuhan, Northern Italy, Spain, New York, etc.) is that the virus simply will not let a complete return to normalcy. It is contagious and harmful enough that the health care system will break down if precautions are not taken. Treating ICU patients with COVID takes an enormous amount of health provider time--I have read 3 times as much time as other ICU patients. (It is also pertinent that people who go to the hospital and survive are likely going to have significant damage to their lungs and other parts of their body which will have likely have lifelong effects; this too has to be factored in, not just immediate mortality rates)
When infections grow at an exponential rate society cannot continue to function--hospitals are overwhelmed and people get too scared that they will get infected or infect loved ones. So until we get an effective treatment or vaccine, social distancing precautions, wearing masks, and not staying indoors for extended periods in public with other people unless necessary and making sure such places are properly ventilated is essential to keeping the virus in check and allowing our economy to somewhat function. To think otherwise is to ignore lessons bought so expensively in Wuhan, Northern Italy, Spain, New York, etc and to think illogically that such an outbreak will not happen here.
I think that we will have a vaccine and/or effective antibody treatment within six months given the unprecedented world-wide research efforts going on right now (there are more than 100 antibody treatments in development right now). But until then there is no good argument for not taking prudent precautions.
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:51 pm