Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:02 pm
Interesting take.
True enough I don't think anyone knows the "fatigue function" that is applied between F9 and F0. I don't even know if it is clear in the online version if it is all the @ symbols applicable at F8 on down with progressively extreme results to F0, or if it is all result possibilities but only some of the @ symbols with increasing splits for pitcher/hitter card, or if the fatigue system eventually becomes more than just, say the 11 @results on one side of a Maddux card and is almost all pitcher lookups getting reversed by that point.
What I can share anecdotally is I have seen two teams' seasonal data that had overused relief-only pitchers continually coming in at F0 and pitching through F0 every outing. Their splits were much worse than just accounting for @symbol rolls--it was in some long stretches only hitter card splits, which bounced back toward expected coin flips as roster/settings changes were made.
So with that, to each their own. At low caps maybe it is worth it. And maybe it adds an element of uncertainty the same way a manager has to make limited information decisions on whether his pitcher is out of gas. Either way, good luck and if you note any trends, dare to share them!