- Posts: 269
- Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2012 1:23 am
Q: What is clutch in SOM?
A: Clutch rating appears to be SOM's effort to replicate real life RBI results.
Q: Why does it exist?
A: I don't know. It's not like SOM creates a rating to replicate real life runs scored. But it's there.
Q: How is it calculated?
A: SOM clutch rating is not Strat's estimate of real life clutch ability (such as BA with RISP). Strat is a bit cagey about clutch but from what I can tell it appears to be a relationship between the player's OPS and their real life RBI numbers. Therefore, a slugger who hit 34 HR but only drove in 90 runs will have a terrible clutch rating, while a deadballer with a .700 OPS who drove in 80 runs will have an extremely high clutch.
Batting average also appears to be a factor. So Aaron Judge (52 HR, 114 RBI) does not have a clutch penalty as his card is all walks and extra base hits, while the '65 Mays card (52 HR 112 RBI) has a (-13) clutch rating because he has a lot of singles on his card.
At the other end you have Dixie Walker who drove in 124 runs with only 8 HR and about a .800 OPS so he has a +10 rating.
Q: Does SOM factor clutch into player pricing?
A: Who knows, but my guess is minimal. Compare '06 Tinker vs '90 Weiss. Both $1m, same fielding, same injury risk, same speed, Weiss has a higher OPS but Tinker has a huge difference in clutch. So maybe a little.
Q: Does it matter?
A: Debatable. I've had good teams with nearly all negative clutch guys and good teams with all high clutch guys.
If you look at a typical team that is built clutch-indifferent, you're looking at about 20 clutch rolls per season. In theory that should net to 0 additional hits/runs if you have a mix of positive/negative clutch guys.
However... a clutch hit is always going to give you (or take away) a run, and maybe 2 runs if there are runners on 2nd/3rd or the bases are loaded. Therefore, I would roughly estimate each clutch hit is worth +1.3 runs, and each negative clutch out is worth (-1.3) runs.
Also worth noting is the clutch effect on HAL. HAL is acutely aware of clutch, and will often intentionally walk high clutch hitters to get to a lower clutch hitter, even if the next hitter is pretty good. Even if HAL's strategy pays off, that's another out avoided in the lineup, so 2 hitters to get 1 out, giving your better hitters more at bats.
To be continued...
A: Clutch rating appears to be SOM's effort to replicate real life RBI results.
Q: Why does it exist?
A: I don't know. It's not like SOM creates a rating to replicate real life runs scored. But it's there.
Q: How is it calculated?
A: SOM clutch rating is not Strat's estimate of real life clutch ability (such as BA with RISP). Strat is a bit cagey about clutch but from what I can tell it appears to be a relationship between the player's OPS and their real life RBI numbers. Therefore, a slugger who hit 34 HR but only drove in 90 runs will have a terrible clutch rating, while a deadballer with a .700 OPS who drove in 80 runs will have an extremely high clutch.
Batting average also appears to be a factor. So Aaron Judge (52 HR, 114 RBI) does not have a clutch penalty as his card is all walks and extra base hits, while the '65 Mays card (52 HR 112 RBI) has a (-13) clutch rating because he has a lot of singles on his card.
At the other end you have Dixie Walker who drove in 124 runs with only 8 HR and about a .800 OPS so he has a +10 rating.
Q: Does SOM factor clutch into player pricing?
A: Who knows, but my guess is minimal. Compare '06 Tinker vs '90 Weiss. Both $1m, same fielding, same injury risk, same speed, Weiss has a higher OPS but Tinker has a huge difference in clutch. So maybe a little.
Q: Does it matter?
A: Debatable. I've had good teams with nearly all negative clutch guys and good teams with all high clutch guys.
If you look at a typical team that is built clutch-indifferent, you're looking at about 20 clutch rolls per season. In theory that should net to 0 additional hits/runs if you have a mix of positive/negative clutch guys.
However... a clutch hit is always going to give you (or take away) a run, and maybe 2 runs if there are runners on 2nd/3rd or the bases are loaded. Therefore, I would roughly estimate each clutch hit is worth +1.3 runs, and each negative clutch out is worth (-1.3) runs.
Also worth noting is the clutch effect on HAL. HAL is acutely aware of clutch, and will often intentionally walk high clutch hitters to get to a lower clutch hitter, even if the next hitter is pretty good. Even if HAL's strategy pays off, that's another out avoided in the lineup, so 2 hitters to get 1 out, giving your better hitters more at bats.
To be continued...