Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

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Whoopycat

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostSat Nov 14, 2020 10:17 am

Good post and yes this is kind of my thoughts exactly. High OPS combined with high clutch can make a difference.

Fun fact: somebody mentioned most of the pool has negative clutch. True. The average clutch rating of an ATG player is (-2.5).

Again, you can win with clutch and win without clutch, and you can win without thinking about clutch. But if you want to make it a factor, it can definitely be one.

One big question on the value of clutch is how much clutch factors into the pricing model. Using the Tinker/Weiss example I posted above, I would think it does factor into pricing. Also staying with the SS example all the of the good glove/no offense SS such as Guillen, McMillan, Crosetti, Fernandez, etc all have terrible clutch and all had their prices slashed. Again, you compare Tinker and '39 Crosetti, OPS is about equal, Crosetti is bulletproof with better D and is almost the same price as Tinker. So maybe SOM has increased the price of clutch for ATG9?

I've got a Williams/Snider team wrapping up next week, I'll post it soon.
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FrankieT

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostMon Nov 16, 2020 8:17 pm

Whoopycat wrote:[...]
Also worth noting is the clutch effect on HAL. HAL is acutely aware of clutch, and will often intentionally walk high clutch hitters to get to a lower clutch hitter, even if the next hitter is pretty good. Even if HAL's strategy pays off, that's another out avoided in the lineup, so 2 hitters to get 1 out, giving your better hitters more at bats.


I think this is an important point for lineup construction at a lower cap or a heavily imbalanced team with stars and scrubs.

It makes a huge difference for HAL--he WILL walk a better hitter to get to the lesser hitter if the lesser hitter has negative clutch. IBBs are a key stat I track but I think it would be nice if it were tracked on the roster page instead of just the leaders' stats.
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childsmwc

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostTue Nov 17, 2020 6:05 pm

I can confirm that pricing does incorporate clutch and as this thread has pointed out, since a clutch hit always has at least 1 run on the line +/- the impacts are layered on as an incremental value to the traditional RC formula used for pricing the cards.

Also as this threads highlights the impacts of clutch on a full season is only 4 or 5 events max, but if those are all runs that could work out to several $100k in pricing impacts for a card +/-.
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13Baseballs

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostTue Nov 17, 2020 11:04 pm

OK... I have been playing SOM for many years... never really looked into the clutch factor... after reading this post and looking at some of the players cards y'all are mentioning... the 1948-Ted Williams card (7-8 diamonds on each side and a +10 clutch rating)... what are y’all looking at? Where is the 708 diamond and the clutch rating? Where is this info located at? Since I do not know this, is probably the reason my teams suck.. lol
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FrankieT

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostWed Nov 18, 2020 7:31 am

In the online card image, the diamond is a $. Which he has in column 2 on a 7 and 9 vs L, and a 5 and 7 vs R.
So that's +10 chances each side because those dollar signs reverse an out.
It would be -10 clutch each side if they were in front of (ie reversing) a hit result like a SINGLE**. It is always one or the other if any clutch is present on the card--never are there $ in front of hits and outs simultaneously on one side of the card.

Maybe I am assuming too much--forgive me but just in case...
the chances to roll those numbers on the two 6-sided dice are:

2 - 1 chance
3 - 2 chances
4 - 3 chances
5 - 4 chances
6 - 5 chances
7 - 6 chances
8 - 5 chances
9 - 4 chances
10 - 3 chances
11 - 2 chances
12 - 1 chance

cheers
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13Baseballs

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostWed Nov 18, 2020 2:59 pm

FrankieT... got it... never understood what people were looking at or how they figured what the chances were... thanks for the info...
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Sox040713

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostFri Nov 20, 2020 11:57 am

I'll never understand how Derek Jeter was not considered clutch. He ripped my heart out more times than I can remember.
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Whoopycat

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostSat Nov 21, 2020 12:21 pm

Here is my clutch team that just wrapped built around Williams and Snider:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1602504

All starters with at least +8 clutch except for the bulletproof Ty Cobb card leading off with a +5 clutch. Team scored over 1000 runs in Yankee 71, not too shabby.

Key stats:
45 clutch hits... I'd estimate that works out to +58 runs over the course of the season. Plus just like a fielding error it extends innings where you are expecting an out.

Ted Williams had a monster year but only 2 clutch hits. He was however intentionally walked 14 times batting in front of Roger Connor (+13 clutch), who led the team with 11 clutch hits. Duke Snider was his usual self batting cleanup with 178 RBI and 6 clutch hits.

Every starter after Cobb had at least 75 RBI.

I'll probably lose in playoffs but if so it was still a very fun team.
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FrankieT

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Re: Anybody want to discuss clutch rating?

PostWed Nov 25, 2020 9:57 am

very cool team
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