Moneyball Baseball League Chat

Take Tim Anderson from my team. He is arb3 in 2021. I will have to sign him to at least 5 years at the top 25% for shortstops likely around 7-8 mil per season. Instead, what if I release him and go after him in next year's FA period. How much competition is there likely to be? I'm guessing 7 or 8 teams will have no interest cause they're already set at SS. How many of the others will be willing to go as high as it will take to stop me from getting him? I'm not sure, but even if it costs me 5 or 6mil per, I've come out ahead. And maybe I can sign him to a 3 yr deal instead of the 5 years I would have had to. Plus I'll know how he's done in 2021 to help in deciding how badly I want him back.

I don't see this as a problem. If you waive Anderson, which I'd be tempted to do, you are risking him having an outstanding season in 2021, in which case there would probably be some strong interest in him in the offseason next winter. This seems to me to be exactly the kind of difficult decision GMs have to make in the real world all the time. The real question you are facing is if Anderson is a top tier SS worth top dollar and a five year commitment? Is he breaking out, or is he peaking? It will probably cost you around $40 mil over five years to lock him up.

There are a lot of MLB teams trying to build rosters around short term contracts, including my beloved Orioles. I'm not sure you can win without building a core of superstars providing consistency over years. The best way to do that is through the draft and by taking advantage of the arbitration rules, but we know how difficult that can be. If a GM wants to try to build a team through free agency and short term contracts, best of luck to him. Time will tell if this is a viable strategy. It may be possible given that we have ~950+ carded players to fill 480 roster spots, but I don't think it would work given the salary structure and contract rules of this league. It will be that more difficult if we expand the prospect draft.

Philip

What about the players that made their debuts in 2020 but had fewer than 50 AB/30 IP and therefore don't qualify as free agents? Will they be prospect eligible for the upcoming prospect draft or are they in limbo until they qualify for free agency by getting the required AB/IP in a future season?

Okay, so here are the final rules for the prospect and free agent eligibility questions we have been kicking about. The original rules for prospect eligibility were

Prospects are defined as any player who has signed a contract with an MLB organization but who has no MLB experience prior to the start of the current MLB season. [Note, this means that players with no MLB experience prior to the 2020 MLB season, but who are carded in the SOM 2020 season, are still considered prospects and not free agents for the purpose of our annual prospect draft].

The original rules for free agent eligibility were:

Unsigned carded players from the previous SOM 365 season, and players with more than 6 years of service time and an expiring contract, are eligible for free agency. In addition, MLB players who were uncarded the previous SOM 365 season, and who had at least 50 at bats or 30 innings pitched during the current MLB season, will be eligible for free agency. [Note, this means that players with no MLB experience prior to the 2020 MLB season, but who are carded in the SOM 2020 season, are still considered prospects and not free agents for the purpose of our annual prospect draft]. If you sign a player and SOM either does not produce a card for that player, or produces an unleashed card, you are still responsible for their contract.

This means that any players who debuted during the 2020 MLB season are prospects.

What if they have get a SOM card for the 2020 season? The 40 man roster rule, and the player cut rule, means that you will only be able to use that player during season 2 after releasing players prior to the supplemental FA signing period.

This part of the FA eligibility rule--" In addition, MLB players who were uncarded the previous SOM 365 season, and who had at least 50 at bats or 30 innings pitched during the current MLB season, will be eligible for free agency."--addresses the small number of players who had unleased cards in 2019. They were intended to be treated as FA and not prospects for the following season, but to be FA they need to be very likely to produce a SOM card, hence the AB and IP qualifiers.

So, in summary, any signed MLB player who debuted in 2020, or who has yet to debut in MLB, is considered to be a prospect. Any carded prospects who are drafted after the FA signing period will be ineligible to play in season 1 due to the roster rules, but may be promoted between season 1 and season 2.

I hope this clarifies the prospect and free agency eligibility rules.

Here is a list of pitchers who debuted in 2020. Some have already been drafted as prospects last spring.

Name
Albert Abreu
Keegan Akin
Ian Anderson
Tejay Antone
Dakota Bacus
Brandon Bailey
Caleb Baragar
Jeremy Beasley
Wes Benjamin
Phil Bickford
Brandon Bielak
Scott Blewett
Ben Braymer
Connor Brogdon
JT Brubaker
Kris Bubic
Zack Burdi
Beau Burrows
Daniel Castano
Ryan Castellani
Humberto Castellanos
Anthony Castro
Blake Cederlind
Garrett Cleavinger
Kyle Cody
Edwar Colina
Nabil Crismatt
Garrett Crochet
Wil Crowe
Jesus Cruz
Tucker Davidson
Tommy Doyle
Dane Dunning
Seth Elledge
Santiago Espinal
Demarcus Evans
J.P. Feyereisen
Kyle Finnegan
Josh Fleming
Aaron Fletcher
Bernardo Flores Jr.
Matt Foster
Kyle Funkhouser
Deivi Garcia
Luis Garcia
Rony Garcia
Braxton Garrett
Joey Gerber
Victor Gonzalez
Ashton Goudeau
Foster Griffin
Jorge Guzman
Kyle Hart
Tom Hatch
Carlos Hernandez
Codi Heuer
Cam Hill
Jordan Holloway
Tanner Houck
Spencer Howard
Cristian Javier
Daulton Jefferies
Dany Jimenez
Rob Kaminsky
James Kaprielian
Franklyn Kilome
Kwang Hyun Kim
John King
Dean Kremer
Brooks Kriske
Jimmy Lambert
Brandon Leibrandt
Robinson Leyer
Mauricio Llovera
Brailyn Marquez
Triston McKenzie
Nick Mears
Adonis Medina
Humberto Mejia
Julian Merryweather
Tyson Miller
Anthony Misiewicz
Casey Mize
Jose Mujica
Patrick Murphy
Nick Neidert
Kyle Nelson
Nick Nelson
Ljay Newsome
Johan Oviedo
Enoli Paredes
Luis Patino
Nate Pearson
Angel Perdomo
Hector Perez
David Peterson
Cody Ponce
Johan Quezada
Roel Ramirez
Yohan Ramirez
Drew Rasmussen
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Trevor Rogers
JoJo Romero
Seth Romero
Ramon Rosso
Carlos Sanabria
Ricardo Sanchez
Sixto Sanchez
Antonio Santos
Clarke Schmidt
Max Schrock
Andre Scrubb
Sterling Sharp
Brady Singer
Tarik Skubal
Riley Smith
Jonathan Stiever
Domingo Tapia
Blake Taylor
Ryan Thompson
Justin Topa
Alex Vesia
Brandon Waddell
Jordan Weems
Patrick Weigel
Mitch White
Kodi Whitley
Taylor Widener
Jake Woodford
Miguel Yajure
Shun Yamaguchi
Bruce Zimmermann
Tyler Zuber

Here is a list of hitters who debuted in 2020. Some have already been drafted as prospects last spring.

Name
Albert Abreu
Jo Adell
Keegan Akin
Shogo Akiyama
Sergio Alcantara
Eddy Alvarez
Ian Anderson
Tejay Antone
Sherten Apostel
Jonathan Arauz
Dakota Bacus
Brandon Bailey
Caleb Baragar
Joey Bart
Luis Alexander Basabe
Jeremy Beasley
Wes Benjamin
Phil Bickford
Brandon Bielak
Travis Blankenhorn
Scott Blewett
Alec Bohm
Ben Braymer
Connor Brogdon
JT Brubaker
Kris Bubic
Zack Burdi
Beau Burrows
Daz Cameron
Luis Campusano
Dylan Carlson
Daniel Castano
Ryan Castellani
Humberto Castellanos
Anthony Castro
Blake Cederlind
Jazz Chisholm
Garrett Cleavinger
Kyle Cody
Edwar Colina
William Contreras
Will Craig
Nabil Crismatt
Garrett Crochet
Jake Cronenworth
Wil Crowe
Jesus Cruz
Bobby Dalbec
Tucker Davidson
Lewin Diaz
Tommy Doyle
Dane Dunning
Seth Elledge
Santiago Espinal
Demarcus Evans
J.P. Feyereisen
Kyle Finnegan
Josh Fleming
Aaron Fletcher
Bernardo Flores Jr.
Estevan Florial
Matt Foster
Kyle Funkhouser
Deivi Garcia
José García
Luis Garcia
Luis Garcia
Rony Garcia
Braxton Garrett
Joey Gerber
Andres Gimenez
Luis Gonzalez
Victor Gonzalez
Ashton Goudeau
Foster Griffin
Jorge Guzman
Monte Harrison
Kyle Hart
Tom Hatch
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Nick Heath
Jonah Heim
Carlos Hernandez
Yadiel Hernández
Codi Heuer
Cam Hill
Derek Hill
Jordan Holloway
Tanner Houck
Spencer Howard
Sam Huff
Cristian Javier
Daulton Jefferies
Ryan Jeffers
Dany Jimenez
Daniel Johnson
Jahmai Jones
Taylor Jones
Rob Kaminsky
James Kaprielian
Franklyn Kilome
Kwang Hyun Kim
John King
Alejandro Kirk
Dean Kremer
Brooks Kriske
Jimmy Lambert
Brandon Leibrandt
Robinson Leyer
Mauricio Llovera
Vimael Machin
Nick Madrigal
Rafael Marchan
Jose Marmolejos
Brailyn Marquez
Jorge Mateo
Mark Mathias
Wyatt Mathisen
Joe McCarthy
Triston McKenzie
Zach McKinstry
Nick Mears
Adonis Medina
Humberto Mejia
Yermin Mercedes
Julian Merryweather
Tyson Miller
Anthony Misiewicz
Casey Mize
Mickey Moniak
Ryan Mountcastle
Jose Mujica
Patrick Murphy
Brian Navarreto
Nick Neidert
Kyle Nelson
Nick Nelson
Ljay Newsome
John Nogowski
Joseph Odom
Jared Oliva
Edward Olivares
Jorge Oña
Johan Oviedo
Cristian Pache
Enoli Paredes
Isaac Paredes
Luis Patino
Mark Payton
Nate Pearson
Angel Perdomo
Hector Perez
David Peterson
Cody Ponce
Johan Quezada
Roel Ramirez
Yohan Ramirez
Drew Rasmussen
Luis Robert
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Trevor Rogers
JoJo Romero
Seth Romero
Brent Rooker
Ramon Rosso
Keibert Ruiz
Carlos Sanabria
Ali Sanchez
Jesus Sanchez
Ricardo Sanchez
Sixto Sanchez
Antonio Santos
Clarke Schmidt
Max Schrock
Andre Scrubb
Sterling Sharp
Brady Singer
Tarik Skubal
Pavin Smith
Riley Smith
Elliot Soto
Tyler Stephenson
Jonathan Stiever
Domingo Tapia
Leody Taveras
Blake Taylor
Anderson Tejeda
Ryan Thompson
Justin Topa
Chadwick Tromp
Yoshi Tsutsugo
Ramon Urias
Daulton Varsho
Alex Vesia
Brandon Waddell
Jordan Weems
Patrick Weigel
Eli White
Evan White
Mitch White
Aaron Whitefield
Kodi Whitley
Taylor Widener
Jake Woodford
Miguel Yajure
Shun Yamaguchi
Andy Young
Bruce Zimmermann
Tyler Zuber

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sociophil

Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 4:00 pm
Re: Moneyball Baseball League Chat
PostMon Nov 30, 2020 10:49 pm

Section 3.03 Prospect Eligibility: Prospects are defined as any player who has signed a contract with an MLB organization but who has no MLB experience prior to the start of the current MLB season [Note, this means that players with no MLB experience prior to the 2020 MLB season, but who are carded in the SOM 2020 season, are still considered prospects and not free agents for the purpose of our annual prospect draft].


Section 10.2 Free Agent Eligibility:
Unsigned carded players from the previous SOM 365 season, and players with more than 6 years of service time and an expiring contract, are eligible for free agency. In addition, MLB players who were uncarded the previous SOM 365 season, and who had at least 50 at bats or 30 innings pitched during the current MLB season, will be eligible for free agency.


I think the problem with the rules as I originally wrote them was the lack of clarity about which SOM and MLB seasons I was referring to when writing them. I think the best way to interpret these rules is to say that prospects are players with no experience prior to the start of the UPCOMING MLB season (ie. 2021), and that any rookie from the previous MLB season (2020) with 30 or more IP or 50 or more AB is a free agent. We can then adjust the number of prospects drafted in the future to limit the number of free agent rookies in future seasons. I'm inclined to stick with the current qualifications rather than prorating them.

These are the rookie pitchers who would qualify:

David Peterson
Cristian Javier
Brady Singer
Tejay Antone
Josh Fleming
Kwang Hyun Kim
Triston McKenzie
Kris Bubic
Deivi Garcia
Ryan Castellani
Dane Dunning
JT Brubaker
Brandon Bielak

These are the rookie hitters:

Shogo Akiyama
Jonathan Arauz
Alec Bohm
Daz Cameron
Jazz Chisholm
Jake Cronenworth
Bobby Dalbec
Santiago Espinal
José García
Luis Garcia
Andres Gimenez
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ryan Jeffers
Vimael Machin
Jose Marmolejos
Ryan Mountcastle
Edward Olivares
Isaac Paredes
Luis Robert
Leody Taveras
Anderson Tejeda
Chadwick Tromp
Yoshi Tsutsugo
Daulton Varsho
Evan White


Thoughts?

Philip




SO THESE RULES DO NOT APPLY...CORRECT

Take Tim Anderson from my team. He is arb3 in 2021. I will have to sign him to at least 5 years at the top 25% for shortstops likely around 7-8 mil per season. Instead, what if I release him and go after him in next year's FA period. How much competition is there likely to be? I'm guessing 7 or 8 teams will have no interest cause they're already set at SS. How many of the others will be willing to go as high as it will take to stop me from getting him? I'm not sure, but even if it costs me 5 or 6mil per, I've come out ahead. And maybe I can sign him to a 3 yr deal instead of the 5 years I would have had to. Plus I'll know how he's done in 2021 to help in deciding how badly I want him back.

I don't see this as a problem. If you waive Anderson, which I'd be tempted to do, you are risking him having an outstanding season in 2021, in which case there would probably be some strong interest in him in the offseason next winter. This seems to me to be exactly the kind of difficult decision GMs have to make in the real world all the time. The real question you are facing is if Anderson is a top tier SS worth top dollar and a five year commitment? Is he breaking out, or is he peaking? It will probably cost you around $40 mil over five years to lock him up.

There are a lot of MLB teams trying to build rosters around short term contracts, including my beloved Orioles. I'm not sure you can win without building a core of superstars providing consistency over years. The best way to do that is through the draft and by taking advantage of the arbitration rules, but we know how difficult that can be. If a GM wants to try to build a team through free agency and short term contracts, best of luck to him. Time will tell if this is a viable strategy. It may be possible given that we have ~950+ carded players to fill 480 roster spots, but I don't think it would work given the salary structure and contract rules of this league. It will be that more difficult if we expand the prospect draft.

Philip

Sounds good. Just wanted to make sure there was no objections if I try doing it this way.

Section 3.03 Prospect Eligibility: Prospects are defined as any player who has signed a contract with an MLB organization but who has no MLB experience prior to the start of the current MLB season [Note, this means that players with no MLB experience prior to the 2020 MLB season, but who are carded in the SOM 2020 season, are still considered prospects and not free agents for the purpose of our annual prospect draft].


Section 10.2 Free Agent Eligibility:
Unsigned carded players from the previous SOM 365 season, and players with more than 6 years of service time and an expiring contract, are eligible for free agency. In addition, MLB players who were uncarded the previous SOM 365 season, and who had at least 50 at bats or 30 innings pitched during the current MLB season, will be eligible for free agency.

SO THESE RULES DO NOT APPLY...CORRECT

@Paul: We haven't voted to change the rules, so they stand. It means that any player who debuted in 2020, regardless of their future card status, is a prospect. If you draft a prospect who ends up with a card, you'd have to wait until the supplemental free agent signing period to promote that player to your 40 man roster. Any player who debuted in MLB before 2020 but who never received a SOM card is an eligible free agent. Under these rules, Randy Arozarena is a free agent but Alec Bohm is a prospect.

Here is a list of PROSPECTS who debuted in 2020 and who are very likely to be carded. The list may include previously drafted players, like Ke'Bryan Hayes and Nick Madrigal.

Hitter Name
Alec Bohm
Anderson Tejeda
Andres Gimenez
Bobby Dalbec
Chadwick Tromp
Daulton Varsho
Daz Cameron
Dylan Carlson
Edward Olivares
Evan White
Isaac Paredes
Jake Cronenworth
Jazz Chisholm
Jo Adell
Joey Bart
Jonathan Arauz
José García
Jose Marmolejos
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Leody Taveras
Luis Garcia
Luis Robert
Nick Madrigal
Ryan Jeffers
Ryan Mountcastle
Santiago Espinal
Shogo Akiyama
Vimael Machin
Yoshi Tsutsugo

Pitcher Name
Ian Anderson
Tejay Antone
Brandon Bielak
JT Brubaker
Kris Bubic
Ryan Castellani
Dane Dunning
Josh Fleming
Deivi Garcia
Cristian Javier
Kwang Hyun Kim
Triston McKenzie
David Peterson
Sixto Sanchez
Brady Singer
Tarik Skubal

mykbr1 trade offer sent

Please check your rosters (both the league and individual team rosters) to make sure they are accurate. I had neglected to update the league roster for some teams.

sociophil