Alternate Names/Accounts

"I'm not a statistician but I've managed to do a couple regressions in Excel (I have trouble with LINEST sometimes though, can't always get it to work). The one I can think of off the top of my head is I regressed how different parks affect the run environment. So I start with the average run environment for a given cap/DH, and then I'm able to tell it my park (and my average away park) and it adjusts the run environment up or down accordingly. Surprisingly BP singles have a slightly bigger coefficient than BP homers, which I never would've guessed. I then use that run environment to customize my run expectancy matrix and wOBA coefficients. Then I use those to get my WAR values. Identifying which players correspond to good teams would be an interesting regression experiment but I'm not sure it would be more precise than the values I get from just counting the cards using my version of Pelletier's system.

In truth there's a lot more I could be doing with the data. The main things I've used it for so far are determining run environments for different parks and caps, and determining popularity of players at each cap, i.e., what % of leagues is a player rostered in at a given cap. But the player card values are just derived from Diamond Dope."

Really interesting, I appreciate you sharing. Are the T-stat significant in your regressions? I would assume 500 is enough data for there to actually be a meaningful relationship.

I really like your concept of identifying which players at which caps have been used the most. That seems like a very simply and intuitive approach to narrowing down the player set. I suspect that would work on both the hitter and pitching side. I would think the next level would then be to maximize those players by the proper park. Again really interesting.

As I mentioned early, without delegating this to an analyst it will have to be my retirement project. Do you use Python to scrap or R or some other language. Curious if you like one better than another.

D

Darn it, I thought the secret was drafting Bobby Wallace.

I'm proud to be The Rivs and what I stand for as a manager.......just sayin' i wouldn't give up my name here for any reason, certainly not a discount or momentary advantage. it's like Jimmy Foxx playing under a different name. grow up. have some self respect. additionally, I crack up at the copycat thing, it don't work. play your guys, play your game. believe me I am fascinated by the stuff you do. I love the thread, but it kills me, I am grateful I win at all. I feel most times like I am playing against cards i'd be embarrassed to win with, so I never pick them. but I play from a historian's perspective, with enormous love of the game. If I won with Bonds though, i'd feel like it was tainted, that's just me. Nev once famously asked me, "don't you wanna win?" not without my guys.....you know'em. Love this thread, keep the faith.

So the truth is finally revealed. You all win by stealing my players

I'm proud to be The Rivs and what I stand for as a manager....

As you should be -
But of course, I know you from playing in a bunch of leagues with you- and it would be crappy to have you in a league where you pretended not to know me ( I mean for reasons other than me being embarrassing to be seen with)

I enjoy this game and love to play the game and learn. While what I am about to say may offend you (austinmdavidson) if have have to do things that way to win I don't want to do it. To me it takes most of the fun out of the game and the learning process. I play this game to have fun and enjoy some banter and camaraderie with other baseball fans. If winning becomes more important to me than the actual enjoyment of the game, I guess I would stop playing. I started out with somewhere around a .450 winning percentage, tried to compete against the big dogs like Last Druid, NomadBrad and many others. In the beginning I mostly got skull drug. I asked questions and sought those guys advice. They have always been gracious and patient in answering my questions. I have the utmost respect for them. Through trial and error (my own) and their advice I have quickly gotten to the point where I can stand toe to toe with most of them, I was competing at least compete and even win sometimes. Not too long ago I was competing in the finals against one of the Legends. It came down to game 7...I lost, but before game 7 he gave me perhaps the best compliment I could hope to obtain. He said "either way game 7 goes you have become a formidable opponent in Strat". That made my day. At the moment I have built myself up to a .504 winning percentage, which I am proud of, probably play over 50% of my teams on credits I have won/earned.

I suppose I could have had greater success sooner had I used your methods. I have the intellgemce and technical skill to do so. But honestly, the feeling of accomplishment I get from experiencing failure and success, learning the game and experimenting with the cards, would be completely different and much more hollow had I done it. I would SO MUCH rahter succeeding by experience than by artifical means (obviously not illegal, but a shortcut no doubt). I am not MAD at you nor do I harbor animosity toward your success. I just could never conceive of that rationale for success.

My guess is you are probably younger than me, probably weren't an athlete. Athletes have a drive to compete and succeed in ways that only come from personal hard work. The stat geeks in charge of major league baseball these days have ruined the game and destroyed the beauty of it. Kinda like you're doing. More power to you, if that's what you need to succeed.

One last note, don't break your arm patting yourself on the back for your success, and don't let your jaw get sore bragging about it.

Just one man's opinion

Good luck Austin, may you have continued success.

Coach

Well said Paul!

Well said indeed, Coach. Always glad to see you in a league - keeps things competitive!

Wow. Avoid the boards for a few weeks and miss a bunch of fun.

We got classic handles with special appearances to make special smackdowns, blocked assholes, and then a full circle poetic old-school owning by coach that goes from nostalgia to tech shaming to nerd bashing.

As SteveF said--pretty entertaining stuff!

Cheers

As someone who just started playing 365 a couple of months ago, I inadvertently used my real name. Is there a way to change it, or am I stuck with it unless I create a new account?

As someone who just started playing 365 a couple of months ago, I inadvertently used my real name. Is there a way to change it, or am I stuck with it unless I create a new account?

email support at 365 - not sure what they will do or not,
just be prepared for 'please hold, your email is very important to us, you are number _____________ in the queue'