Fixed Patterns Run this Game

Discuss different strategies for any of our player sets

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freeman

  • Posts: 922
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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostSat Dec 12, 2020 3:59 pm

I have been in a good number of leagues with Danno...so heres some teams to dissect.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1608164
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1605234
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1580764
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danno

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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostSat Dec 12, 2020 6:05 pm

As usual, some of you ding dongs are missing the point.

The point ISN'T wins or losses. The issue are mathematical patterns. It is the pattern that PROVES that SOM places a bias on user names. That bias can either be by random, programmed or with intent.

The only way to disprove my theory is by going over your team performance day by day for several weeks. For most of you, you will see a pattern of W v L.

I know some of you are as dense as a jersey block but try to follow me here.

If you are playing 10 leagues, what are your chances of EVERY team winning or losing on any given day? Not only do they win or lose but it is the same margin for every team. I.E. W2 L1, W2 L1, W2 L1, etc. The chances of that happening on ANY ONE PLAYING DAY are astronomical and yet, there will be a pattern of this happening for weeks on end. I.E., every 3 or 4 days your team either all W or all L with the same margin. THAT is a mathematical pattern set by program bias.

These discussions are interesting because it brings out patterns of human behavior. There are those of you who absolutely refuse to accept proof that there are patterns of bias incorporated within this game. You attack the messenger by using the most nonsensical idiotic arguments. I have never said that I am a good SOM 365 player. After 100 leagues, I believe that my record is poor but that's not the point. The point isn't about my record. The point is about SOM CHEATING by placing a user name bias on select players. Either some will always win or some will always lose. It's that simple.

FYI. The best solution to this problem was brought up by player TOSHIRO. He suggested logging off and coming back under another user name. There are some here who do that for several reasons. When you do that, you have to use a different credit card. That still isn't a fool proof method of doing away with user bias.

Let me explain one last thing to some of you block heads. It's not that hard to hack into SOM computer base. Let me give you an example.

I work for a major company that uses a computer program to determine our monthly schedule. That schedule is seniority based. There are bias' incorporated within the program to award a schedule in order of seniority. Of course, these things are highly scrutinized by employee's and our union. I was part of a team that caught several very junior employee's hacking into our BIG BUCK HIGHLY SOPHISTICATED computer. All three of these idiots were being awarded top schedules that only a senior employee would get. We caught them and let them ride for several months. We had to do this to allow a PATTERN of cheating to be exposed. That pattern was required as proof of wrong doing. All three were terminated.

My point is that computer patterns are part of all programing and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to hack into some computer systems. It happens all of the time. For some of you dolts denying this proves what clueless jackasses that you truly are.

Dan
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Bballexec

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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostSat Dec 12, 2020 8:22 pm

I am not sure looking at the W-L pattern of your teams is all that useful. There are only four possible outcomes each day. They are 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 0-3. The 3-0 and the 0-3 are a lot less frequent. So mostly teams will go 2-1 or 1-2. To have all your teams go one way or other does really mean that much since they are generally going to be one or the other.

We humans see patterns in everything even where none exist. People think there are patterns in flipping a coin and getting heads or tails. You could get heads 10-100 times in a row and it does not change the odds of the next flip, which are still 50/50.

As I have said in other posts. In a game based on random numbers anything that can happen, will happen given enough dice rolls.

To me the key to the game is to find the cards that give you the most favorable outcomes for your ballpark. Given the salary cap the competition is pretty balanced. But I have only just started my 16th league.
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freeman

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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostSat Dec 12, 2020 8:30 pm

The point is that you arent proving what youre saying. A few supposed anecdotal examples mean nothing (you dont even provide evidence for that) . You need to put out an example of a pattern that couldnt happen from randomess. Link to your teams to support your claims. Then we could evaluate your claims. It's up to you to prove what youre saying; not us.

And you need to tone down the insults if you want to keep posting. That post is in violation of Strat policy.

You have alleged before that certain teams are favored and thats why you cant win. That you had talked to top-level players and they did not know anything. Now, if you were a really good really player and werent winning then that would support your claim. However, youre not a good player so your lack of winning can be explained by that alone without going into conspiracy theories.

It's not that we're dismissing your claims out of hand because our ego is tied up in having a decent Strat record. Big whoop. It's just that youre attacking the game without evidence. And it's not fair to Strat to make such claims without strong evidence, is it?
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CirrhoticLiver

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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostWed Jul 28, 2021 1:41 pm

I just discovered this post and being a fan of statistics I thought I'd run some quick probabilities of having 7 teams all go 1-2 on the same night.

If all 7 teams are average - .500 clubs - the chance of each one going 1-2 is 37.5%, so the chance of 7 going exactly 1-2 on the same night is 0.375 to the 7th power, or 1 in 959. Could happen, but if it happens multiple times in a short time span, seems to support the bias theory...

except...

If your teams all are crappy - .400 clubs - the chance of each one going 1-2 is 43.2%, so the chance of 7 going 1-2 is 0.432 to the 7th power, or 1 in 356. Still fairly low, but would be expected to happen occasionally. So if it happens to you with 7 teams regularly, I'd venture to guess your teams are pretty crappy...

Also, if you're wondering... for the average clubs, the chance of all 7 having a losing night (0 or 1 wins) is 0.5 to the 7th power, or 1 in 128. I think we've all had that happen, to great frustration, on occasion...
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Danchiacchia

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Re: Fixed Patterns Run this Game

PostSat Jul 31, 2021 4:25 pm

CirrhoticLiver wrote:I just discovered this post and being a fan of statistics I thought I'd run some quick probabilities of having 7 teams all go 1-2 on the same night.

If all 7 teams are average - .500 clubs - the chance of each one going 1-2 is 37.5%, so the chance of 7 going exactly 1-2 on the same night is 0.375 to the 7th power, or 1 in 959. Could happen, but if it happens multiple times in a short time span, seems to support the bias theory...

except...

If your teams all are crappy - .400 clubs - the chance of each one going 1-2 is 43.2%, so the chance of 7 going 1-2 is 0.432 to the 7th power, or 1 in 356. Still fairly low, but would be expected to happen occasionally. So if it happens to you with 7 teams regularly, I'd venture to guess your teams are pretty crappy...

Also, if you're wondering... for the average clubs, the chance of all 7 having a losing night (0 or 1 wins) is 0.5 to the 7th power, or 1 in 128. I think we've all had that happen, to great frustration, on occasion...


All I know is no matter the quality of my team, when I play on the road at Polo Grounds ‘41, I almost inevitably get swept in gut wrenching fashion haha.
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