Only in this STUPID game ...

5) Run differential modifier. Still gathering data on this, but in the past 6 months I have had a large number of teams be either lead the league in run differential (or be 2nd) and not even make the playoffs. The number of series where I have had these kind of results has increased significantly--- my team loses games like 2-3, 3-4 and then wins one game in the series 17-1. Yes, this kind of skewed result can certainly happen normally now and then, but when it happens on a regular basis, red flags go up. I am in the process of gathering data on the number of series where this factor has come into play.

Been playing this game since ATG 1 and those who know me, know that I have long been a conspiracy theorist. And I pretty much agree with all of them. But your point about Run Differential is spot on. My teams are almost always top 1 or 2 in run differential in nearly every league I play (yes because of the types of teams I typically build) and yet my championship % isn't nearly where it "should" be.

Perfect example: I have two leagues finishing up tonight where I have the best R/D in the leagues:

In one league I will likely end up playing the #1 seed despite having a Pythagorean record 15 games better than the other division winner who holds the tie breaker against me for the #2 seed.

And in the other league I might miss the playoffs altogether despite having a Pythagorean Record 15 games better than the team I am tied with right now.

So yeah ... I believe there is something going on behind the curtain and no one will convince me to the contrary.

None of that would explain why they would bother to code a "momentum" black box. Momentum barely even exists in real life, it's mostly made up by commentators to create narratives out of chaos.

It's funny, you are so certain that they would never take the time to write that code.

Yet if they actually did as so many people (including me by the way) remember being stated/admitted, wouldn't your statement actually work against you ... That they wouldn't bother to take it back out???

Truth. The normalization intention is not exactly folklore. It's not quite biblical canon, but it isn't myth and legend either. No, there isn't some dude pulling strings on particular managers. But there has been in the past an effort toward "realism"...in a computer simulation game, ironically.

Just look at the effort in BPv3 to kill "unrealistic" relief pitching use....which of course was not a minor effort, and did not add realism to pitching.

One more thing...compare the TSN playing experience to SOM Inc and it is no comparison. They may not be advanced digital marketers, but they aren't incompetents. Now TSN, that was the days of wondering if your games would even get played some nights, with the aforementioned Bernie pushing out apologies and updates to the boards.

Not anymore. It is rare to have operational downtime, so I have to give them some credit after seeing what it was before.

Well, our dear friend Max Power is not too popular here. I actually like his spirit and gumption, and he's very talented, seems like a nice guy. True, he's got a high winning percentage on this recent handle, but I'm afraid he's likely played before under other names. You're not fooling anyone.

Max is certainly no newcomer to Strat, despite what he said on earlier posts, on and on, that's he's a total newcomer and winning crazy. No need to pretend, my friend, it's just a game. Saw posts on other Strat boards years ago. Keeps changing his name. The only thing I'd recommend, Max Power, is to keep your same name, it's OK to be open. Not necessary. Reputation is everything. That said, I like his results, Max rules --just be open and cool about who you are. We'd be fine with that.

Sorta off subject, but not totally...

Anyone here a member of the live draft league that Bernie hosted way way back when at the TSN offices in Manhattan??

Well, our dear friend Max Power is not too popular here. I actually like his spirit and gumption, and he's very talented, seems like a nice guy. True, he's got a high winning percentage on this recent handle, but I'm afraid he's likely played before under other names. You're not fooling anyone.

Max is certainly no newcomer to Strat, despite what he said on earlier posts, on and on, that's he's a total newcomer and winning crazy. No need to pretend, my friend, it's just a game. Saw posts on other Strat boards years ago. Keeps changing his name. The only thing I'd recommend, Max Power, is to keep your same name, it's OK to be open. Not necessary. Reputation is everything. That said, I like his results, Max rules --just be open and cool about who you are. We'd be fine with that.

LOL you're on a weird one lately. Thinking I'm able to remove posts on a thread I started and now this.

My name is Austin Davidson, I never claimed to be a newcomer to Strat but I started playing 365 in late 2020 under the name austinmdavidson, an account I had previously used only to purchase the digital ratings file. My Uncle Ross taught me Strat when I was a teenager. I didn't play it for 20 years then came back to it around 2016 to join a draft league with my uncle and brother. After a couple years of muddling through I started a project to convert the cards to WAR in a spreadsheet. Pelletier's materials were invaluable in that project. Joined a couple more draft leagues then finally dove into 365 during the pandemic, converting my existing spreadsheet for the purpose. That's it, pretty boring, believe it or not.

Cmon Max--leave us to our order-from-chaos theories.
Pelletier...haven't heard that name in a while...a definite innovator on analysis of this online game.
And if I recall, quite a saber-meister.

Hack thanks for making the boards un-boring!

And per my note about providing data--this is per the run differential thing

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/458720

Team leading the league in differential and in 3rd place

I have a whole bunch more that are similar

Not arguing against your point, because the +/- is definitely off with the results.

But in fairness to objectivity, you have to note that in just four of your wins, you were +58, scoring 17 to 19 runs each, as one example. They are spread evenly across the season so far.

So what? Well, you have a righty power team, have a salary balance shifted toward offense, and are in a league with at least six other parks favorable to RH power bats. So it would be expected you will achieve some lopsided wins.

Pythag, after all, is a crude measure. And the inherent weakness of an average or bulk value, like aggregated run diff, is that there is no such thing as an "average" game unless the distribution of scoring is perfectly gaussian/normal.
The interesting part is in the details--which vary.

An example of the weakness of a numerical average in non-normal distributions is illustrated by another example. Suppose you are describing the average wind direction and speed at a point on the earth and say it is zero mph. You would expect the data to show very little wind all year. But half the year it blows from the south at 200 mph. The other half from the north at 200 mph. Average zero--but it is never zero except when switching direction (for an instant). Granted runs are scalars yadda yadda--but the concept of the limitations of the bulk property of a numerical average is the same.

All that said, I feel the exact same way when I have strong run diff without the wins to show for it, no matter what.

And per my note about providing data--this is per the run differential thing

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/458720

Team leading the league in differential and in 3rd place

I have a whole bunch more that are similar

You "should" be 5 games up and instead you're 14 games back, that's just crazy.